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China's Prospects After Tiananmen Square: Current Conditions, Future Scenarios, and a Survey of Expert Opinion
Since the violent military crackdown around Tiananmen Square, most Western observers have struggled to understand and explain three major questions concerning the Chinese situation: first, why a forward-looking and reform-minded Chinese leadership chose such violent force over a more accommodating approach toward the peaceful public protests of June 1989; second, how to assess current political and economic conditions in China in light of Tiananmen Square; and third, what the events of the last two years mean for China's future prospects.
China's Changing Conditions: Possible Implications for US Interests
This report discusses possible outcomes and implications for U.S. interests vary. For example, increasingly effective political administration and reform with continued successful economic modernization would be generally compatible with U.S. interests in greater economic opportunity, foreign policy cooperation, and political liberalization in China. Alternatively, Chinese administration, economic vitality, and internal cohesion could degenerate, limiting U.S. economic opportunities, challenging U.S. interests in stability in East Asia, but also diminishing potential threats from a strong China. Finally, China could develop formidable economic power while retaining authoritarian political control, with China emerging as a world power less interested in accommodating U.S. interests than in opposing them.
China's Changing Conditions
Congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China has grown substantially over the past few years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China fosters U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 and 1996 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. Present conditions in China include; A vibrant but sometimes overheated economy, A less divided central political leadership.
China's Changing Conditions
This report discusses congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China, which has grown substantially over the past two years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China foster U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiao-ping.
China's Changing Conditions
This report discusses congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China, which has grown substantially over the past two years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China foster U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.
China in Transition: Changing Conditions and Implications for U.S. Interests
Americans disagree as to whether or not China poses a serious security concern for U.S. interests in peace and security in Asia and the Pacific. Many point to rising Chinese defense capabilities and assertive rhetoric to warn of Chinese military- backed expansion. Others judge that the main danger comes from China's weakness. They argue that the possibility of an emerging breakdown in government authority in China could prompt regional disorder and refugee flows seriously undermining Asian stability. Still others see the Chinese "threat" as grossly exaggerated. They stress that Beijing leaders are in control of the country and see their interests best served by accommodation to their richer and generally better armed neighbors.
China's Changing Conditions
This report discusses congressional interest in the leadership change and economic transformation underway in China, which has grown substantially over the past two years. Leading congressional concerns focus on how economic conditions in China pose opportunities for U.S. enterprise and how the evolution of conditions in China foster U.S. security, economic, and political interests. Congressional concern with China grew in 1995 as a result of reports of the serious decline in the health of senior Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping.
China in Transition: Changing Conditions and Implications for U.S. Interests
Congressional interest in China's transformation has grown. Congressional concerns focus on economic opportunities in China and how conditions there affect U.S. security, economic and political interests.
China: Pending Legislation in the 105th Congress
This report tracks pending human rights legislation, including bills concerning: prison conditions and prison labor exports (H.R. 2195, H.R. 2358); coercive abortion practices (H.R. 2570); China’s policies toward religion (H.R. 967, H.R. 2431); and more general human rights issues (H.R. 2095). Other bills concern Taiwan — in particular, Taiwan’s entry into the World Trade Organization (H.Res. 190) and the U.S. role in helping Taiwan with a theater missile defense system (H.R. 2386). Also, legislation is pending on China’s missile proliferation activities (H.Res. 188), Radio Free Asia broadcasting to China (H.R. 2232), China’s participation in multilateral institutions (H.R. 1712, H.R. 2605), and the activities of China’s military and intelligence services (H.R. 2647, H.R. 2190).
China After Deng Xiaoping - Implications for the United States
Deng Xiaoping's death will create a vacuum at the center of political power in China. Successor leaders will decide whether to continue the recent collective leadership decision-making processes and policy emphasis on political stability and economic reform; or to press for political power in a search for personal or policy advantage. A struggle for political power in Beijing would complicate an already difficult set of problems of governance caused by rapid economic growth, social change, realignment of central and local power arrangements and other factors. Nevertheless, there are important reasons why China may effectively work its way through the leadership transition.
Hong Kong After Its Return to China: Implications for US Interests
Hong Kong's return to China on July 1, 1997, went surprisingly smoothly. In the ensuing months, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare in the longer run under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in recent years suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
Hong Kong's Return to China: Implications for U.S. Interests
In the months approaching China's resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in 1994-1995 suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
Hong Kong's Return to China: Implications for U.S. Interests
In the months approaching China's resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, policy analysts are trying to assess how the territory will fare under Chinese rule. The answer is important to U.S. interests because of the enormous U.S. economic presence in Hong Kong; because any adverse developments in Hong Kong are likely to affect U.S.-China relations; and because China's promise to give Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy under the "one-China, two-systems" policy has major implications for Taiwan. But given the political situation, the American ability to affect the course of events in Hong Kong seems marginal unless the U.S. decides to confront Beijing more directly. Developments in U.S.-China relations in 1994-1995 suggest Washington might be hesitant to do so.
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