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Analysis of sequential exchanges between vulnerable forces

Description: A multi-stage and -step analysis of sequences of crises or exchanges shows that aggressiveness on one side can induce rapid counter-value strikes by the other as well and knowledge that opponents will later become less aggressive does not mitigate the tendency to strike early in crises.
Date: September 4, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Economic impacts study

Description: This is a progress report on the first phase of a project to measure the economic impacts of a rapidly changing U.S. target base. The purpose of the first phase is to designate and test the macroeconomic impact analysis model. Criteria were established for a decision-support model. Additional criteria were defined for an interactive macroeconomic impact analysis model. After a review of several models, the Economic Impact Forecast System model of the U.S. Army Construction Research Laboratory was selected as the appropriate input-output tool that can address local and regional economic analysis. The model was applied to five test cases to demonstrate its utility and define possible revisions to meet project criteria. A plan for EIFS access was defined at three levels. Objectives and tasks for scenario refinement are proposed.
Date: September 30, 1988
Creator: Brunsen, W.; Worley, W. & Frost, E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Freedom to mix vulnerable offensive and defensive forces

Description: The freedom to mix offense and defense to expand without diminishing either side`s second strike capability is shown to be counterproductive at large numbers of missiles; effective at intermediate numbers; and progressively less effective at modest numbers. Solutions are less stable for large second strikes.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The incorporation of high resolution climatological data into environmental tactical decision aids.

Description: The environment can significantly impact the performance of weapons systems and how they are used in a theater of operations. A tool has been developed by the US Army Research Laboratory (ARL) to enable operators to assess the impact of environmental factors on the performance of military systems, subsystems, and components. The ARL system, the Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA) takes weather and environmental data and compares them to a set of rules that relate environmental parameters to weapons system performance. The results from the IWEDA system can enable operators to identify regions and time periods when weapons system performance may be marginal or unfavorable. The Department of Defense (DOD) Air and Space Natural Environment (ASNE) Executive Agents have developed a program, the Advanced Climate Modeling and Environmental Simulations (ACMES), to produce high resolution gridded data for use in generating high resolution climate statistics from simulated weather observations at any desired location around the world. It is intended that data from the ACMES effort could be used by commanders to assess the environmental effects on operations. This paper describes an effort to use data generated from ACMES to drive the IWEDA rules on system performance. The results from this effort are high resolution, gridded values of weapons performance statistics that can be used to support the mission planning cycle.
Date: September 23, 1999
Creator: Hummel, J. R.; Campbell, A. P.; Kehrer, M. L.; Lurie, G. R. & Simunich, K. L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The Manhattan Project: Making the atomic bomb

Description: This article is a short history of the origins and development of the American atomic bomb program during World War II. Beginning with the scientific developments of the pre-war years, the monograph details the role of US government in conducting a secret, nationwide enterprise that took science from the laboratory and into combat with an entirely new type of weapon. The monograph concludes with a discussion of the immediate postwar period, the debate over the Atomic Energy Act of 1946, and the founding of the Atomic Energy Commission.
Date: September 1, 1994
Creator: Gosling, F. G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Military airborne and maritime application for cooperative behaviors.

Description: As part of DARPA's Software for Distributed Robotics Program within the Information Processing Technologies Office (IPTO), Sandia National Laboratories was tasked with identifying military airborne and maritime missions that require cooperative behaviors as well as identifying generic collective behaviors and performance metrics for these missions. This report documents this study. A prioritized list of general military missions applicable to land, air, and sea has been identified. From the top eight missions, nine generic reusable cooperative behaviors have been defined. A common mathematical framework for cooperative controls has been developed and applied to several of the behaviors. The framework is based on optimization principles and has provably convergent properties. A three-step optimization process is used to develop the decentralized control law that minimizes the behavior's performance index. A connective stability analysis is then performed to determine constraints on the communication sample period and the local control gains. Finally, the communication sample period for four different network protocols is evaluated based on the network graph, which changes throughout the task. Using this mathematical framework, two metrics for evaluating these behaviors are defined. The first metric is the residual error in the global performance index that is used to create the behavior. The second metric is communication sample period between robots, which affects the overall time required for the behavior to reach its goal state.
Date: September 1, 2004
Creator: Feddema, John Todd; Byrne, Raymond Harry & Robinett, Rush D. III
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

National Security Strategy: Legislative Mandates, Execution to Date, and Considerations for Congress

Description: This report reviews current legislative mandates for security strategic documents, assesses the recent history of execution, describes strategic documents in related fields for comparison, presents considerations that may be useful in assessing current requirements and execution, and notes several current proposals for changes to legislative requirements.
Date: September 23, 2008
Creator: Dale, Catherine
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: Impacts of a military disruption on Navy fuel availability and quality

Description: The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of a severe military disruption on the production of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel in the year 1995. The global petroleum supply reduction due to the disruption was about 40 percent of the business-as-usual supply. Regional production cost increases for JP-5 were between $3 and $11 per gallon during the disruption. For F-76, the production cost increases were between $3 and $5 per gallon. The disruption caused substantial degradations for certain fuel quality properties of F-76 produced in the Pacific basin and in southern Europe. During both business-as-usual and disruption, the most prevalent Navy fuel quality problem was F-76 instability due to high levels of light cycle oils. 37 refs., 1 fig., 21 tabs.
Date: September 1, 1990
Creator: Hadder, G.R. & Davis, R.M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Optimal control for competitive-cooperative systems: Modeling flexible coalitions in tomorrow`s competitive world

Description: The last years have witnessed a dramatic shift of the world`s military, political, and economic paradigm from a bi-polar competitive gridlock to a more fluid, multi-player environment. This change has necessarily been followed by a re-evaluation of the strategic thinking and by a reassessment of mutual positions, options, and decisions. The essential attributes of the new situation are modeled by a system of nonlinear evolution equations with competitive/cooperative interactions. The mathematical setting is quite general to accommodate models related to military confrontation, arms control, economic competition, political negotiations, etc. Irrespective of the specific details, all these situations share a common denominator, namely the presence of various players with different and often changing interests and goals. The interests, ranging from conflicting to consensual, are defined in a context of interactions between the players that vary from competitive to cooperative. Players with converging interests tend to build up cooperative coalitions while coalitions with diverging interests usually compete among themselves, but this is not an absolute requirement (namely, one may have groups with converging interests and competitive interactions, and vice-versa). Appurtenance to a coalition may change in time according to the shift in one`s perceptions, interests, or obligations. During the time evolution, the players try to modify their strategies as to best achieve their respective goals. An objective functional quantifying the rate of success (payoff) vs. effort (cost) measures the degree of goal attainment for all players involved, thus selecting an optimal strategy based on optimal controls. While the technical details may vary from problem to problem, the general approach described here establishes a standard framework for a host of concrete situations that may arise from tomorrow`s {open_quotes}next competition{close_quotes}.
Date: September 1, 1994
Creator: Lenhart, S. & Protopopescu, V.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Stability versus first strike costs during deep reductions

Description: Reducing missile forces ultimately increases stability. However, for vulnerable forces, that increase is accompanied by an increase in first strike costs, which would disincentivize force reductions. For survivable forces there is a useful region in which weapon reductions could increase stability while reducing first strike costs.
Date: September 10, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Superpressure Stratospheric Vehicle

Description: Our need for wide-band global communications, earth imaging and sensing, atmospheric measurements and military reconnaissance is extensive, but growing dependence on space-based systems raises concerns about vulnerability. Military commanders require space assets that are more accessible and under local control. As a result, a robust and low cost access to space-like capability has become a national priority. Free floating buoyant vehicles in the middle stratosphere can provide the kind of cost effective access to space-like capability needed for a variety of missions. These vehicles are inexpensive, invisible, and easily launched. Developments in payload electronics, atmospheric modeling, and materials combined with improving communications and navigation infrastructure are making balloon-borne concepts more attractive. The important milestone accomplished by this project was the planned test flight over the continental United States. This document is specifically intended to review the technology development and preparations leading up to the test flight. Although the test flight experienced a payload failure just before entering its assent altitude, significant data were gathered. The results of the test flight are presented here. Important factors included in this report include quality assurance testing of the balloon, payload definition and characteristics, systems integration, preflight testing procedures, range operations, data collection, and post-flight analysis. 41 figs., 5 tabs.
Date: September 15, 1990
Creator: Chocol, C.; Robinson, W. & Epley, L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department