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A theory of deterrence

Description: The purpose of this monograph is to start a theory of deterrence which has the capability of quantitatively answering the question of what is required to deter a nation or alliance from certain acts. Despite the existence of voluminous writing on deterrence, from the beginning of the nuclear age and even before, none of it attempts a theoretical discussion of how to calculate what it takes to deter a country from committing some acts which are objectionable to another country. Many theories of deterrence have already been created. They have exclusively been of two separate forms -- those of the social scientists, which deal with political questions, and how the concept of mass destruction psychological deters the initiation of war; and those of the mathematicians, who model the quantities of one country`s arsenal of strategic systems needed to destroy a certain portion of another country`s. Only the latter is quantitative, but they lack an essential element added to answer the question ``How much is enough?`` In order to use the techniques of operations research on the questions of what type and amount of weapons are adequate for deterrence, the definitions of quantities occurring in the calculations need to be made in quantifiable way. Numbers of weapons have been the only quantified parameter in previous deterrence calculations. Yet weapons alone do not deter. The threat of destruction and damage does. How is that threatenable damage to be measured, and as through defensive system construction, counterforce capability improvement, arms control, or other means, it becomes less when is the threshold for deterrence met and crossed? The calculation of this damage, and the implication of that damage to decision-makers capable of making a war initiation decision, is a complicated process, and it is what constitutes a theory of deterrence. 36 refs.
Date: March 20, 1991
Creator: Erickson, S. A. Jr.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Average deployments versus missile and defender parameters

Description: This report evaluates the average number of reentry vehicles (RVs) that could be deployed successfully as a function of missile burn time, RV deployment times, and the number of space-based interceptors (SBIs) in defensive constellations. Leakage estimates of boost-phase kinetic-energy defenses as functions of launch parameters and defensive constellation size agree with integral predictions of near-exact calculations for constellation sizing. The calculations discussed here test more detailed aspects of the interaction. They indicate that SBIs can efficiently remove about 50% of the RVs from a heavy missile attack. The next 30% can removed with two-fold less effectiveness. The next 10% could double constellation sizes. 5 refs., 7 figs.
Date: March 1, 1991
Creator: Canavan, G.H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Glider communications and controls for the sea sentry mission.

Description: This report describes a system level study on the use of a swarm of sea gliders to detect, confirm and kill littoral submarine threats. The report begins with a description of the problem and derives the probability of detecting a constant speed threat without networking. It was concluded that glider motion does little to improve this probability unless the speed of a glider is greater than the speed of the threat. Therefore, before detection, the optimal character for a swarm of gliders is simply to lie in wait for the detection of a threat. The report proceeds by describing the effect of noise on the localization of a threat once initial detection is achieved. This noise is estimated as a function of threat location relative to the glider and is temporally reduced through the use of an information or Kalman filtering. In the next section, the swarm probability of confirming and killing a threat is formulated. Results are compared to a collection of stationary sensors. These results show that once a glider has the ability to move faster than the threat, the performance of the swarm is equal to the performance of a stationary swarm of gliders with confirmation and kill ranges equal to detection range. Moreover, at glider speeds greater than the speed of the threat, swarm performance becomes a weak function of speed. At these speeds swarm performance is dominated by detection range. Therefore, to future enhance swarm performance or to reduce the number of gliders required for a given performance, detection range must be increased. Communications latency is also examined. It was found that relatively large communication delays did little to change swarm performance. Thus gliders may come to the surface and use SATCOMS to effectively communicate in this application.
Date: March 1, 2005
Creator: Feddema, John Todd & Dohner, Jeffrey Lynn
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A development environment for operational concepts and systems engineering analysis.

Description: The work reported in this document involves a development effort to provide combat commanders and systems engineers with a capability to explore and optimize system concepts that include operational concepts as part of the design effort. An infrastructure and analytic framework has been designed and partially developed that meets a gap in systems engineering design for combat related complex systems. The system consists of three major components: The first component consists of a design environment that permits the combat commander to perform 'what-if' types of analyses in which parts of a course of action (COA) can be automated by generic system constructs. The second component consists of suites of optimization tools designed to integrate into the analytical architecture to explore the massive design space of an integrated design and operational space. These optimization tools have been selected for their utility in requirements development and operational concept development. The third component involves the design of a modeling paradigm for the complex system that takes advantage of functional definitions and the coupled state space representations, generic measures of effectiveness and performance, and a number of modeling constructs to maximize the efficiency of computer simulations. The system architecture has been developed to allow for a future extension in which the operational concept development aspects can be performed in a co-evolutionary process to ensure the most robust designs may be gleaned from the design space(s).
Date: March 1, 2004
Creator: Raybourn, Elaine Marie & Senglaub, Michael E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

Description: Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.
Date: March 1, 2006
Creator: Merkle, Peter Benedict
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Sensitivity of stability indices to dealerting

Description: It is reported that more than 100 former or current heads of state and civilian leaders from around the world, including ex-presidents Jimmy Carter and Mikhail Gorbachev, have signed a statement that calls for removing nuclear weapons from alert status and other measures aimed at the eventual elimination of atomic arsenals--reflecting mounting support for the cause of nuclear bolition. This note uses stability analysis derived from current US and Russian analyses to study the impact of such dealerting on stability, indicating that it could be negative. Dealerting forces removes them from first and second strikes for as long as they are dealerted. If they are dealerted for periods long compared to those involved in the evaluation of first strike stability, dealerting has the same effect as permanent arms reductions, it subtracts them from first and second strikes. Thus, it is conceptually a way of implementing such reductions on an accelerated scale. Dealerting strategic forces has been posited as a stabilizing step towards their abolition. Previous reports have shown that planned START reductions will reduce stability indices by about a factor of two. Dealerting would hasten those reductions. They would also raise the possibility that one side could realert faster than the other. If so, the remobilized forces could be used to damage limit, which would reduce his first strike cost and stability index. The impact of complete demobilization of SSBNs would be an order of magnitude reduction in the overall stability index, to a level set by alert ICBMs. Generally, it would be preferable to maintain any existing strategic forces at the highest level of alert to minimize this effect and to concentrate instead on decreasing their total number.
Date: March 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa

Description: This report provides a broad overview of U.S. strategic interests in Africa and the role of U.S. military efforts on the continent as they pertain to the creation of AFRICOM. Although the command is still in the early stages of its development, a discussion of AFRICOM’s mission, its coordination with other government agencies, and its basing and manpower requirements is included.
Date: March 10, 2008
Creator: Ploch, Lauren
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Operations, and Issues for Congress

Description: This report discusses the ongoing U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, begun in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The report, which will be updated as events warrant, describe and analyzes several issues, including the key players in the war in Afghanistan; the strategic outlooks of the Afghan government, the U.S. government, and NATO; and the threats to the security and stability of the Afghan state and its people.
Date: March 9, 2011
Creator: Dale, Catherine
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department