Description: I have studied many factors thought to have influenced past climatic change. Because they might recur, they are possible suspects for future climatic alterations. Most of these factors are totally unpredictable; therefore, they cast a shadow on the validity of derived climatic predictions. Changes in atmospheric conditions and in continental surfaces, variations in solar radiation, and in the earth's orbit around the sun are among the influential mechanisms investigated. Even when models are set up that include the above parameters, their reliability will depend on unpredictable variables totally alien to the model (like volcanic eruptions). Based on climatic records, however, maximum precipitation amounts have been calculated for different probability levels. These seem to correspond well to past precipitation occurrences, derived from tree ring indices. The link between tree ring indices and local climate has been established through regression analysis.
Date: September 1, 1980
Creator: Abeele, W.V.
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