Selection Bias and Sensitivity as Moderators of Prekindergarten Age-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Study Effects: A Meta-Analysis

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The age-cutoff regression discontinuity design (RDD) has emerged as one of the most rigorous quasi-experimental approaches to determining program effects of prekindergarten on literacy and numeracy outcomes for children at kindergarten entry. However, few pre-K meta-analyses have focused attention on validity threats. The current random-effects meta-regression tests the moderating effects of prominent threats to validity, selection bias and sensitivity, on impact estimates generated from age-cutoff regression discontinuity studies from large-scale programs. Results from averaging dependent standardized mean difference effects suggested small positive moderating effects of total attrition and robust 3-month bandwidths on reading effects, but not on math. However, these … continued below

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Stewart, Genea K. July 2023.

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  • Stewart, Genea K.

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The age-cutoff regression discontinuity design (RDD) has emerged as one of the most rigorous quasi-experimental approaches to determining program effects of prekindergarten on literacy and numeracy outcomes for children at kindergarten entry. However, few pre-K meta-analyses have focused attention on validity threats. The current random-effects meta-regression tests the moderating effects of prominent threats to validity, selection bias and sensitivity, on impact estimates generated from age-cutoff regression discontinuity studies from large-scale programs. Results from averaging dependent standardized mean difference effects suggested small positive moderating effects of total attrition and robust 3-month bandwidths on reading effects, but not on math. However, these results were not statistically significant. In contrast, results generated from robust variance estimation yielded a small statistically significant association between total attrition and math effects. These mixed results may warrant further research on prekindergarten evaluation methodology, evaluation estimation methods, and the totality of evidence used to inform policy.

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  • July 2023

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  • Sept. 21, 2023, 7:17 a.m.

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  • Dec. 12, 2023, 8:34 a.m.

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Stewart, Genea K. Selection Bias and Sensitivity as Moderators of Prekindergarten Age-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Study Effects: A Meta-Analysis, dissertation, July 2023; Denton, Texas. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc2179287/: accessed May 11, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .

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