What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country? Page: 16
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success (full settlement of the issue under mediation), partial success (cease fires, partial
agreement), and failures. The waiting time until the next use of force is tested using a
conditional Cox hazard model, and duration until the nest use of force is measured in the months.
Lastly the rivalry severity of change is tested using ordered logit. The measurement of severity is
derived for from Diehl and Goertz (2000). Mediation is which there is no severity reduction or
an increase in the severity of the next dispute is coded as a 0. Moderate improvement in the
severity of the dispute or severity reduction between 1 and 80 units was coded as a 1. Sizeable
improvements in the severity level of the next dispute or severity reduction larger than 80 points
are coded as a 2. The dispute severity is measure on a 0 to 200-unit scale, which reflects the
general level of hostility and the number of battle deaths resulting for the dispute (Greig 2001:
700-706).
Although Greig (2001) proposes that these steps relate to interstate mediation success,
they can be applied to intrastate conflicts.
First, the cost and pain that develops throughout the lifetime of a rivalry carry important
consequences for the ability of mediation efforts to improve the rivalry relationship.
Second, the perception among rivals that they are unlikely to unilaterally alter the rivalry
status quo in their favor is likely to encourage them to begin to pursue more cooperative
strategies toward one another. Third, the level of threat, both inside and outside the
rivalry, perceived by the rivals is likely to have a powerful influence on the degree to
which rivals are open to international mediation efforts. Fourth, internal political changes
within rivals are open to international mediation efforts will translate into an
improvement in the rivalry relationship. Finally, the belief among rivals that a basis for
settlement, a way out, exists improves the prospect for mediation success. (693).
Third-party interventions can be in the form of economic, military or a mixture of both
economic and military. Regan (1996) assumes that third parties intervene in intrastate conflicts
to end the violence connected with the underlying quarrel. He further assumes that third parties
see Carment and Rowlands (2003) for a case study of Sri Lanka 1987 and Kosovo 1998 and the effects of biased of
interventions.16
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Kohler, Matthew. What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country?, thesis, December 2005; Denton, Texas. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4955/m1/20/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .