Since the violent military crackdown around Tiananmen Square, most Western observers have struggled to understand and explain three major questions concerning the Chinese situation: first, why a forward-looking and reform-minded Chinese leadership chose such violent force over a more accommodating approach toward the peaceful public protests of June 1989; second, how to assess current political and economic conditions in China in light of Tiananmen Square; and third, what the events of the last two years mean for China's future prospects.
Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu's concurrent two-year term as president of the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) and Prime Minister of Japan expires at the end of October 1991. The May 1991 death of Shintaro Abe, the front runner to replace him, opened the field to nearly a dozen candidates. These include Kaifu for another term, senior LDP faction leaders Kiichi Miyazawa, Michio Watanabe, and Hiroshi Mitsuzuka, former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, and several others. A clear favorite from this group has not emerged, in part because most except Kaifu are rumored to be involved in current and past stock market and banking scandals.
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