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Planning for a program design for energy environmental analysis. Progress report

Description: The work reported in this progress report is focused on determining the proper scope of a regional assessment study program suitable for BER/ERDA. Within the tentative scope selected, a tentative set of purposes, goals, and objectives is identified for a preliminary specification of a geographical region. The initial specification of the region includes the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. The tentative scope of considerations for the regional assessment study program encompasses the interacting facets of environment, energy, and economic well-being of the region with the overarching goal of reconciling these facets within the decision framework of the region. (auth)
Date: April 30, 1976
Creator: Denton, J C
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

Description: Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.
Date: December 30, 2008
Creator: Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L. & Brenkert, Antoinette L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Techniques for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Rural Unregulated Streams in New York State Excluding Long Island

Description: Abstract: Techniques are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged sites on unregulated rural streams in New York, excluding Long Island. Discharge-frequency data and basin characteristics of 220 gaging stations in New York and adjacent states were used in multiple linear regression analysis to develop equations for floods that range in recurrence interval from 2 to 100 years. Separate equations were developed for northern, southeastern, and western regions of New York. Drainage area is the independent variable needed in all equations; other variables needed, depending on region, are main-channel slope, storage index, and mean annual precipitation. A method is given for obtaining improved discharge-frequency relationships qt gage sites by weighing log-Pearson Type III and regression estimates according to their variances. Basin characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics, and regression and weighted estimates of the discharge-frequency relationship are tabulated for the New York gaging stations used in the regression analysis.
Date: July 1979
Creator: Zembrzuski, Thomas J., Jr. & Dunn, Bernard
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?

Description: This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.
Date: March 1, 1999
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Reduction of Risk in Exploration and Prospect Generation through a Multidisciplinary Basin-Analysis Program in the South-Central Mid-Continent Region

Description: This report will discuss a series of regional studies that were undertaken within the South-Central Mid-Continent region of the U.S. Coverage is also provided about a series of innovative techniques that were used for this assessment.
Date: April 2, 1999
Creator: Banerjee, S.; Barker, C.; Fite, J.; George, S.; Guo, Genliang; Johnson, W. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department


Description: We show that a simple evolutionary algorithm can optimize a set of mesoscale atmospheric model parameters with respect to agreement between the mesoscale simulation and a limited set of synthetic observations. This is illustrated using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). A set of 23 RAMS parameters is optimized by minimizing a cost function based on the root mean square (rms) error between the RAMS simulation and synthetic data (observations derived from a separate RAMS simulation). We find that the optimization can be efficient with relatively modest computer resources, thus operational implementation is possible. The optimization efficiency, however, is found to depend strongly on the procedure used to perturb the 'child' parameters relative to their 'parents' within the evolutionary algorithm. In addition, the meteorological variables included in the rms error and their weighting are found to be an important factor with respect to finding the global optimum.
Date: February 11, 2008
Creator: Werth, D. & O'Steen, L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Regional Analysis of Lg Attenuation: Comparison of 1D Methods in Northern California and Application to the Yellow Sea / Korean Peninsula

Description: The measurement of regional attenuation Q{sup -1} can produce method dependent results. The discrepancies among methods are due to differing parameterizations (e.g., geometrical spreading rates), employed datasets (e.g., choice of path lengths and sources), and methodologies themselves (e.g., measurement in the frequency or time domain). We apply the coda normalization (CN), two-station (TS), reverse two-station (RTS), source-pair/receiver-pair (SPRP), and the new coda-source normalization (CS) methods to measure Q of the regional phase, Lg (Q{sub Lg}), and its power-law dependence on frequency of the form Q{sub 0}f{sup {eta}} with controlled parameterization in the well-studied region of northern California using a high-quality dataset from the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network. We test the sensitivity of each method to changes in geometrical spreading, Lg frequency bandwidth, the distance range of data, and the Lg measurement window. For a given method, there are significant differences in the power-law parameters, Q{sub 0} and {eta}, due to perturbations in the parameterization when evaluated using a conservative pairwise comparison. The CN method is affected most by changes in the distance range, which is most probably due to its fixed coda measurement window. Since, the CS method is best used to calculate the total path attenuation, it is very sensitive to the geometrical spreading assumption. The TS method is most sensitive to the frequency bandwidth, which may be due to its incomplete extraction of the site term. The RTS method is insensitive to parameterization choice, whereas the SPRP method as implemented here in the time-domain for a single path has great error in the power-law model parameters and {eta} is greatly affected by changes in the method parameterization. When presenting results for a given method it is best to calculate Q{sub 0}f{sup {eta}} for multiple parameterizations using some a priori distribution. We also investigate the difference in power-law Q ...
Date: July 6, 2007
Creator: Ford, S R; Dreger, D S; Mayeda, K M; Walter, W R; Malagnini, L & Phillips, W S
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Data-Base System for Northern Midwest Regional Aquifer-System Analysis

Description: From abstract: This report presents a newly-developed "computerized data-base system . . . to facilitate collection and use of large quantities of data for a model study of the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system in the Northern Midwest." It includes maps and diagrams.
Date: January 1981
Creator: Kontis, A. L. & Mandle, R. J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates

Description: This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.
Date: October 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Regional growth and energy supply: Is there an energy security issue?

Description: This study examines how the growth of the developing world might affect energy markets in the future. Based on recent growth trends, world energy demand could reasonably be expected to grow from about 350 Exajoules (EJ: 1.0E18=0.95 Quad) to nearly 1025 EJ by the year 2020, nearly 3x current consumption estimates. Introduction of more energy-efficient technologies could reduce this growth by about 17% to 830 EJ. But one cannot rely exclusively on current trends to forecast future energy demand. The growth of the developing world will interact with supply to affect prices, which in turn will mitigate the growth of demand, and growth rates of energy use will be much more modes. Under the Business as Usual scenario, energy demand will grow to 835 EJ by 2020, and this could be reduced a further 15% to 714 EJ through the adoption of more energy efficient technologies. Fuel prices based on model results are analyzed. Energy security implications of rapid growth in the developing world are considered and found to be of likely little significance.
Date: December 1, 1996
Creator: Roop, J.M.; Freund, K.A.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Johnson, A.K.; Paananen, O.H. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Changes in monthly mean clod amount over China: A closer look

Description: Clouds play a primary role in governing the heat balance of the earth-atmosphere system. Analysis of historical cloudiness data is important in attempts to understand the nature of past climate changes and potential future changes. The studies by Kaiser (1993) and Kaiser and Vose (1994) (hereafter referred to as KKV) do show some evidence of significant regional and seasonal changes. In KKV, monthly records of cloud amount from 60 stations, made available to the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) through an agreement with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) were analyzed for trends over the period 1954--88. Since the work of KKV, much more historical weather data have been made available to CDIAC via a recently established research agreement between DOE and the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). Here the authors use some of these data to take a closer look at cloudiness changes over China in recent decades.
Date: February 1, 1997
Creator: Kaiser, D.P. & Vose, R.S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Geomorphic responses as indicators of paleoclimate and climatic change

Description: There is little doubt that climate is an important parameter affecting the shape of the Earth`s surface. However absolute observance to the principles of climatic geomorphology leads us away from the study of processes because the analyses passes directly from climate to landscape form. An alternative approach is to examine the effects of climate change on the nature of the processes operating in the near surface environment. Utilizing this methodology, the climate-process relations take on greater significance, and lead to an understanding of the response(s) of geomorphic systems to shifts in climatic regime. Given that geomorphic systems respond to changes in climate regime, it should also be true that delineation of the changes in the types, rates, and magnitudes of geomorphic processes will provide insights into the timing and nature of past shifts in climate, particularly effective moisture. It is this approach that has been utilized herein. Specifically, geomorphic responses in eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial systems that have resulted in erosional and depositional events have been documented for several sites in Nevada (Figure 1), and used to infer the timing and character of climatic change in the Basin and Range Physiographic Province. The results and conclusions of the specific studies are provided.
Date: July 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

International ESCO business opportunities and challenges: a Japanese case study

Description: Recently, US energy service companies (ESCOs) have begun to actively explore markets outside the US. Despite the needs of many countries for ESCO involvement, ESCOs face many challenges (i.e., marketing, financial, institutional, political and cultural barriers). Consequently, most of these firms pursue international project opportunities very selectively due to the costs and risks associated with project development. Despite these barriers, some ESCOs view international work as a strategic expansion of their business, assuming that there will be adequate business in the future to repay them for their initial investment. In this paper, the authors present the findings from a recently completed study on the proposed development of an ESCO industry in Japan. The study was based on four sources of information: (1) a review of the published and unpublished literature on ESCOs; (2) interviews with 26 ESCOs in the US, the US Department of Energy, and the National Association of Energy Service Companies (NAESCO); (3) ESCO presentations at the October 1996 NAESCO meeting; and (4) informal discussions with ESCO experts in the US. They believe that the lessons learned in this study can be transferred or applied to other countries interested in developing an ESCO industry. While energy prices have remained relatively stable over the last several years in Japan and energy capacity is not perceived as a near-term problem, other ``market drivers`` necessary for the emergence of a successful and vibrant ESCO industry exist in Japan. Despite the presence of these market drivers, significant barriers to the successful development of an ESCO industry exist in Japan.
Date: October 1, 1997
Creator: Vine, E. & Murakoshi, C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Statistical cloud coverage as a function of cloud optical thickness

Description: The time-averaged, daylight fractional statistical cloud coverages as a function of cloud optical thickness and selected values of cloud transmission were determined for various geographic areas using D1 data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The regions of interest chosen for this report are: global earth, global sea, global land, global coast, and the six 30{degree}-latitude bands over sea, over land, and over coast with longitude 0{degree}--360{degree}. This statistical information is deduced from data determined from satellite measurements of terrestrial, atmospheric and cloud properties by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. In particular the results are based on the ISCCP D1 data base.
Date: July 1, 1998
Creator: Brower, K.L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Hanford, diversification, and the Tri-Cities Economy FY 1998

Description: The missions of the U.S. Department of Energy's Richland Operations Office (DOE/RL) are to safely manage the Hanford Site, to manage and clean up its legacy wastes, and to develop and deploy new science and technology in the environmental and energy fields. Collectively, DOE/RL and its contractors are the most important single entity in the Tri-Cities local economy (Pasco, Kennewick, and Richland, Washington, and the surrounding area). Although the relevant economic region affected by DOE/RL and its contractors actually embraces a geographic area reaching from Yakima in the west to Walla Walla in the east and from Moses Lake in the north to Pendleton, Oregon, in the south, over 90% of economic impacts likely occur in Benton and Franklin Counties. These two counties are defined as the ''local'' Tri-Cities economy for purposes of this study (see Figure 1). In the federal fiscal year (IV) 1998 (October 1, 1997 through September 30, 1998), the total impact of DOEs local $1.6 billion budget was felt through payrolls of $519 million and local purchases of goods and services of $246 million. The total local spending of $765 million was down slightly from the FY 1997 total of $774 million. Taking into account the slightly greater multiplier effects of this spending due to changes in its mix, the DOE/RL budget sustained an estimated 36% of all local employment (31,200 out of 86,000 jobs) and up to 64% of local wage income ($1.55 billion out of $2.40 billion). This was up slightly from the year before (29,500 jobs, $1.49 billion income). DOE budget increases in FY 1999 are expected to result in a net increase of about 200 local DOE contractor jobs over the September 30, 1998 level, or about equal to the FY 1998 average. In addition, economic diversification more than offset the impact ...
Date: April 14, 1999
Creator: SCOTT, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Regional transportation simulations

Description: For transportation planning applications, it is useful to not only model each individual traveler, but also the decision-making process leading to their travel demand. Simulation-based modeling of this process means iterations between the actual transportation micro-simulation and the modules simulating the process making the plans. This means that for understanding a single day of travel, it may be necessary to simulate that day hundreds of times for the iteration process, leading to a considerable strain on computational resources.
Date: July 1998
Creator: Nagel, K.; Rickert, M.; Frye, R.; Stretz, P.; Simon, P.; Jacob, R. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Benchmarking East Tennessee`s economic capacity

Description: This presentation is comprised of viewgraphs delineating major economic factors operating in 15 counties in East Tennessee. The purpose of the information presented is to provide a benchmark analysis of economic conditions for use in guiding economic growth in the region. The emphasis of the presentation is economic infrastructure, which is classified into six categories: human resources, technology, financial resources, physical infrastructure, quality of life, and tax and regulation. Data for analysis of key indicators in each of the categories are presented. Preliminary analyses, in the form of strengths and weaknesses and comparison to reference groups, are given.
Date: April 20, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A regional-scale particle-tracking method for nonstationary fractured media

Description: A regional scale transport model is introduced that is applicable to non-stationary and statistically inhomogeneous fractured media, provided that hydraulic flow, but not necessarily solute transport, can be approximated by equivalent continuum properties at some block scale. Upscaled flow and transport block properties are transferred from multiple fracture network realizations to a regional model with grid elements of equal size to that found valid for continuum approximation of flow. In the large-scale model, flow is solved in a stochastic continuum framework, whereas the transport calculations employ a random walk procedure. Block-wise transit times are sampled from distributions linked to each block-conductivity based on its underlying fracture network. To account for channeled transport larger than the block scale, several alternatives in sampling algorithm are introduced and compared. The most reasonable alternative incorporates a spatial persistence length in sampling the particle transit times; this tracer transport persistence length is related to interblock channeling, and is quantified by the number N of blocks. The approach is demonstrated for a set of field data, and the obtained regional-scale particle breakthroughs are analyzed. These are fitted to the one-dimensional advective-dispersive equation to determine an effective macroscale dispersion coefficient. An interesting finding is that this macroscale dispersion coefficient is found to be a linear function of the transport persistence, N, with a slope equal to a representative mean block-scale dispersion coefficient and a constant that incorporates background dispersion arising from the regional heterogeneous conductivity field.
Date: November 1, 2004
Creator: Ohman, Johan; Niemi, Auli & Tsang, Chin-Fu
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Development of State Interindustry Models for Rocky Mountain Region and California

Description: Interindustry tables have been developed for the eight Rocky Mountain States and California. These tables are based on the 367-order 1967 national interindustry table. The national matrix was expanded to 404 sectors by disaggregating the seven minerals industries to 44 industries. The state tables can be used for energy and other resource analysis. Regional impacts of alternate development strategies can be evaluated with their use. A general computer program has been developed to facilitate construction of state interindustry tables.
Date: February 1, 1976
Creator: Sathaye, Jayant A. & Kunin, Leonard
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Inversion of Airborne Contaminants in a Regional Model

Description: We are interested in a DDDAS problem of localization of airborne contaminant releases in regional atmospheric transport models from sparse observations. Given measurements of the contaminant over an observation window at a small number of points in space, and a velocity field as predicted for example by a mesoscopic weather model, we seek an estimate of the state of the contaminant at the beginning of the observation interval that minimizes the least squares misfit between measured and predicted contaminant field, subject to the convection-diffusion equation for the contaminant. Once the ''initial'' conditions are estimated by solution of the inverse problem, we issue predictions of the evolution of the contaminant, the observation window is advanced in time, and the process repeated to issue a new prediction, in the style of 4D-Var. We design an appropriate numerical strategy that exploits the spectral structure of the inverse operator, and leads to efficient and accurate resolution of the inverse problem. Numerical experiments verify that high resolution inversion can be carried out rapidly for a well-resolved terrain model of the greater Los Angeles area.
Date: January 10, 2007
Creator: Akcelik, V.; Biros, G.; Draganescu, A.; Ghattas, O.; Hill, J.; van Bloemen Waanders, B. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department