Planning for a Program Design for Energy Environmental Analysis. Progress Report, January 1, 1975--March 31, 1975 Page: 23 of 24
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I
- 20 -
Finally we can extend the analysis to include the importance of a particular factor
in realizing a possible future scenario. That is, for each factor what are the pair-
wise comparisons of the contribution of this factor to the possible future scenarios
(S1 = using oil, S2 = using coal, and S3 = using nuclear).
F1 = cost of energy F2 = environmental F3 = level of energy
quality reserves
S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3
S1 1.00 .33 .14 ,S1 1.00 6.00 5.00. S1 1.00 .11 .33
S2 3.00 1.00 .20. S2 .17 1.00 .50 S2 9.00 1.00 6.00
S3 7.00 5.00 1.00 S3 .20 2.00 1.00 S3 3.00 .17 1.00
S = use of oil
S2 = use of coal
S3 = use of nuclear
Let us define the corresponding dominant eigenvectors to the matrices Fl, F2, and
F3 to be i1, i2, and i3, which when concatenated for the matrix I yields
F1 F2 F3
S1 .081 .726 .068
I i1 i2 i3j S2 .188 .102 .770
S .731 .172 .162
3
Multiplication of I by the vector C yields the vector D which is the overall weighting
of the possible future scenarios (the composite scenario) that is based on the hier-
archal weighting of actors influence, objectives intensity, and factors importance.
.209 S
D=IC= .370 S2
.421 S3
In this particular example, as one might expect, the use of nuclear energy in producing
the future's electric power returned the highest weight. We must recall that this
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Denton, Jesse C. Planning for a Program Design for Energy Environmental Analysis. Progress Report, January 1, 1975--March 31, 1975, report, January 1, 1975; United States. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1055283/m1/23/: accessed July 16, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.