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Market Timing, Forecast Ability and Information Flow in Petroleum Futures Markets

Description: Three petroleum futures contracts are examined over a ten-year period from 1986 to 1996. Intertemporal changes in futures prices and the net open interest positions of three trader types are compared to determine what, if any, market timing ability the traders have. Seasonal variation is considered and a simple trading rule is adopted to determine the dollar-return potential for market participation and shed light on issues of market efficiency.
Date: December 1997
Creator: Buchanan, William K.
Partner: UNT Libraries

World Petroleum Availability 1980-2000

Description: A technical memorandum by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) that "estimates plausible levels of world oil production to the year 2000 and assesses the factors likely to determine which levels are actually reached" (p. iii).
Date: November 1980
Creator: United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

U.S. Oil Import Vulnerability: The Technical Replacement Capability

Description: This report examines the changes that have taken place in world oil markets and the U.S. economy since 1984 and provides revised estimates of the technical oil replacement potential that might be attained in the event of a severe and long lasting cutoff of imported oil. The report presents a variety of policy options that could help accelerate the adoption of oil replacement technologies in preparation for, or in response to, a severe supply disruption, or as part of a long-term national policy to reduce import vulnerability y.
Date: October 1991
Creator: United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Crude Oil and Crude Oil Derivatives Transactions by Oil and Gas Producers.

Description: This study attempts to resolve two important issues. First, it investigates the diversification benefit of crude oil for equities. Second, it examines whether or not crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers can change shareholders' wealth. With these two major goals in mind, I study the risk and return profile of crude oil, the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions, and the systematic risk exposure effect of crude oil derivatives transactions. In contrast with previous studies, this study applies the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) methodology to measure the risk and return profile of crude oil. The results show that crude oil is negatively correlated with stocks so adding crude oil into a portfolio with equities can provide significant diversification benefits for the portfolio. Given the diversification benefit of crude oil mixed with equities, this study then examines the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers. Differing from traditional corporate risk management literature, this study examines corporate derivatives transactions from the shareholders' portfolio perspective. The results show that crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers do impact value. If oil and gas producing companies stop shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, company stock prices increase significantly. In contrast, if oil and gas producing companies start shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, stock prices drop marginally significantly. Thus, hedging by producers is not necessarily good. This paper, however, finds that changes in policy regarding crude oil derivatives transactions cannot significantly affect the beta of shareholders' portfolios. The value effect, therefore, cannot be attributed to any systematic risk exposure change of shareholders' portfolios. Market completeness, transaction costs, and economies of scale are identified as possible sources of value effect. The following conclusions have been obtained in this study. Crude oil provides significant diversification benefits ...
Date: December 2007
Creator: Xu, He
Partner: UNT Libraries

The Influence of Change in Organizational Size, Level of Integration, and Investment in Technology on Task Specialization

Description: Major changes in organizational structural paradigms have been occurring. Recent journal articles propose that the older philosophies of expanding organizations and increasing internal specialization are no longer viable means to enhance competitiveness as espoused in earlier journal articles. Downsizing, rightsizing, and business process reengineering have all been used as methods of accomplishing organizational work force reduction (OWFR) and enhancing organizational posture. It has been established that as organizations grow, specialization increases. Causes for OWFR have not been established nor have effects upon structure been studied. Previous structural factor studies have focused upon organizations engaged in end-game strategies done during periods of internal and economic growth. This study evaluates the impacts of OWFR and its relationship to the structural factor of specialization during a non-munificent economic period. Three independent variables, dis-integration, change in the number of employees, and change in technology, were used as measures to determine whether specialization decreased when organizations downsized. The dependent variable, specialization, was obtained through a pre-tested questionnaire. The three independent variables were obtained using the Compustat data base as a secondary source of information. The Compustat data was verified using data from Compact Disclosure. Questionnaires were mailed to fifty-one fully integrated oil companies. Forty were returned after three mailings yielding a response rate of seventy-eight percent. The unit of analysis for the data collected was the firm. The data were analyzed using multiple regression to determine the strength of the relationship between the variables. Results indicate a significant relationship between two of the independent variables and the dependent variable: dis-integration and specialization and change in the number of employees and specialization. Findings were insignificant for the third independent variable and the dependent variable: change in technology and specialization. Analysis of the quantitative results and the qualitative responses of the participants show that dis-integration and a ...
Date: August 1996
Creator: Tucci, Jack E. (Jack Eugene)
Partner: UNT Libraries

Dependence Upon Oil and its Influence on Foreign Policy

Description: This investigation is concerned with determining what influence, if any, results from the dependence upon foreign sources of petroleum by the United States, France, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union. The influence that petroleum plays upon the changing attitudes of these four nations towards Israel and the Arab nations is ascertained by the utilization of primary and secondary sources. The study analyzes all the resolutions that have been adopted by the United Nations Security Council in the years between 1948 and 1976 dealing specifically with the Arab-Israeli conflict. Other chapters analyze each of the four nations to which attention is being directed. This study concludes that the growing and continuing dependence upon Arab oil has influenced the foreign policies the four nations have assumed toward the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Date: December 1978
Creator: Hamel, Howard C.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Criteria by Which Ad Hoc Labor Arbitrators are Selected by Union and Management Advocates in the Petroleum Refining Industry

Description: A non-experimental, descriptive study was conducted to examine the criteria by which ad hoc labor arbitrators are selected in the petroleum refining industry. Three factors — arbitrator background, recognition, and arbitration practice — were examined to determine their relative importance to advocates selecting ad hoc labor arbitrators. The population of the study consisted of management and labor union advocates in the petroleum refining industry who routinely select ad hoc labor arbitrators. Participating management and union advocates completed a questionnaire used to gather respondents' evaluations of criteria considered in the selection of ad hoc arbitrators. Responses to statements designed for measuring relative importance of the criteria considered were recorded. Descriptive statistics, discriminant analysis, and tests of significance were used in the treatment of the data.
Date: August 1990
Creator: Wayland, Robert F. (Robert Franklin)
Partner: UNT Libraries

Salvage of Material in the Oil Industry

Description: Technical paper issued by the Bureau of Mines over the salvage of necessary equipment for the oil industry. The types of materials that can be salvaged are presented and discussed. This paper includes photographs, and illustrations.
Date: 1929
Creator: Bowie, C. P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Survey of Crude Oil in Storage, 1936-1937

Description: Report issued by the U.S. Bureau of Mines over surveys conducted on the crude-oil inventory in the United States. Sampling methods, and survey results are presented. Tables and graphs are included in this report.
Date: September 1938
Creator: United States. Bureau of Mines.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department