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Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization and Representation for Market Penetration Model Input

Description: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Program (GTP) tasked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with conducting the annual geothermal supply curve update. This report documents the approach taken to identify geothermal resources, determine the electrical producing potential of these resources, and estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), capital costs, and operating and maintenance costs from these geothermal resources at present and future timeframes under various GTP funding levels. Finally, this report discusses the resulting supply curve representation and how improvements can be made to future supply curve updates.
Date: October 1, 2011
Creator: Augustine, C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Curve

Description: This paper documents the approach used to update the U.S. geothermal supply curve. The analysis undertaken in this study estimates the supply of electricity generation potential from geothermal resources in the United States and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), capital costs, and operating and maintenance costs associated with developing these geothermal resources. Supply curves were developed for four categories of geothermal resources: identified hydrothermal (6.4 GWe), undiscovered hydrothermal (30.0 GWe), near-hydrothermal field enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) (7.0 GWe) and deep EGS (15,900 GWe). Two cases were considered: a base case and a target case. Supply curves were generated for each of the four geothermal resource categories for both cases. For both cases, hydrothermal resources dominate the lower cost range of the combined geothermal supply curve. The supply curves indicate that the reservoir performance improvements assumed in the target case could significantly lower EGS costs and greatly increase EGS deployment over the base case.
Date: February 1, 2010
Creator: Augustine, C.; Young, K. R. & Anderson, A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Wind Levelized Cost of Energy: A Comparison of Technical and Financing Input Variables

Description: The expansion of wind power capacity in the United States has increased the demand for project development capital. In response, innovative approaches to financing wind projects have emerged and are proliferating in the U.S. renewable energy marketplace. Wind power developers and financiers have become more efficient and creative in structuring their financial relationships, and often tailor them to different investor types and objectives. As a result, two similar projects may use very different cash flows and financing arrangements, which can significantly vary the economic competitiveness of wind projects. This report assesses the relative impact of numerous financing, technical, and operating variables on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) associated with a wind project under various financing structures in the U.S. marketplace. Under this analysis, the impacts of several financial and technical variables on the cost of wind electricity generation are first examined individually to better understand the relative importance of each. Then, analysts examine a low-cost and a high-cost financing scenario, where multiple variables are modified simultaneously. Lastly, the analysis also considers the impact of a suite of financial variables versus a suite of technical variables.
Date: October 1, 2009
Creator: Cory, K. & Schwabe, P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of Transportation and Logistics Challenges Affecting the Deployment of Larger Wind Turbines: Summary of Results

Description: There is relatively little literature that characterizes transportation and logistics challenges and the associated effects on U.S. wind markets. The objectives of this study were to identify the transportation and logistics challenges, assess the associated impacts, and provide recommendations for strategies and specific actions to address the challenges. The authors primarily relied on interviews with wind industry project developers, original equipment manufacturers, and transportation and logistics companies to obtain the information and industry perspectives needed for this study. They also reviewed published literature on trends and developments in increasing wind turbine size, logistics, and transportation issues.
Date: January 1, 2014
Creator: Cotrell, J.; Stehly, T.; Johnson, J.; Roberts, J. O.; Parker, Z.; Scott, G. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Impact of Different Economic Performance Metrics on the Perceived Value of Solar Photovoltaics

Description: Photovoltaic (PV) systems are installed by several types of market participants, ranging from residential customers to large-scale project developers and utilities. Each type of market participant frequently uses a different economic performance metric to characterize PV value because they are looking for different types of returns from a PV investment. This report finds that different economic performance metrics frequently show different price thresholds for when a PV investment becomes profitable or attractive. Several project parameters, such as financing terms, can have a significant impact on some metrics [e.g., internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and benefit-to-cost (B/C) ratio] while having a minimal impact on other metrics (e.g., simple payback time). As such, the choice of economic performance metric by different customer types can significantly shape each customer's perception of PV investment value and ultimately their adoption decision.
Date: October 1, 2011
Creator: Drury, E.; Denholm, P. & Margolis, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Understanding Wind Power Costs: The Value of a Comprehensive Approach (Presentation)

Description: The evolution and maturity of the wind industry have often been assessed by considering changes in key metrics including capital costs, capacity factor, turbine pricing, and in some cases electricity sales data. However, wind turbines and plants represent a complex system optimization problem and each of these metrics, in isolation, fails to tell the complete story of technological progress and industry advancement. By contrast, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) provides a more comprehensive and nuanced perspective on industry trends. LCOE can be used to analyze the effect of individual changes (by holding other variables constant) or to understand the complex interactions that might occur for example between turbine costs and productivity. Moreover, LCOE offers a reflection of the total production costs and required revenue for wind plants. This presentation provides examples of how a narrow focus on individual industry metrics can provide inaccurate representations of industry trends while also demonstrating how LCOE captures the array of critical industry variables to provide a greater level of insight.
Date: May 1, 2013
Creator: Lantz, E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy: Preprint

Description: The future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost reductions. To better understand the potential for cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected costs. It also notes potential sources of future cost reductions.
Date: August 1, 2012
Creator: Lantz, E.; Hand, M. & Wiser, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI): Snapshot of Recent Geothermal Financing Terms, Fourth Quarter 2009 - Second Half 2011

Description: This report is a review of geothermal project financial terms as reported in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI). The data were collected over seven analysis periods from the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2009 to the second half (2H) of 2011.
Date: September 1, 2012
Creator: Lowder, T.; Hubbell, R.; Mendelsohn, M. & Cory, K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

U.S. Balance-of-Station Cost Drivers and Sensitivities (Presentation)

Description: With balance-of-system (BOS) costs contributing up to 70% of the installed capital cost, it is fundamental to understanding the BOS costs for offshore wind projects as well as potential cost trends for larger offshore turbines. NREL developed a BOS model using project cost estimates developed by GL Garrad Hassan. Aspects of BOS covered include engineering and permitting, ports and staging, transportation and installation, vessels, foundations, and electrical. The data introduce new scaling relationships for each BOS component to estimate cost as a function of turbine parameters and size, project parameters and size, and soil type. Based on the new BOS model, an analysis to understand the non‐turbine costs has been conducted. This analysis establishes a more robust baseline cost estimate, identifies the largest cost components of offshore wind project BOS, and explores the sensitivity of the levelized cost of energy to permutations in each BOS cost element. This presentation shows results from the model that illustrates the potential impact of turbine size and project size on the cost of energy from U.S. offshore wind plants.
Date: October 1, 2012
Creator: Maples, B.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Life Cycle Cost Assessment, Final Technical Report, 30 May 2012

Description: The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Life Cycle Cost Assessment (OLCCA) is a study performed by members of the Lockheed Martin (LM) OTEC Team under funding from the Department of Energy (DOE), Award No. DE-EE0002663, dated 01/01/2010. OLCCA objectives are to estimate procurement, operations and maintenance, and overhaul costs for two types of OTEC plants: -Plants moored to the sea floor where the electricity produced by the OTEC plant is directly connected to the grid ashore via a marine power cable (Grid Connected OTEC plants) -Open-ocean grazing OTEC plant-ships producing an energy carrier that is transported to designated ports (Energy Carrier OTEC plants) Costs are developed using the concept of levelized cost of energy established by DOE for use in comparing electricity costs from various generating systems. One area of system costs that had not been developed in detail prior to this analysis was the operations and sustainment (O&S) cost for both types of OTEC plants. Procurement costs, generally referred to as capital expense and O&S costs (operations and maintenance (O&M) costs plus overhaul and replacement costs), are assessed over the 30 year operational life of the plants and an annual annuity calculated to achieve a levelized cost (constant across entire plant life). Dividing this levelized cost by the average annual energy production results in a levelized cost of electricity, or LCOE, for the OTEC plants. Technical and production efficiency enhancements that could result in a lower value of the OTEC LCOE were also explored. The thermal OTEC resource for Oahu, Hawai’i and projected build out plan were developed. The estimate of the OTEC resource and LCOE values for the planned OTEC systems enable this information to be displayed as energy supplied versus levelized cost of the supplied energy; this curve is referred to as an Energy Supply Curve. The ...
Date: June 30, 2012
Creator: Martel, Laura; Smith, Paul; Rizea, Steven; Van Ryzin, Joe; Morgan, Charles; Noland, Gary et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

Description: This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.
Date: March 1, 2007
Creator: McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G. & Nix, G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Financing U.S. Renewable Energy Projects Through Public Capital Vehicles: Qualitative and Quantitative Benefits

Description: This paper explores the possibility of financing renewable energy projects through raising capital in the public markets. It gives an overview of the size, structure, and benefits of public capital markets, as well as showing how renewable energy projects might take advantage of this source of new funds to lower the cost of electricity.
Date: April 1, 2013
Creator: Mendelsohn, M. & Feldman, D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterization

Description: This paper documents the approach taken to characterize and represent an updated assessment of U.S. geothermal supply for use in forecasting the penetration of geothermal electrical generation in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This work is motivated by several factors: The supply characterization used as the basis of several recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts of geothermal capacity is outdated; additional geothermal resource assessments have been published; and a new costing tool that incorporates current technology, engineering practices, and associated costs has been released.
Date: March 1, 2007
Creator: Petty, S. & Porro, G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

2010 Cost of Wind Energy Review

Description: This document provides a detailed description of NREL's levelized cost of wind energy equation, assumptions and results in 2010, including historical cost trends and future projections for land-based and offshore utility-scale wind.
Date: April 1, 2012
Creator: Tegen, S.; Hand, M.; Maples, B.; Lantz, E.; Schwabe, P. & Smith, A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

2011 Cost of Wind Energy Review

Description: This report describes the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for a typical land-based wind turbine installed in the United States in 2011, as well as the modeled LCOE for a fixed-bottom offshore wind turbine installed in the United States in 2011. Each of the four major components of the LCOE equation are explained in detail, such as installed capital cost, annual energy production, annual operating expenses, and financing, and including sensitivity ranges that show how each component can affect LCOE. These LCOE calculations are used for planning and other purposes by the U.S. Department of Energy's Wind Program.
Date: March 1, 2013
Creator: Tegen, S.; Lantz, E.; Hand, M.; Maples, B.; Smith, A. & Schwabe, P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

Description: The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.
Date: November 1, 2010
Creator: Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N. & Knoke, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Current and Future Costs for Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Systems in the US Market: Preprint

Description: NREL's Solar Advisor Model (SAM) is employed to estimate the current and future costs for parabolic trough and molten salt power towers in the US market. Future troughs are assumed to achieve higher field temperatures via the successful deployment of low melting-point, molten-salt heat transfer fluids by 2015-2020. Similarly, it is assumed that molten salt power towers are successfully deployed at 100MW scale over the same time period, increasing to 200MW by 2025. The levelized cost of electricity for both technologies is predicted to drop below 11 cents/kWh (assuming a 10% investment tax credit and other financial inputs outlined in the paper), making the technologies competitive in the marketplace as benchmarked by the California MPR. Both technologies can be deployed with large amounts of thermal energy storage, yielding capacity factors as high as 65% while maintaining an optimum LCOE.
Date: October 1, 2010
Creator: Turchi, C.; Mehos, M.; Ho, C. K. & Kolb, G. J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Shallow Water Offshore Wind Optimization for the Great Lakes (DE-FOA-0000415) Final Report: A Conceptual Design for Wind Energy in the Great Lakes

Description: The primary objective of the project was to develop a innovative Gravity Base Foundation (GBF) concepts, including fabrication yards, launching systems and installation equipment, for a 500MW utility scale project in the Great Lakes (Lake Erie). The goal was to lower the LCOE by 25%. The project was the first to investigate an offshore wind project in the Great Lakes and it has furthered the body of knowledge for foundations and installation methods within Lake Erie. The project collected historical geotechnical information for Lake Erie and also used recently obtained data from the LEEDCo Icebreaker Project (FOA DE-EE0005989) geotechnical program to develop the conceptual designs. Using these data-sets, the project developed design wind and wave conditions from actual buoy data in order to develop a concept that would de-risk a project using a GBF. These wind and wave conditions were then utilized to create reference designs for various foundations specific to installation in Lake Erie. A project partner on the project (Weeks Marine) provided input for construction and costing the GBF fabrication and installation. By having a marine contractor with experience with large marine projects as part of the team provides credibility to the LCOE developed by NREL. NREL then utilized the design and construction costing information as part of the LCOE model. The report summarizes the findings of the project. • Developed a cost model and “baseline” LCOE • Documented Site Conditions within Lake Erie • Developed Fabrication, Installation and Foundations Innovative Concept Designs • Evaluated LCOE Impact of Innovations • Developed Assembly line “Rail System” for GBF Construction and Staging • Developed Transit-Inspired Foundation Designs which incorporated: Semi-Floating Transit with Supplemental Pontoons Barge mounted Winch System • Developed GBF with “Penetration Skirt” • Developed Integrated GBF with Turbine Tower • Developed Turbine, Plant Layout and O&M Strategies The ...
Date: February 28, 2014
Creator: Wissemann, Chris & White, Stanley M
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Reliability Testing Beyond Qualification as a Key Component in Photovoltaic's Progress Toward Grid Parity: Preprint

Description: This paper discusses why it is necessary for new lower cost PV modules to be tested using a reliability test sequence that goes beyond the Qualification test sequence now utilized for modules. Today most PV modules are warranted for 25 years, but the Qualification Test Sequence does not test for 25-year life. There is no accepted test protocol to validate a 25-year lifetime. This paper recommends the use of long term accelerated testing to compare now designs directly with older designs that have achieved long lifetimes in outdoor exposure. If the new designs do as well or better than the older ones, then it is likely that they will survive an equivalent length of time in the field.
Date: February 1, 2011
Creator: Wohlgemuth, J. H. & Kurtz, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

Description: This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.
Date: February 1, 2010
Creator: Young, K. R.; Augustine, C. & Anderson, A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department