What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country? Page: 56
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There is little evidence that the presence of lootable goods affects the likelihood of
recurrence. It may be that the use or misuse of lootable goods exacerbates and lengthens the
conflict, as suggested by Collier et al. (2004). However, they had little effect on the recurrence
and thus the long-term stability of a country. This finding is at odds with the arguments of
Collier et al. (2004).
It should also be noted that repression was not significant in model 1 and 2. However, I
also argue that repression's influence on the recurrence of another civil war was not sufficiently
disproved due to the dearth of observation. It is likely that if we had the data on repression for
the full time period covered by the Doyle and Sambanis (2000a) data set, we may see a different
result.
What was not significant is just as interesting as what was significant. Among those
variables that were found to not have an effect or limited effect on the recurrence of civil war
were the level of complexity of the agreement following the first war, the presence of lootable
goods, the relationship of lootable goods in countries that were either mildly democratic or
mildly authoritarian, identity wars, and the level of economic development. Interestingly, this
study does not support the findings of Hartzell and Hoddie (2003a) and Fortna (2003). The
complexity of an agreement in all of the models did not reach the standard acceptable levels of
significance.28 The life expectancy during the year before the war was also found to have little
28 Complex agreements measured in terms of the number of paragraphs in a settlement (Fortna 2003) and
the measure purposed Hartzell and Hoddie (2003a) were found to not be significant. However; it should be noted
that I could not find the text on the agreements for the following civil wars coded by Doyle and Sambanis (2000a
and 2000b) as having a settlement: Central Africa 1995-1997, Chad 1965-1979, Djibouti 1965, Djibouti 1991-1995,
India Partition 1946-1948, Lebanon 1958, Lebanon 1975-1978, Mali 1990-1995, Namibia 1965-1989, Philippines-
NPA 1972-1992, Russia-Chechnya 1994-1996, Rwanda 1990-1994, Sudan 1963-1972 and Zimbabwe/Rhodesia
1972-1980. These settlements were left as missing values and were thus left out of the logit regressions. I searched
all the sources mentioned by most of the authors in the literature review as well as several internet source including:
The United States Institute for Peace, The Jewish Virtual Library, International Conflict Research and the Yemen
Gateway. It is arguable that the inclusion of these missing cases may well have effect the findings; however, since56
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Kohler, Matthew. What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country?, thesis, December 2005; Denton, Texas. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4955/m1/60/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .