Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study

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Description

To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of ... continued below

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164 p.

Creation Information

Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Santini, D.J. & Anderson, J.L. December 1, 1997.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

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Description

To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of other factors that will influence the degree of market success of electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies. Responses by industry participants, the largest fraction among all the participating groups, are compared with the overall responses. An evaluation of changes between the two Delphi stages is also summarized. An analysis of battery replacement costs for various types is summarized, and variable operating costs for electric and hybrid vehicles are compared with those of conventional vehicles. A market penetration analysis is summarized, in which projected market shares from the survey are compared with predictions of shares on the basis of two market share projection models that use the cost and physical attributes provided by the survey. Finally, projections of market shares beyond the year 2020 are developed by use of constrained logit models of market shares, statistically fitted to the survey data.

Physical Description

164 p.

Notes

OSTI as DE98004172

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  • Other Information: PBD: Dec 1997

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  • Other: DE98004172
  • Report No.: ANL/ESD--36
  • Grant Number: W-31-109-ENG-38
  • DOI: 10.2172/650245 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 650245
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc708199

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Creation Date

  • December 1, 1997

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 12, 2015, 6:31 a.m.

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  • Dec. 16, 2015, 12:23 p.m.

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Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Santini, D.J. & Anderson, J.L. Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study, report, December 1, 1997; Illinois. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc708199/: accessed September 19, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.