What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country? Page: 58
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CONCLUSION
This study attempted to explain why some countries experience multiple civil wars while
others who have experienced a civil war build long-term stability from the rubble of conflict. In
this study I defined long-term stability as the lack of the recurrence of another civil war. My
explanation of why civil war recurs focuses on the collective action problem and centers on the
rebel leaders' ability to solve the Rebel's Dilemma. It is difficult to measure the leadership
abilities of various rebel groups; however we can measure the environment, which either helps or
hinders the rebel leader's ability to solve the collective action problem. I further argue that once
the Rebel's Dilemma has been solved once it is much easier for rebel leaders to solve it again
and again.
The empirical findings suggest that the political situation resulting from the first war
plays a strong role in the solutions to the collective action problem and thus the long-term
stability following a civil war. In particular the level of democracy, partition and third party
enforcement of the peace all affected the ability of the rebel leaders' to solve the collective action
problem and the likelihood of another civil war. The level of democracy was found to have a
negative effect on recurrence. The presence of partition was also found to have a similar and
somewhat strong effect on the likelihood of another civil war. Interestingly, the presence of a
third party guarantor following a civil war was found to increase the probability of another
conflict. The findings do not support the notion that the presence of lootable goods makes
recurrence more likely. Nor is an identity conflict more or less likely to recur. Quality of life
also had little effect on the likelihood of recurrence.
This analysis also suggest that in the research agenda focusing on civil wars it may be
necessary for researchers to agree to some "basic" definitions such as what is a civil war. It is58
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Kohler, Matthew. What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country?, thesis, December 2005; Denton, Texas. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4955/m1/62/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .