What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country? Page: 15
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and/or military assistance to either party. Interventions can be biased or unbiased. According to
Enterline and Balch-Lindsay (2000), "regardless of whether third parity interventions are
benevolent or malevolent, their actions are strategic."4 These conflict management techniques
are used by third party intermediaries, which consist of nation-states or a coalition of states,
transnational or subnational organizations, ad hoc commissions, individuals, or any other actor
with international standing (Dixon 1996).
Bercovitch and Regan (1997) explore how mediation achieves the goals of a state at risk
by comparing mediation performance and effectiveness of states to those with a history of past
conflict and a considerable risk of future conflict compared to other states. Risk is defined as the
probability that an action or its absence may produce an undesirable outcome. Bercovitch and
Regan (1997) found that actual states at risk have not used mediation as a way to manage their
conflict. They further argue that mediation is resorted to with an equal frequency by all states.
They also found that risky states would not experience more directive strategies and that these
strategies are more likely to transform a relationship than other strategies. Risky states are
predisposed to engage in successive conflicts and incur the risk of engaging in further militarized
disputes.
Mediation success is influenced by five contextual factors, which relate to the "ripeness"
of the situation. Greig (2001) examines ripeness for mediation between enduring rivals by
focusing on mediation success in both the short term and the long term. The unit of analysis of
the study is mediation attempt. Short-term mediation outcomes are tested using ordered logit
and is measured using trichotomous mediation outcome variables, which are differentiated as full
4 According to Enterline and Balch-Lindsay (2000), "some third parties might prefer to end civil wars
rapidly for humanitarian reasons, other third parties might prefer to prolong the duration of civil wars with an eye
toward plundering the natural resources of the civil war state, or draining the resources of a rival third party." Also,15
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Kohler, Matthew. What Can the Collective Action Problem Tell Us about the Recurrence of Civil War and the Long-term Stability of a Country?, thesis, December 2005; Denton, Texas. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4955/m1/19/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; .