Cancer increase study methodology: A review and discussion of the ``Southeastern Massachusetts Health Study 1978--1986`` Page: 8 of 43
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
In response to reports of increased rates of leukemia in the area around
the Pilgrim 1 Nuclear Power Plant (subsequently referred to as Pilgrim or the
Pilgrim plant) near Plymouth. Massachusetts, the Massachusetts Department of
Public Health (MDPH) conducted an epidemiologic case-control study of adult
leukemia in 22 towns in southeastern Massachusetts. This study resulted in a
report entitled "Southeastern Massachusetts Health Study 1978-1986" (SMHS)
released by the MDPH in October 1990. The report noted an association between
risk of leukemia and proximity to the Pilgrim plant.
Questions have been raised regarding methods employed in the SMHS and
interpretation of findings. Thus, a bipartisan review committee was
established by the MDPH and Boston Edison Company. The committee issued a
report (Hoffman et al. 1992) in October 1992 that considered the study's
design and conduct and interpreted results in terms of existing knowledge
regarding radiation and cancer risks. Other reviews have also been conducted
during the 2 years since the report was issued (Congel and Willis 1992: Poole
1991a, 1991b; Poole, Rothman. and Dreyer 1990).
In this report, we review the SMHS and related documents. We consider
the design and key findings of the study. We examine these findings in the
context of other epidemiologic studies of leukemia risks associated with
radiation exposure. Our conclusion is that, although the SMHS demonstrated an
association between leukemia risk and indices of exposure to releases from
Pilgrim. this association can not realistically be interpreted as causal.
This conclusion is based primarily on three factors: 1) incongruent temporal
relationships between measured Pilgrim releases and increased risk, 2) a lack
of consistency with estimates of risk from other epidemiologic studies, and 3)
discrepancies between actual mortality rates and numbers of cases and those
projected to occur in the vicinity based on the risks estimated by the SMHS.
However, there are no obvious methodologic problems with study design or
conduct that provide an answer for the study's inconsistent findings.1.1
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Sever, L. E.; Baker, D. A.; Gilbert, E. S. & Mahaffey, J. A. Cancer increase study methodology: A review and discussion of the ``Southeastern Massachusetts Health Study 1978--1986``, report, September 1, 1993; Richland, Washington. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1399643/m1/8/: accessed July 16, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.