Postmortem Cost and Schedule Analysis - Lessons Learned On NCSX Page: 3 of 14
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POSTMORTEM COST & SCHEDULE ANALYSIS - LESSONS
LEARNED ON NCSX
a,e a a b a
R.L. Strykowsky , T. Brown , J. Chrzanowski , M. Cole , P. Heitzenroeder,
a c a
G.H. Neilsona, Donald Rej , and M. Viola
a
Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, PO Box 451, MS-40, Princeton, NJ 08543
bOak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831
CLos Alamos National Laboratory
ee-mail. rstrykow@pppl.gov
Abstract- The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was
designed to test physics principles of an innovative fusion energy confinement device
developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) and Oak Ridge
National Laboratory (ORNL) under contract from the US Department of Energy. The
project was technically very challenging, primarily due to the complex component
geometries and tight tolerances that were required. As the project matured these
challenges manifested themselves in significant cost overruns through all phases of
the project (i.e. design, R&D, fabrication and assembly). The project was
subsequently cancelled by the DOE in 2008. Although the project was not completed,
several major work packages, comprising about 65% of the total estimated cost
(excluding management and contingency), were completed, providing a data base of
actual costs that can be analyzed to understand cost drivers. Technical factors that
drove costs included the complex geometry, tight tolerances, material requirements,
and performance requirements. Management factors included imposed annual
funding constraints that throttled project cash flow, staff availability, and inadequate
R&D. Understanding how requirements and design decisions drove cost through this
top-down forensic cost analysis could provide valuable insight into the configuration
and design of future state-of-the art machines and other devices..
1. OVERVIEW
The compact stellarator was one of several innovative magnetic fusion plasma
configurations being investigated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of
Science (SC), Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (OFES). The promise of the
stellarator as a practical fusion concept lies in its potential to eliminate disruptions and
operate steady-state with minimal recirculation power. Due to its geometry, a
stellarator can generate significant rotational transform by currents in external magnet
coils and can stabilize limiting magneto hydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities by plasma
shaping instead of relying on active feedback control. However, since NCSX is one of
the first devices of its kind, the complex geometry and tight tolerance requirements
had an unanticipated impact on the total project cost and schedule. So as to better
appreciate NCSX's unique design and configuration challenges see Figures 1-5. Note
the two key components; the vacuum vessel and modular coil assembly.
Research supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 with
Princeton University and No. DE-AC05-000R22725 with UT-Battelle, LLC.)
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R. Strykowsky, T. Brown, J. Chrzanowski, M. Cole, P. Heitzenroeder, G.H. Neilson, Donald Rej, and M. Viola. Postmortem Cost and Schedule Analysis - Lessons Learned On NCSX, article, March 8, 2012; Princeton, New Jersey. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc827778/m1/3/?rotate=270: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.