Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor Page: 1 of 7
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p trick Ray is a senior at Indiana University of Pennsylvania
majoring in Physics Education. At Indiana University of
Pennsylvania, Patrick has been an active member in the Physics
Club and elected as an officer twice. He aspires to be a high school
Physics teacher. His research at INEEL, predicting global climate
trends using the ocean conveyor, has given him a better understand-
ing of scientific research and its impacts on the future. He hopes to
pass on this knowledge and his love of physics to his future students.James R. Wilson has been predicting the future for the US
J government for 26 years using probabilistic risk assessment.
Part of his work involved predicting climate at the Yucca Mountain
Nuclear Waste Repository one million years hence. Insights from this
work led to five published papers on global climate prediction and the
collaboration with Patrick Ray. Dr. Wilson is the manager of the
Centre for Future Technologies, Inc.LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE USING
THE OCEAN CONVEYOR
PATRICK RAY AND JAMES R. WILSON
ABSTRACT
Many have attributed t he Gr eat Ocean Conveyor as a maj or driver of global climate
change over millennia as well as a possible explanation f or shorter (mult idecadal)
oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000
years, however recent research has suggested that it is much f aster than previously
believed (about 100 years). A f aster conveyor leads tot he possibility of the conveyor's
role in even shorter oscillat ions such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven.
I n this study the salty outf lowof the Red Seaisusedtopredict itsbehavior ten
year s int o t he f ut ur e. A successf ul model could lead t o a long-t er m pr edict ion (ten
years) of El Niihos, At lant ic hurricane season int ensity, as well as global temperature
and precipitation patterns.INTRODUCTION
The Great Ocean Conveyor is a system of currents driven
by thermohaline circulation that spreads heat, salt, and nu-
trients around the Earth (See Figure 1). Thermohaline cir-
culation occurs largely in the North Atlantic, where, as water
flows northward from the tropical Atlantic, evaporation is
greater than precipitation, making the water saltier over time.
In the North Atlantic the water cools as it gives off heat and
the cooler, saltier water becomes more dense and sinks.
The deep water then flows southward, eventually joining the
Antarctic Circumpolar Current and spreading the water
throughout the oceans (Musgrave, 2000). The resulting
current system dwarfs the flow and size of any river system
on Earth. The conveyor is a major driver of global climate.
For example, Europe experiences a much warmer climate
than regions at the same latitude because of the heat it
receives from the warm northerly flowing conveyor in the
North Atlantic(Gray, 1998).
Traditionally, the conveyor cycle time is thought to be
on the order of a thousand years, precluding it from affecting
short-term climatic oscillations such as the El Nino/South-
ern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO). ENSO and NAO are believed to be affected by the
conveyor on multidecadal scales (Gray,1998). Research in-dicating that shorter oscillations (2 to 8 years) are linked to
the conveyor has not been located. New research suggests
that the cycle time of the conveyor is much faster, about
100 years (Wilson, 2001), allowing the conveyor to be a
more active player in short-term oscillations. The conveyor
is sensitive to changes in salinity, and Wilson suggests
that the ultra-saline Red Sea may play a major role in the
behavior of the conveyor (Wilson, 2001). Recently Red Sea
water has been found in eddies rounding the tip of Africa
(Philippens, 2001). The area lies along the path of the con-
veyor and shows that Red Sea water is indeed picked up by
the conveyor.
We suggest that the flow of the conveyor affects short-
term climatic oscillations such as those found in ENSO,
NAO, Atlantic hurricane activity, as well as typical tempera-
ture and precipitation trends around the globe. We also
suggest that an oscillating volume of salt entering the con-
veyor from the Red Sea causes salinity changes which in
turn cause the short-term oscillations.
The outflow of the Red Sea is not constant. More salt
enters the Gulf of Aden and eventually the Indian Ocean
when winds blow from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea.
When this happens, a two way flow is set up through the
Bab el Mandab Strait sending Red Sea water into the Gulf of
Aden where it is picked up by the conveyor. The winds inU.S. Department of Energy Journal of Undergraduate Research
http://www.scied.science.doe.gov
26
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Ray, P. & Wilson, J. R. Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor, article, January 1, 2003; United States. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc841200/m1/1/?rotate=0: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.