It is inevitable that new power plants will need to be constructed in the near future; however, it is unclear which technologies will be selected for these new plants. In a study for the US Department of Energy, the impacts of fuel prices, length of the planning period, and the characteristics of the generating system were examined for their influence on technology choice in 10 representative power pools. It was determined that natural gas combined-cycle technology was generally preferred for base-load and intermediate/cycling capacity when gas prices are low and the planning period is short (10 years). Integrated coal gasification combined-cycle plants were selected to serve most base-load requirements under other conditions. One aspect often overlooked in making a least-cost technology choice is system reliability: nonoptimal technology choices call be made if alternative expansion plans do not have the same level of reliability when discounted system costs are compared. Utilities have become capital averse due to a multitude of regulatory, market, and supply issues. Utilities are looking at natural gas technologies, since they offer rapid construction/deployment, low capital investment, and higher availability than coal-fired technologies. Of concern to state regulators is how to evaluate a least-cost plan. Key parameters studied were based on the following: (1) What is the impact of alternative gas projections on technology choice (2) What influence does the planning horizon (10 versus 30 years) have on technology choice (3) How important are existing system characteristics (e.g., mix of technologies, operating costs, load shape) on technology choice This paper summarizes the analysis framework and presents results for two power pools: Power Pool 1, the American Electric Power (AEP) service territory, and Power Pool 16, with all the utilities in Florida. 7 refs., 17 figs., 2 tabs. (JF)
