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Locational Determinants of Real Estate Valuation: an Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in the Hedonic Pricing of Real Estate

Description: Recent studies of the valuation of real estate have concentrated on the use of hedonic pricing techniques in which the implicit prices of the component characteristics of an asset are inferred from the observed sale price using regression analysis. All of these studies include as explanatory variables one or more locational factors, such as distance to the central business district, as proxies for the effect that location has on the utility of land. In this research, the explicit consideration of the location of real estate in terms of the geographic or Cartesian coordinates (spatial attributes) of observed sales is shown to be a potential substitute for such proxies, either wholly or in part. Such use of spatial attributes could improve the usefulness of the hedonic methodology while at the same time significantly reducing cost and eliminating sources of error.
Date: May 1992
Creator: Shampton, John F.
Partner: UNT Libraries

The Prediction of Industrial Bond Rating Changes: a Multiple Discriminant Model Versus a Statistical Decomposition Model

Description: The purpose of this study is to investigate the usefulness of statistical decomposition measures in the prediction of industrial bond rating changes. Further, the predictive ability of decomposition measures is compared with multiple discriminant analysis on the same sample. The problem of this study is twofold. It stems in general from the statistical problems associated with current techniques employed in the study of bond ratings and in particular from the lack of attention to the study of bond rating changes. Two main hypotheses are tested in this study. The first is that bond rating changes can be predicted through the use of financial statement data. The second is that decomposition analysis can achieve the same performance as multiple discriminant analysis in duplicating and predicting industrial bond rating changes. To explain and predict industrial bond rating changes, statistical decomposition measures were computed for each company in the sample. Based on these decomposition measures, the two types of analyses performed were (a) a univariate analysis where each decomposition measure was compared with an industry average decomposition measure, and (b) a multivariate analysis where decomposition measures were used as independent variables in a probability linear model. In addition to statistical decomposition analysis, multiple discriminant analysis was used in duplicating and predicting bond rating changes. Finally, a comparison was made between the predictive abilities of decomposition analysis and discriminant analysis.
Date: December 1985
Creator: Metawe, Saad Abdel-Hamid
Partner: UNT Libraries

The Application of Statistical Classification to Business Failure Prediction

Description: Bankruptcy is a costly event. Holders of publicly traded securities can rely on security prices to reflect their risk. Other stakeholders have no such mechanism. Hence, methods for accurately forecasting bankruptcy would be valuable to them. A large body of literature has arisen on bankruptcy forecasting with statistical classification since Beaver (1967) and Altman (1968). Reported total error rates typically are 10%-20%, suggesting that these models reveal information which otherwise is unavailable and has value after financial data is released. This conflicts with evidence on market efficiency which indicates that securities markets adjust rapidly and actually anticipate announcements of financial data. Efforts to resolve this conflict with event study methodology have run afoul of market model specification difficulties. A different approach is taken here. Most extant criticism of research design in this literature concerns inferential techniques but not sampling design. This paper attempts to resolve major sampling design issues. The most important conclusion concerns the usual choice of the individual firm as the sampling unit. While this choice is logically inconsistent with how a forecaster observes financial data over time, no evidence of bias could be found. In this paper, prediction performance is evaluated in terms of expected loss. Most authors calculate total error rates, which fail to reflect documented asymmetries in misclassification costs and prior probabilities. Expected loss overcomes this weakness and also offers a formal means to evaluate forecasts from the perspective of stakeholders other than investors. This study shows that cost of misclassifying bankruptcy must be at least an order of magnitude greater than cost of misclassifying nonbankruptcy before discriminant analysis methods have value. This conclusion follows from both sampling experiments on historical financial data and Monte Carlo experiments on simulated data. However, the Monte Carlo experiments reveal that as the cost ratio increases, robustness of linear ...
Date: December 1994
Creator: Haensly, Paul J.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Information Content of Managerial Decisions, Change in Risk, and Complimentary Signals: Evidence on New Bond Issue, Exchange Offer, and Dividend Payments

Description: The effect of a change in capital structure on the risk and return of common stockholders is investigated. Also, the information content of dividends when a firm goes for new outside financing is examined. Data used in the study are collected from the Moody's Bond Survey, the Prentice Hall's Capital Adjustments, the Wall Street Journal Index, and the Center for Research in Security Prices Tape. The study uses an event study methodology. The risk (beta) of common stock before an issuance of debt securities is compared with the risk after the issue. The stock market reaction to the issuance of new debt securities is measured using after-the-event risk. The information content of dividend announcement before a new debt issue is compared to that of after the issue. The findings show that debt issue reduces stock holders' risk if the issuer is a dividend paying company. Also, debt securities issued through an exchange offer increase stockholders' wealth. Finally, issuance of new debt does not affect the information content of dividends.
Date: August 1988
Creator: Iqbal, Zahid
Partner: UNT Libraries

Volume and Performance of Convertible Preferred Stocks Used in Mergers: 1968-1984

Description: This study provides information about convertible preferreds generally and, in particular, those used in financing mergers during the period 1968-1984. Specifically, the following topics are examined: (1) traditional corporate motives for the use of convertible preferreds as a financing means in mergers and acquisitions, (2) annual data about convertible preferreds' issuance by volume and purpose for the period 1968-1984, (3) average annual returns of merger-related convertible preferreds and average annual returns of common stock of the same companies for the period 1968-1980, (4) performance of convertible preferreds in relation to the market in general, and (5) the future of convertible preferreds as a financing instrument in merger activity.
Date: May 1987
Creator: Nijim, Monther M.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Analyzing the Financial Condition of Higher Education Institutions Using Financial Ratio Analysis

Description: The problem concerned the financial indicators used to evaluate the financial condition of the six sister higher education institutions under the authority of the Board of Regents of Oklahoma Colleges. The purposes were to determine the financial ratios that best indicate financial condition; to calculate those financial ratios for the six designated Oklahoma higher education institutions; and to evaluate and compare the financial condition of the six institutions. This study attempted to further the use of financial ratio analysis as an objective addition to subjective studies that examine an institution's definition of its mission, objectives, and goals and its own assessment of the degree to which its resources allow it to attain those goals. The data were obtained from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System; the financial reports were audited by independent certified public accountants and presented to the Board of Regents of Oklahoma Colleges; and John Minter Associates, Inc., provided the national norms. The set of financial ratios identified provides a means to study a single higher education institution through trend analysis and in comparison to national norms. It also works well with a sample of homogeneous institutions with interinstitutional comparison. The techniques are intended to provide a general profile of an institution’s financial health. Cause-and-effect ratio analysis has been proposed as another technique to aid administrators in determining changes in their financial statements and what may have caused them. The study identified a set of financial ratios that summarize the financial condition of a higher education institution. The ratios helped to analyze the financial solvency and viability of the six Oklahoma higher education institutions and focused on the ability of the institutions to meet current and future financial requirements. The importance of financial statement analysis should not be underestimated. The understandable format of financial ratios allows virtually any ...
Date: May 1999
Creator: Buddy, Nancy J.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Texas Energy Banks: Problems and Prospects

Description: The forces that shaped banking practices in the late 1970s and which fostered attempts by the banks to rapidly expand their markets are examined. Why, and to what extent, the Texas energy banks committed themselves to the oil industry in those years, as well as the effects of the oil industry's four-and-one-half year decline on the banks' financial strength is detailed. How banks structured loans to various energy borrowers and why these borrowers lost their ability to service their debts is analyzed. The changes that the Texas banks' painfully learned lessons will bring about in energy and other specialized lending is considered.
Date: August 1987
Creator: Seley, Joan Bonness
Partner: UNT Libraries

Predicting Failure in the Savings and Loan Industry: a Comparison of RAP and GAAP Accounting

Description: The financial crisis facing the United States savings and loan industry has been steadily escalating over the last decade. During this time, accounting treatments concerning various thrift institution transactions have also attracted a great deal of attention. The specialized accounting treatments used in the thrift industry, known as regulatory accounting practices (RAP) have been blamed as one of the culprits hindering the regulators' ability to detect serious financial problems within many institutions. Accordingly, RAP was phased out, and all federally insured savings and loan associations began preparing their financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) as of January 1, 1989. The purpose of this dissertation is to compare the relative predictive values of the two historical cost based accounting conventions (RAP and GAAP) available to the savings and loar? industry during the 1980's. For purposes of this dissertation, predictive value is defined as the usefulness in assessing future financial health and viability. The sample consisted of all the institutions reporting to the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas between 1984 and 1989. Year-end thrift financial report data, obtained from Sheshunoff Information Services, Inc. (Austin, Texas) was used to calculate several financial ratios. The Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas provided a comprehensive listing of all institutions that failed between January 1, 1985 and March 31, 1989. The null hypothesis tested in this study was: no significant differences existed between the predictive values of RAP and GAAP financial statements. Using a dichotomous dependent variable (failed/not failed) and independent variables from prior research, several multinomial logistic models were developed to test the null hypothesis. All models developed failed to reject the null hypothesis.
Date: December 1989
Creator: Kenny, Sara York
Partner: UNT Libraries

Alternative Funding Models for Public School Finance in Texas

Description: This study examined different funding methods for financing public education in order to solve the problems associated with large numbers of school districts and great disparities in property wealth without abandonment of property tax as the major revenue source. Using enrollment and State Property Tax Board data for the 1,061 school districts in Texas in 1986-87, four alternative funding plans were studied to compare the equity and fiscal impact of each on public school finance in Texas. The state and local shares of the total cost of education were computed using a combination of three per-pupil expenditure levels and four funding formulas. The per-pupil expenditure levels used were $3,850, $4,200, and $4,580. The formulas used were representative of a full state funding plan, a percentage equalization plan, a power equalization plan, and a foundation school program plan. Since each of the four plans used significantly higher per-pupil expenditure values, all required a greater monetary investment on the part of the state. However, all plans were found to be equalizing in nature if set per-pupil expenditure values were maintained and no local enrichment was permitted. In addition, each of the four plans, as studied, met the fiscal neutrality standard of the 1987 Edqewood v. Kirbv case. The percentage and power equalization plans required less monetary investment on the part of the state than either full state funding or the foundation school program. As a result of the study, it is recommended that the state consider a combination of plans. For example, the state could employ a full state funding model up to the $3,850 per-pupil expenditure level with added permissible local millage being limited and power equalized. In addition, while each of the plans studied reduces inequity, the increased cost of an adequate public school education suggests that the state consider ...
Date: August 1989
Creator: Hair, Janet C. (Janet Cantrell)
Partner: UNT Libraries

The Determinants of Off-Balance-Sheet Hedging in the Value-Maximizing Firm: an Empirical Analysis

Description: The observed use (and indeed tremendous growth in volume) of forward contracts, futures, options, and swaps as hedges against interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk, and commodity price risk indicates that hedging does add value to the firm. The purpose this research was to empirically examine the value of off-balance-sheet hedging. The benefits of off-balance-sheet hedging were found to accrue from reducing (1) taxes, (2) expected financial distress costs, and (3) agency costs. Taxes. Hedging reduces the firm's tax liability by reducing the variability in taxable income. The value of hedging to the firm is a positive function of the convexity of the tax function and the variability of taxable income. Expected Financial Distress Costs. The value of hedging is a positive function of the degree to which hedging reduces the probability of financial distress and the costs of financial distress. Agency Cost. Due to the fact that bondholders and some managers hold fixed claims while shareholders hold variable claims, shareholders desire more risky projects than do bondholders or managers. Hedging reduces this conflict by allowing shareholders to undertake higher risk projects while protecting the holders of fixed claims. Firms can achieve the same benefits of hedging by using alternative strategies. Among the various alternatives to hedging are modifying the firm's capital structure, purchasing insurance, and modifying dividend policy. The amount of off-balance-sheet hedging activity undertaken by a specific firm is therefore a function of the value of hedging to the firm and the degree to which the firm has used alternatives to hedging. Using a regression analysis, this paper provides empirical evidence on the preceding relations. This study provides (1) the first empirical evidence into the reasons for a value-maximizing firm using off-balance-sheet hedging instruments, and (2) empirical insights into the way in which the firm's hedging decision interrelates ...
Date: December 1988
Creator: Nance, Deana R. (Deana Reneé)
Partner: UNT Libraries