A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries

Thumbnail image of item number 1 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Thumbnail image of item number 2 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Thumbnail image of item number 3 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Thumbnail image of item number 4 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Showing 1-4 of 162 pages in this dissertation.

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

The purpose of this study was to develop a probabilistic model that could be used by petroleum refiners to evaluate the economic potential of refinery capital investment proposals. The following two requirements were placed on the development at the outset: (1) that the model use linear programming to simulate refinery operations; and (2) that the model keep computer time within reasonable bounds. A probabilistic model was developed that requires the following steps for its application: (1) use linear programming to simulate both the operations of the existing refinery and the operations assuming that the investment is made; (2) select two … continued below

Physical Description

3, viii, 152 leaves: ill.

Creation Information

Martin, William Basil, Jr. December 1972.

Context

This dissertation is part of the collection entitled: UNT Theses and Dissertations and was provided by the UNT Libraries to the UNT Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 38 times. More information about this dissertation can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this dissertation or its content.

Author

Chair

Committee Members

Publisher

Rights Holder

For guidance see Citations, Rights, Re-Use.

  • Martin, William Basil, Jr.

Provided By

UNT Libraries

The UNT Libraries serve the university and community by providing access to physical and online collections, fostering information literacy, supporting academic research, and much, much more.

About | Browse this Partner

Contact Us

Corrections Questions

What

Descriptive information to help identify this dissertation. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Degree Information

Description

The purpose of this study was to develop a probabilistic model that could be used by petroleum refiners to evaluate the economic potential of refinery capital investment proposals. The following two requirements were placed on the development at the outset: (1) that the model use linear programming to simulate refinery operations; and (2) that the model keep computer time within reasonable bounds. A probabilistic model was developed that requires the following steps for its application: (1) use linear programming to simulate both the operations of the existing refinery and the operations assuming that the investment is made; (2) select two variables that can be treated as probabilistic variables and assign either a theoretical or a subjective probability distribution to represent future values for the two variables; (3) develop return on investment interpolation data by computing a return on investment for all pair combinations of three tenth year values for each of the two probabilistic variables; (4) develop a return on investment distribution by selecting values at random from the two probability distributions and interpolating among the interpolation data to obtain return on investment data; (5) interpret the return on investment distribution. The model was applied to an actual refining situation that involved determining the expected internal rate of return of a proposed hydrocracker addition to a United States refinery. Total computer time required to evaluate the hydrocracker proposal was about 159 minutes. Accuracy of the interpolation feature of the model was also determined during the application. The average error of ten interpolated return figures that were selected at random for the accuracy check was 1.89 per cent.

Physical Description

3, viii, 152 leaves: ill.

Language

Item Type

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this dissertation in the Digital Library or other systems.

Collections

This dissertation is part of the following collection of related materials.

UNT Theses and Dissertations

Theses and dissertations represent a wealth of scholarly and artistic content created by masters and doctoral students in the degree-seeking process. Some ETDs in this collection are restricted to use by the UNT community.

About | Browse this Collection

What responsibilities do I have when using this dissertation?

Digital Files

When

Dates and time periods associated with this dissertation.

Creation Date

  • December 1972

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • May 10, 2015, 6:16 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • March 22, 2017, 10:55 a.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this dissertation last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 0
Total Uses: 38
More Statistics

Interact With This Dissertation

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

Thumbnail image of item number 1 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Thumbnail image of item number 2 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Thumbnail image of item number 3 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.
Thumbnail image of item number 4 in: 'A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries'.

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Citations, Rights, Re-Use

International Image Interoperability Framework

IIF Logo

We support the IIIF Presentation API

Links for Robots

Helpful links in machine-readable formats.

Archival Resource Key (ARK)

International Image Interoperability Framework (IIIF)

Metadata Formats

Images

URLs

Stats

Martin, William Basil, Jr. A Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Capital Investment Proposals for Petroleum Refineries, dissertation, December 1972; Denton, Texas. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc504025/: accessed July 18, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .

Back to Top of Screen