Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances

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We review recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean-heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal … continued below

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Barnett, T.; Zwiers, F.; Hegerl, G.; Allen, M.; Crowley, T.; Gillett, N. et al. January 26, 2005.

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We review recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean-heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that ''most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases''.

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PDF-file: 80 pages; size: 1 Mbytes

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  • Journal Name: Journal of Climate; Journal Volume: 18; Journal Issue: 9

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  • Report No.: UCRL-JRNL-209353
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 15017395
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc1418795

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  • January 26, 2005

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  • Jan. 23, 2019, 12:54 p.m.

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  • Jan. 25, 2019, 1:25 p.m.

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Thumbnail image of item number 1 in: 'Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances'.
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Barnett, T.; Zwiers, F.; Hegerl, G.; Allen, M.; Crowley, T.; Gillett, N. et al. Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances, article, January 26, 2005; Livermore, California. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1418795/: accessed July 16, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.

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