Wavelet-Monte Carlo Hybrid System for HLW Nuclide Migration Modeling and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Page: 8 of 9
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WM'03 Conference, February 23-27, 2003, Tucson, AZ
CONCLUSIONS
This paper has described a series of computations performed for a purpose of determining the confidence
in predictions of future repository performance in a light of uncertainty in conceptual models and
parameters of those models. This prediction allowed the staff to focus attention on what is likely to be the
most important phenomena relative to repository performance, and point out deficiencies in the current
state of knowledge. The results of these analyses also feedback to the iterative performance assessment
and the issue resolution process, tying the parameters sensitivities
The knowledge gained by the preliminary sensitivity analyses identifies the importance of specific
modeling assumptions and input parameters. Furthermore, these preliminary analyses were used to
determine which of the many parameters could be held constant and which needed to be varying during
subsequent sensitivity analysis. In some cases these preliminary analyses led to change in the model. It is
also showed that, using of Wavelet Galerkin method leads to a minimization of the uncertainty introduced
by the approximation in the computational tool, which gives high accuracy. Statistical analysis of the base
scenario case was used to identify parameters that have the most effect on uncertainty in performance and
identify sensitive parameters for which a small input change can have large effect on the estimated
repository performance. Analysis indicates that parameters shown in Table II appear to have the most
effect on uncertainty in repository performance.
REFERENCES
1. Mohanty, S., and Wu, Y., "Mean-Based Sensitivity or Uncertainty Measures for
Identifying Influential Parameters", PSAM6, 6t Inter., Conf., on Probabilistic Safety Assessment
and Management, 23-28 June 2002, San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA.
2. Mc Key, M. D., Beckman, R. J., and Conover, W., J., "A Comparison of Three Methods
for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code",
Technometrics, Vol. 21, 2, pp. 239-245 (1979).
3. H. Nasif, A. Neyama, H. Umeki and A. Suzuki, "Wavelet Integrated System to Calculate
Radionuclide Release from a Repository in a Fractured Media", Accepted for publication in the Nuclear
Technology, November (2002).
4. Hold, A., "Statistical Theory with Engineering Applications", John Wiley and Sons, New York
(1952).
5. Morgan, M., G., and Henrion, M., "A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk
and Policy Analysis", Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990.
6. Helton, J., C., and Anderson, D., R., "Performance assessment for Radioactive Waste
Disposal", Risk Analysis, Vol., 19, 1999, pp 759-1016.
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Nasif, Hesham & Neyama, Atsushi. Wavelet-Monte Carlo Hybrid System for HLW Nuclide Migration Modeling and Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis, article, February 26, 2003; (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc778755/m1/8/: accessed April 30, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.