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The Application of Statistical Classification to Business Failure Prediction

Description: Bankruptcy is a costly event. Holders of publicly traded securities can rely on security prices to reflect their risk. Other stakeholders have no such mechanism. Hence, methods for accurately forecasting bankruptcy would be valuable to them. A large body of literature has arisen on bankruptcy forecasting with statistical classification since Beaver (1967) and Altman (1968). Reported total error rates typically are 10%-20%, suggesting that these models reveal information which otherwise is unavailable and has value after financial data is released. This conflicts with evidence on market efficiency which indicates that securities markets adjust rapidly and actually anticipate announcements of financial data. Efforts to resolve this conflict with event study methodology have run afoul of market model specification difficulties. A different approach is taken here. Most extant criticism of research design in this literature concerns inferential techniques but not sampling design. This paper attempts to resolve major sampling design issues. The most important conclusion concerns the usual choice of the individual firm as the sampling unit. While this choice is logically inconsistent with how a forecaster observes financial data over time, no evidence of bias could be found. In this paper, prediction performance is evaluated in terms of expected loss. Most authors calculate total error rates, which fail to reflect documented asymmetries in misclassification costs and prior probabilities. Expected loss overcomes this weakness and also offers a formal means to evaluate forecasts from the perspective of stakeholders other than investors. This study shows that cost of misclassifying bankruptcy must be at least an order of magnitude greater than cost of misclassifying nonbankruptcy before discriminant analysis methods have value. This conclusion follows from both sampling experiments on historical financial data and Monte Carlo experiments on simulated data. However, the Monte Carlo experiments reveal that as the cost ratio increases, robustness of linear ...
Date: December 1994
Creator: Haensly, Paul J.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Community College Collaboration with Business and Industry in Providing Workplace Literacy Programs: a Modified Case Study of Five Corporate Programs in a Metropolitan Area

Description: The purpose of this study was to provide both businesses and institutions of higher education with a descriptive analysis of the programs of five companies that have utilized community colleges in their basic skills programs. The five companies represented included Texas Instruments Defense Systems Corporation and SGS-Thomson Microelectronics (electronics companies), Abbott Laboratories (a pharmaceutical company), J & E Die Casting (a small die casting firm), and Company X, a semiconductor company that requested anonymity. The community colleges included were Richland College, Brookhaven College, and North Lake College. Modified case studies were used to obtain data collected through individual interviews with representatives from the community colleges and the companies. The syntheses of documentaries provided details of how the five community college-directed workplace literacy programs met, or failed to meet, their literacy challenges. Descriptions of the curriculum and structure of each program were also included. Numerous factors contributed to the success or demise of the programs studied. Elements that served as powerful assets when adequately supported were detrimental when neglected. Factors common to all of the programs were financial support, management philosophical support, confidentiality, adequate testing instruments, class schedule flexibility, instructor capability, physical classroom facilities, and work-related documentation integrated into the curriculum. The findings of this study support previous research concerning successful and detrimental factors found in workplace literacy programs.
Date: December 1992
Creator: Kutilek, Janis G. (Janis Gayle)
Partner: UNT Libraries

Development and Testing of a Resource-Based Theory of International Entry Mode Choice

Description: A firm can deploy a variety of arrangements (entry modes) like wholly owned subsidiaries, joint ventures, contracts, and export modes to implement its product market strategies in foreign countries. Each of these arrangements entails decisions about the location of production facilities and/or marketing operations, and the type of ownership of these operations. The choice of an entry mode is of strategic importance to a firm because it can involve investment of substantial amount of resources and has a strong bearing on the firm's marketing mix. Due to its strategic importance, the entry mode choice phenomenon has been extensively researched. In the past, seven major theories have been proposed but none is able to explain the choice from the complete set of entry modes. Thus, there exists a gap between the theory and practice of entry mode choice. This study provides breakthrough on two fronts. First, it develops a new theory of entry mode choice grounded in the resource-based perspective of the firm. The theory posits that the decision to locate its production and/or marketing operations in a country is related to the actualizability of the firm's competitive advantage in that country. However, the ownership decision is related to the sustainability of that advantage. Second, based on this theory, a model is developed which explains entry mode choices from the complete set of entry modes. Mail survey responses of Presidents/CEOs of 163 American firms with international operations support the model. The proposed framework is an effort to fill the gap between theory and practice of entry mode choice. It is expected to make a substantial contribution toward developing a sound theory of international operations of the firm. The framework is broader in scope than the extant theories because it transcends across industries and nationalities of firms.
Date: August 1995
Creator: Sharma, Varinder M. (Varinder Mohan)
Partner: UNT Libraries

The Role of Workstation-Based Client/Server Systems in Changing Business Processes: a Multiple Case Study

Description: Although several studies question information technology's contribution to productivity, organizations continue to invest in client/server systems (CSSs) particularly as enablers of business process reengineering (BPR). These efforts may be wasted if they do not improve business processes. This study focused on business processes and investigated the role of workstation-based CSSs in changing business processes. A multiple case study of workstation-based CSS databases in three organizations was performed with the proposition that they moderate the relation between managerial action and changes within business processes. The research framework suggested that changes to business processes are achieved by reducing uncertainty. In order to measure change in business processes, this study categorized business process change into: (1) compressing sequential tasks across functions, (2) compressing tasks vertically within the managerial hierarchy, (3) eliminating slack resources, (4) reducing the distance between the point of decision and the point of information or eliminating intermediaries, (5) reconfiguring sequential processes to operate in parallel, and (6) linking parallel activities during the process. Data collected from questionnaires, interviews, and observations from three case studies were used to construct network diagrams, relationship matrices, reachability matrices, and task tables of business processes. The results of this research partially support the proposition that managerial action affects business process change by reducing uncertainty. This research suggests that changes in the use of workstation-based CSSs are related to changes in business processes. However, because ofthe small sample size, no finding was made regarding changes in the strength of that relationship. Therefore, within its limitations, this research (1) partially supports the proposition that CSSs moderate changes in business processes, (2) found that both favorable and unfavorable changes may result from using CSSs, (3) explains how business process change occurs, and (4) suggests new variables for measuring successful BPR.
Date: December 1995
Creator: Nik Hassan, Nik Rushdi
Partner: UNT Libraries

[News Script: Little red taxi]

Description: Script from the WBAP-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, covering a news story about a new taxi service in North Dallas called the "Little Red Taxi," its owner and operator being eleven year-old Noel Tardy.
Date: August 30, 1961
Creator: WBAP-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Business]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 5:00 P.M.
Date: February 9, 1978
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Gasoline]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 5:00 P.M.
Date: August 16, 1979
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Pool Problems]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 6:00 P.M.
Date: July 31, 1979
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: KXAS Sale]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 10:00 P.M.
Date: August 12, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Plano Traffic]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 10:00 P.M.
Date: August 25, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Cotton Bowl Pkg]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 5:00 P.M.
Date: August 14, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Aviation]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 10:00 P.M.
Date: October 22, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Auto Nation]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 10:00 P.M.
Date: October 21, 1977
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Suburban Crime]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 10:00 P.M.
Date: January 8, 1998
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Restaurants]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 6:00 P.M.
Date: August 18, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Script: Barney]

Description: Script from the WBAP-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, covering a news story about the tearing down of six blocks of buildings on the lower downtown district where it will displace many businesses with employees like Barney McKinney who is a customer favorite at the Best Place Cafe.
Date: July 6, 1962
Creator: WBAP-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Dallas Goals]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 6:00 P.M.
Date: October 1, 1986
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Sears]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 5:00 P.M.
Date: May 1, 1979
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Explosion]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 5:00 P.M.
Date: August 25, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Explosion]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 6:00 P.M.
Date: August 25, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[News Clip: Biz Robber]

Description: Video footage from the KXAS-TV/NBC station in Fort Worth, Texas, to accompany a news story. This story aired at 6:00 P.M.
Date: August 8, 1997
Creator: KXAS-TV (Television station : Fort Worth, Tex.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections

[The Interior of the Shaw Studio, February 1943]

Description: Photograph of in interior of Shaw Studio for photography. There is an individual female behind the counter and three individual customers. Two are female and one is male. There are many portraits inside and on the counter, the females are are wearing dresses, and the male is wearing a jacket with the words "FALCONS" and "NTSTC" on the back.
Date: February 1943
Partner: UNT Libraries Special Collections