Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study Page: 43 of 164
This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided to UNT Digital Library by the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.
Extracted Text
The following text was automatically extracted from the image on this page using optical character recognition software:
33
the potential to reduce the curb weight, but vehicles that use such materials will cost more. To
illustrate, an aluminum-intensive mid-size conventional car would weigh 31% less when power per
unit mass is held constant; however, such a car would cost $1,200 (1990 dollars) more (Stodolsky,
Vyas, and Cuenca 1995).
Table 2.3 in Chapter 2 shows the projected attributes of an HEV. Its mean power is
projected to be 79.6 kW in 2000, 99.1 kW in 2010 (a 24% increase), and 108.6 kW in 2020 (a 36%
increase). Two HEV range values, total and engine-only, are summarized in the table. A large
majority (94%) of the respondents expected the future HEV to be of the "range extender" type (that
is, vehicles with significant all-electric range). A small battery range indicates that the respondent
did not expect the HEV to be a "range extender," because it would not be charged through the
electric grid. Only 7 respondents in the year 2000 and 5 respondents each in 2010 and 2020 projected
very small battery-only ranges.
The mean total range of an HEV is projected to be 353 km in 2000, 469 km in 2010 (a 33%
increase), and 527 km in 2020 (a 49% increase). The total range is less than the range of a
conventional vehicle (500-550 km) until 2020, which indicates that the respondents did not see
HEVs being used for vacations and long trips until after 2010. The mean engine range is 215 km in
2000, 257 km in 2010 (a 20% increase), and 281 km in 2020 (a 31% increase). The engine range
does not increase as much as the total range. The respondents saw the battery supplying more of the
HEV range, increasing from 39% of the total range in 2000 to 47% in 2020.
The mean curb weight of an HEV is 1,556 kg in 2000, 1,382 kg in 2010 (a 11% reduction),
and 1,265 kg in 2020 (a 19% reduction). The rate of weight reduction is slightly lower than the rate
for an EV (see above). The respondents saw an HEV as being slightly heavier than an EV.
Vehicle Costs
Vehicle purchase prices are summarized in Table 3.1, and fuel and maintenance costs are
summarized in Table 3.2. The respondents projected the conventional vehicle to cost 26% more by
2000, 60% more by 2010, and 102% more by 2020. The respondents expected both EVs and HEVs
to cost more than the conventional vehicle through the projection period (2000-2020), although they
projected minimal increases in EV and HEV prices during the period (4% and 3%, respectively).
With the projected 61% increase in the conventional vehicle price between 2000 and 2020 and the
above-mentioned minimal increases in EV and HEV prices, the price gaps between conventional and
new technology vehicles would narrow over time. An EV is projected to cost 82% more than a
conventional vehicle in the year 2000, 44% more in 2010, and 18% more in 2020. The least
expensive HEV, an ICE-powered version, would cost 97% more than a conventional vehicle in 2000,
52% more in 2010, and 25% more in 2020. A fuel-cell HEV is projected to be the most expensive
Upcoming Pages
Here’s what’s next.
Search Inside
This report can be searched. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document.
Tools / Downloads
Get a copy of this page or view the extracted text.
Citing and Sharing
Basic information for referencing this web page. We also provide extended guidance on usage rights, references, copying or embedding.
Reference the current page of this Report.
Vyas, A. D.; Ng, H. K.; Santini, D. J. & Anderson, J. L. Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study, report, December 1, 1997; Illinois. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc708199/m1/43/: accessed May 7, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.