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Addressing questions about including environmental effects in the DMSO HLA

Description: The Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is developing a High Level Architecture (HLA) to support the DOD Modeling and Simulation (M and S) community. Many, if not all, of the simulations involve the environment in some fashion. In some applications, the simulation takes place in an acknowledged environment without any environmental functionality being taken into account. The Joint Training Federation Prototype (JTFp) is one of several prototype efforts that have been created to provide a test of the DMSO HLA. In addition to addressing the applicability of the HLA to a training community, the JTFp is also one of two prototype efforts that is explicitly including environmental effects in their simulation effort. These two prototyping efforts are examining the issues associated with the inclusion of the environment in an HLA federation. In deciding whether or not to include an environmental federation in the JTFp effort, a number of questions have been raised about the environment and the HLA. These questions have raised the issue of incompatibility between the environment and the HLA and also shown that there is something unique about including the environment in simulations. The purpose of this White Paper, which was developed with inputs from the National Air and Space [Warfare] Model Program among others, is to address the various questions that have been posed about including environmental effects in an HLA simulation.
Date: October 1, 1996
Creator: Hummel, J.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Advanced information science and object-oriented technology for information management applications

Description: The role of the military has been undergoing rapid change since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The kinds of missions the US military has been asked to participate in have often fallen into the category of {open_quotes}Military Operations Other Than War{close_quotes} and those involving military responses have been more of a surgical nature directed against different kinds of threats, like rogue states or in response to terrorist actions. As a result, the requirements on the military planner and analyst have also had to change dramatically. For example, preparing response options now requires rapid turnaround and a highly flexible simulation capability. This in turn requires that the planner or analyst have access to sophisticated information science and simulation technologies. In this paper, we shall discuss how advanced information science and object-oriented technologies can be used in advanced information management applications. We shall also discuss how these technologies and tools can be applied to DoD applications by presenting examples with a system developed at Argonne, the Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS). DIAS has been developed to exploit advanced information science and simulation technologies to provide tools for future planners and analysts.
Date: October 1, 1996
Creator: Hummel, J.R. & Swietlik, C.E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Advanced techniques for the analysis of crisis stability, deterrence, and latency

Description: Studies on crisis stability, deterrence, and latency are presented in chronological order, which also reflects their logical order of development, captures the main features of stability analysis; relates first strike, crisis, and arms control stability as seen from US and Russian perspective; and addresses questions such as whether uncertainty in damage preference or defense deployment can be destabilizing. It illustrates the problems with alternative metrics, latency and reconstitution, and deep unilateral and proportional force reductions.
Date: December 1, 1997
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The application of cooperative monitoring techniques to a conceptual limited deployment zone in the Korean peninsula

Description: The Korean peninsula is the site of a tense military confrontation. Relations between North and South Korea improved during the early 1990`s but the process is now frozen. Confidence building measures, particularly military ones, that address the security needs of both countries would decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment for direct negotiations. The Korean Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) analyzed current security conditions and options. Their scenario includes a conceptual agreement to establish Limited Force Deployment Zones (LDZ) along the current demilitarized zone (DMZ) to increase mutual security. The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories, in collaboration with KIDA, developed a strategy, with examples, for cooperatively monitoring the agreement. A cooperative monitoring regime requires consideration of the agreement`s terms, the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors of the Korean environment, and the capability of technology to monitor the terms. This paper assesses the applicability of cooperative monitoring to Korea, describes the monitoring strategy for the Korean enhanced DMZ scenario, and describes the applicable technologies and procedures.
Date: October 1, 1996
Creator: Vannoni, M. & Duggan, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Attack optimization at moderate force levels

Description: Optimal offensive missile allocations for moderate offensive and defensive forces are derived and used to study their sensitivity to force structure parameters levels. It is shown that the first strike cost is a product of the number of missiles and a function of the optimum allocation. Thus, the conditions under which the number of missiles should increase or decrease in time is also determined by this allocation.
Date: April 1, 1997
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Automated military unit identification in battlefield simulation

Description: It is the nature of complex systems, composed of many interacting elements, that unanticipated phenomena develop. Computer simulation, in which the elements of a complex system are implemented as interacting software objects (actors), is an effective tool to study collective and emergent phenomena in complex systems. A new cognitive architecture is described for constructing simulation actors that can, like the intelligent elements they represent adapt to unanticipated conditions. This cognitive architecture generates trial behaviors, estimates their fitness using an internal representation of the system, and has an internal apparatus for evolving a population of trial behaviors to changing environmental conditions. A specific simulation actor is developed to evaluate surveillance radar images of moving vehicles on battlefields. The vehicle cluster location, characterization and discrimination processes currently performed by intelligent human operators were implemented into a parameterized formation recognition process by using a newly developed family of 2D cluster filters. The mechanics of these cluster filters are described. Preliminary results are presented in which this GSM actor demonstrates the ability not only to recognize military formations under prescribed conditions, but to adapt its behavior to unanticipated conditions that develop in the complex simulated battlefield system.
Date: May 1, 1997
Creator: Stroud, P. & Gordon, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Average deployments versus missile and defender parameters

Description: This report evaluates the average number of reentry vehicles (RVs) that could be deployed successfully as a function of missile burn time, RV deployment times, and the number of space-based interceptors (SBIs) in defensive constellations. Leakage estimates of boost-phase kinetic-energy defenses as functions of launch parameters and defensive constellation size agree with integral predictions of near-exact calculations for constellation sizing. The calculations discussed here test more detailed aspects of the interaction. They indicate that SBIs can efficiently remove about 50% of the RVs from a heavy missile attack. The next 30% can removed with two-fold less effectiveness. The next 10% could double constellation sizes. 5 refs., 7 figs.
Date: March 1, 1991
Creator: Canavan, G.H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Computer based terrain analysis for operational planning

Description: Analysis of operational capability is an ongoing task for military commanders. In peacetime, most analysis is conducted via computer based combat simulations, where selected force structures engage in simulated combat to gain insight into specific scenarios. The command and control (C/sup 2/) mechanisms that direct combat forces are often neglected relative to the fidelity of representation of mechanical and physical entities. C/sup 2/ capabilities should include the ability to plan a mission, monitor execution activities, and redirect combat power when appropriate. This paper discusses the development of a computer based approach to mission planning for land warfare. The aspect emphasized is the computation and representation of relevant terrain features in the context of operational planning.
Date: January 1, 1987
Creator: Powell, D.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: A conceptual development for the cooperative monitoring of limited-force deployment zones

Description: Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of North and South Korea could decrease the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and help create an environment in which to negotiate a peace regime. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories collaborated to identify potential CBMs and define associated monitoring. The project is a conceptual analysis of political and technical options for confidence building that might be feasible in Korea at some future time. KIDA first analyzed current security conditions and options for CBMs. Their conclusions are presented as a hypothetical agreement to strengthen the Armistice Agreement by establishing Limited Force Deployment Zones along the Military Demarcation Line. The goal of the hypothetical agreement is to increase mutual security and build confidence. The CMC then used KIDA`s scenario to develop a strategy for cooperative monitoring the agreement. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing and sharing of agreed information among parties to an agreement and typically relies on the use of commercially available technology. A cooperative monitoring regime must be consistent with the agreement`s terms; the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors in the Korean setting; and the capabilities of monitoring technologies. This report describes the security situation on the Korean peninsula, relevant precedents from other regions, the hypothetical agreement for reducing military tensions, a monitoring strategy for the hypothetical Korean agreement, examples of implementation, and a description of applicable monitoring technologies and procedures.
Date: April 1, 1997
Creator: Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R.; Nam, M.K.; Moon, K.K. & Kim, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Confirming the Lanchestrian linear-logarithmic model of attrition

Description: This paper is the fourth in a series of reports on the breakthrough research in historical validation of attrition in conflict. Significant defense policy decisions, including weapons acquisition and arms reduction, are based in part on models of conflict. Most of these models are driven by their attrition algorithms, usually forms of the Lanchester square and linear laws. None of these algorithms have been validated. The results of this paper confirm the results of earlier papers, using a large database of historical results. The homogeneous linear-logarithmic Lanchestrian attrition model is validated to the extent possible with current initial and final force size data and is consistent with the Iwo Jima data. A particular differential linear-logarithmic model is described that fits the data very well. A version of Helmbold's victory predicting parameter is also confirmed, with an associated probability function. 37 refs., 73 figs., 68 tabs.
Date: December 1, 1990
Creator: Hartley, D.S. III.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Considerations in missile reductions and de-alerting

Description: Earlier analyses assumed that all survivable forces could withstand first strikes and retaliate. Only those on alert, at sea, or capable of launching under attack meet that assumption. The sensitivity of those results to non-alert forces is discussed. Reduced alert rates decrease stability indices, primarily by reducing second strikes. Survivable, mobile Russian ICBMs could increase both sides stability. Dealerting hastens expected reductions and raises the possibility of abuse. And the low-force goal of arms reductions has some poorly understood and awkward attributes.
Date: April 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Control of entity interactions in a hierarchical variable resolution simulation

Description: There has long been interest in variable resolution modeling to support military analysis for a broad range of interest areas. Despite the ever-present desire for models of greater fidelity at the expense of analysis and computation resources, models of moderate to low fidelity are still required at many levels of decision-making. Problems can arise due to the issue of consistency among the family of models used for analysis. To address this and other problems, models of variable resolution have been suggested. However, such variable resolution architectures inherently carry their own set of issues which must be resolved in order to be useful. First, what are the structural requirements for a variable resolution model; and second, how are interactions between entities governed, especially when the entities have different resolutions? This paper addresses these issues and discusses key mechanisms needed to develop a variable resolution combat simulation that meets several core requirements for such models: seamless aggregation/disaggregation, appropriate interactions between entities of differing resolution, and control of the aggregation/disaggregation process.
Date: October 1, 1997
Creator: Powell, D.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Control of entity interactions in a hierarchical variable resolution simulation

Description: There has long been interest in variable resolution modeling to support military analysis for a broad range of interest areas. Despite the ever-present desire for models of greater fidelity at the expense of analysis and computation resources, models of moderate to low fidelity are still required at many levels of decision-making. Problems can arise due to the issue of consistency among the family of models used for analysis. To address this and other problems, models of variable resolution have been suggested. However, such variable resolution architectures inherently carry their own set of issues which must be resolved in order to be useful. First, what are the structural requirements for a variable resolution model; and second, how are interactions between entities governed, especially when the entities have different resolutions? This paper addresses these issues and discusses key mechanisms needed to develop a variable resolution combat simulation that meets several core requirements for such models: seamless aggregation/disaggregation, appropriate interactions between entities of differing resolution, and control of the aggregation/disaggregation process.
Date: August 1, 1997
Creator: Powell, D.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The cooperative monitoring of military forces: An exercise in strategy

Description: This exercise examines a hypothetical security problem associated with conventional military forces and border security: a surprise attack. The goal of the exercise is to provide an opportunity to think about how cooperative monitoring can be part of regional security. Two hypothetical countries, VOLCANOES and MOUNTAINS, have been created for this exercise based on the US states of Arizona and New Mexico. They were selected for their size and variety of terrain. Hypothetical background information and characteristics of the two countries are provided. An outline of activities is given, including prioritization of security concerns and monitoring of objectives for security concerns. 6 tabs.
Date: April 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Course of Action Analysis within an Effects-Based Operational Context

Description: This article summarizes information related to the automated course of action (COA) development effort. The information contained in this document puts the COA effort into an operational perspective that addresses command and control theory, as well as touching on the military planning concept known as effects-based operations. The sections relating to the COA effort detail the rationale behind the functional models developed and identify technologies that could support the process functions. The functional models include a section related to adversarial modeling, which adds a dynamic to the COA process that is missing in current combat simulations. The information contained in this article lays the foundation for building a unique analytic capability.
Date: November 1, 2001
Creator: SENGLAUB, MICHAEL E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Critique of ``Expected Value`` models

Description: There are a number of models in the defense community which use a methodology referred to as ``Expected Value`` to perform sequential calculations of unit attritions or expenditures. The methodology applied to two-sided, dependent, sequential events can result in an incorrect model. An example of such an incorrect model is offered to show that these models may yield results which deviate significantly from a stochastic or Markov process approach. The example was derived from an informal discussion at the Center for Naval Analyses.
Date: June 1, 1996
Creator: May, W.L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A development environment for operational concepts and systems engineering analysis.

Description: The work reported in this document involves a development effort to provide combat commanders and systems engineers with a capability to explore and optimize system concepts that include operational concepts as part of the design effort. An infrastructure and analytic framework has been designed and partially developed that meets a gap in systems engineering design for combat related complex systems. The system consists of three major components: The first component consists of a design environment that permits the combat commander to perform 'what-if' types of analyses in which parts of a course of action (COA) can be automated by generic system constructs. The second component consists of suites of optimization tools designed to integrate into the analytical architecture to explore the massive design space of an integrated design and operational space. These optimization tools have been selected for their utility in requirements development and operational concept development. The third component involves the design of a modeling paradigm for the complex system that takes advantage of functional definitions and the coupled state space representations, generic measures of effectiveness and performance, and a number of modeling constructs to maximize the efficiency of computer simulations. The system architecture has been developed to allow for a future extension in which the operational concept development aspects can be performed in a co-evolutionary process to ensure the most robust designs may be gleaned from the design space(s).
Date: March 1, 2004
Creator: Raybourn, Elaine Marie & Senglaub, Michael E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Empirical identification of user information requirements in command and control system evaluation

Description: This paper summarizes a study that was conducted to address user information requirements for the Force Level Control System. It was the first in a series being conducted at the US Army Tactical Command and Control System Experimentation Site (AES). User information requirements were determined via monitoring and classification of communications during a command and control exercise, as well as through subsequent exercise participant input. Separate measures of observed communication frequency, rated importance, and rated perishability were obtained for a set of information elements that comprised a comprehensive taxonomy of tactical command and control communications content. Analyses were then conducted to explore the relationships between frequency, importance, and perishability as well as develop a comprehensive index of criticality. The resulting comprehensive index of criticality is intended to be used by systems developers in selecting the information to be conveyed and processed by the Force Level Control System. 2 refs., 2 figs.
Date: June 1, 1990
Creator: McCallum, M.C.; Bittner, A.C. Jr. (Battelle Human Affairs Research Center, Seattle, WA (USA)) & Badalamente, R.V. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (USA))
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Environmental representation and the role of clouds in studies and analysis models

Description: The Joint Analysis community is currently making significant improvements and enhancements to its suite of modeling tools used to support studies and analyses for Joint applications. This effort is being performed under the Joint Analytic Model Improvement Program (JAMIP) that began in 1995. One part of the JAMIP effort is the development of the Joint Warfare System (JWARS). JWARS will be a state of the art closed-form, constructive simulation of multisided, joint warefare for analysis. The environment will be a significant factor in future warefare analysis and so JWARS will include an authoritative environmental representation that can be represented at variable spatial and temporal scales. Argonne`s Dynamic Environmental Effects Model (DEEM) was used to provide the environmental representation for the JWARS prototype effort. In this paper we will present an overview of JWARS and describe how the environment and environmental effects are being represented in JWARS. Specific emphasis will be given on how clouds are included in the JWARS environment and the impacts they have on the warfighting functionality included in JWARS.
Date: October 1, 1997
Creator: Hummel, J.R. & Campbell, A.P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

Description: Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.
Date: March 1, 2006
Creator: Merkle, Peter Benedict
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Fluorescence cross section measurements of biological agent simulants

Description: Fluorescence is a powerful technique that has potential uses in detection and characterization of biological aerosols both in the battlefield and in civilian environments. Fluorescence techniques can be used with ultraviolet (UV) light detection and ranging (LIDAR) equipment to detect biological aerosol clouds at a distance, to provide early warning of a biological attack, and to track an potentially noxious cloud. Fluorescence can also be used for detection in a point sensor to monitor biological materials and to distinguish agents from benign aerosols. This work is part of a continuing program by the Army`s Chemical and Biological Defense Command to characterized the optical properties of biological agents. Reported here are ultraviolet fluorescence measurements of Bacillus megaterium and Bacillus Globigii aerosols suspended in an electrodynamic particle trap. Fluorescence spectra of a common atmospheric aerosol, pine pollen, are also presented.
Date: November 1, 1996
Creator: Stephens, J.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Freedom to mix vulnerable offensive and defensive forces

Description: The freedom to mix offense and defense to expand without diminishing either side`s second strike capability is shown to be counterproductive at large numbers of missiles; effective at intermediate numbers; and progressively less effective at modest numbers. Solutions are less stable for large second strikes.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Glider communications and controls for the sea sentry mission.

Description: This report describes a system level study on the use of a swarm of sea gliders to detect, confirm and kill littoral submarine threats. The report begins with a description of the problem and derives the probability of detecting a constant speed threat without networking. It was concluded that glider motion does little to improve this probability unless the speed of a glider is greater than the speed of the threat. Therefore, before detection, the optimal character for a swarm of gliders is simply to lie in wait for the detection of a threat. The report proceeds by describing the effect of noise on the localization of a threat once initial detection is achieved. This noise is estimated as a function of threat location relative to the glider and is temporally reduced through the use of an information or Kalman filtering. In the next section, the swarm probability of confirming and killing a threat is formulated. Results are compared to a collection of stationary sensors. These results show that once a glider has the ability to move faster than the threat, the performance of the swarm is equal to the performance of a stationary swarm of gliders with confirmation and kill ranges equal to detection range. Moreover, at glider speeds greater than the speed of the threat, swarm performance becomes a weak function of speed. At these speeds swarm performance is dominated by detection range. Therefore, to future enhance swarm performance or to reduce the number of gliders required for a given performance, detection range must be increased. Communications latency is also examined. It was found that relatively large communication delays did little to change swarm performance. Thus gliders may come to the surface and use SATCOMS to effectively communicate in this application.
Date: March 1, 2005
Creator: Feddema, John Todd & Dohner, Jeffrey Lynn
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Limits on linearity of missile allocation optimization

Description: Optimizations of missile allocation based on linearized exchange equations produce accurate allocations, but the limits of validity of the linearization are not known. These limits are explored in the context of the upload of weapons by one side to initially small, equal forces of vulnerable and survivable weapons. The analysis compares analytic and numerical optimizations and stability induces based on aggregated interactions of the two missile forces, the first and second strikes they could deliver, and they resulting costs. This note discusses the costs and stability indices induced by unilateral uploading of weapons to an initially symmetrical low force configuration. These limits are quantified for forces with a few hundred missiles by comparing analytic and numerical optimizations of first strike costs. For forces of 100 vulnerable and 100 survivable missiles on each side, the analytic optimization agrees closely with the numerical solution. For 200 vulnerable and 200 survivable missiles on each side, the analytic optimization agrees with the induces to within about 10%, but disagrees with the allocation of the side with more weapons by about 50%. The disagreement comes from the interaction of the possession of more weapons with the shift of allocation from missiles to value that they induce.
Date: December 1, 1997
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department