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A Probabilistic Approach to Classifying Supernovae UsingPhotometric Information

Description: This paper presents a novel method for determining the probability that a supernova candidate belongs to a known supernova type (such as Ia, Ibc, IIL, etc.), using its photometric information alone. It is validated with Monte Carlo, and both space- and ground-based data. We examine the application of the method to well-sampled as well as poorly sampled supernova light curves and investigate to what extent the best currently available supernova models can be used for typing supernova candidates. Central to the method is the assumption that a supernova candidate belongs to a group of objects that can be modeled; we therefore discuss possible ways of removing anomalous or less well understood events from the sample. This method is particularly advantageous for analyses where the purity of the supernova sample is of the essence, or for those where it is important to know the number of the supernova candidates of a certain type (e.g., in supernova rate studies).
Date: December 14, 2006
Creator: Kuznetsova, Natalia V. & Connolly, Brian M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Quiet planting in the locked constraints satisfaction problems

Description: We study the planted ensemble of locked constraint satisfaction problems. We describe the connection between the random and planted ensembles. The use of the cavity method is combined with arguments from reconstruction on trees and first and second moment considerations; in particular the connection with the reconstruction on trees appears to be crucial. Our main result is the location of the hard region in the planted ensemble, thus providing hard satisfiable benchmarks. In a part of that hard region instances have with high probability a single satisfying assignment.
Date: January 1, 2009
Creator: Zdeborova, Lenka & Krzakala, Florent
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The Relationship of Expectancy of Success to Objective Probability and Consequences of Performance

Description: The work reviews a article published by N. T. Feather about five approaches which relate to the analysis of behavior in a choice situation where a decision is made between alternatives having different subjective probabilities of attainment. The relationship between choice potential and success probability is affect by the type of situation in which the choice is made.
Date: January 1968
Creator: Stephens, George Douglas
Partner: UNT Libraries

Proofs of Some Limit Theorems in Probability

Description: This study gives detailed proofs of some limit theorems in probability which are important in theoretical and applied probability, The general introduction contains definitions and theorems that are basic tools of the later development. Included in this first chapter is material concerning normal distributions and characteristic functions, The second chapter introduces lower and upper bounds of the ratio of the binomial distribution to the normal distribution., Then these bound are used to prove the local Deioivre-Laplace limit theorem. The third chapter includes proofs of the central limit theorems for identically distributed and non-identically distributed random variables,
Date: December 1974
Creator: Hwang, E-Bin
Partner: UNT Libraries

Counting Methods and Equipment for Mean-Value Measurements in Turbulence Research

Description: Note presenting methods of measuring the probability distributions and mean values of random functions as encountered in turbulence research. Applications to the measurement of probability distributions of the axial velocity fluctuation and its derivative in isotropic turbulence are shown.
Date: October 1953
Creator: Liepmann, H. W. & Robinson, M. S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Performance Evaluation of UNT Apogee Stadium Wind Turbines

Description: The following report chronicles the University of North Texas Wind Turbine Project at Apogee Stadium. The timeline of events will include the feasibility study conducted by and for the university, grant awards from the Texas State Energy Conservation Office to fund the project, and a three-year sample of real time performance data since installation. The purpose of this case study is to compare the energy generation estimates by various stakeholders to the measured energy generation using a new but uniform performance relationship. In order to optimize energy generation in wind turbine generator systems, the most common wind speeds measured at the site should also be the most efficient wind speeds at which the wind turbine can convert the kinetic energy in the wind into mechanical energy and ultimately electrical energy. The tool used to convey this relationship will be a figure plotting the wind speed profile against the efficiency curve of the wind turbine. Applying this relationship tool to the UNT Apogee Stadium wind turbines provided valuable results. The most common wind speeds at Apogee Stadium are not the most efficient wind speed for the turbine. Also, the most common wind speeds were near the lower limit of the wind turbine’s performance parameters. This scenario was evident in both the energy generation predictions as well as the real-time recorded data. This case study will also present the economic analysis of the Apogee Stadium wind turbines using another tool that was not previously used in the feasibility study. The case study concludes with future steps to improve wind turbine performance, and to budget future cost using past, present and future energy savings.
Date: May 2016
Creator: Mccary, William Donald
Partner: UNT Libraries

Bayesian analysis of the solar neutrino anomaly

Description: We present an analysis of the recent solar neutrino data from the five experiments using Bayesian approach. We extract quantitative and easily understandable information pertaining to the solar neutrino problem. The probability distributions for the individual neutrino fluxes and, discrepancy distribution for B and Be fluxes, which include theoretical and experimental uncertainties have been extracted. The analysis carried out assuming that the neutrinos are unaltered during their passage from the sun to earth, clearly indicate that the observed PP flux is consistent with the 1995 standard solar model predictions of Bahcall and Pinsonneault within 2{sigma} (standard deviation), whereas the {sup 8}B flux is down by more than 12{sigma} and the {sup 7}Be flux is maximally suppressed. We also deduce the experimental survival probability for the solar neutrinos as a function of their energy in a model-independent way. We find that the shape of that distribution is in qualitative agreement with the MSW oscillation predictions.
Date: February 1, 1998
Creator: Bhat, C.M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Gaining analytic control of parton showers

Description: Parton showers are widely used to generate fully exclusive final states needed to compare theoretical models to experimental observations. While, in general, parton showers give a good description of the experimental data, the precise functional form of the probability distribution underlying the event generation is generally not known. The reason is that realistic parton showers are required to conserve four-momentum at each vertex. In this paper we investigate in detail how four-momentum conservation is enforced in a standard parton shower and why this destroysthe analytic control of the probability distribution. We show how to modify a parton shower algorithm such that it conserves four-momentum at each vertex, but for which the full analytic form of the probability distribution is known. We then comment how this analytic control can be used to match matrix element calculations with parton showers, and to estimate effects of power corrections and other uncertainties in parton showers.
Date: May 14, 2007
Creator: Tackmann, Frank; Bauer, Christian W. & Tackmann, Frank J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A determination of the spatial concordance between Lyme disease incidence and habitat probability of its primary vector Ixodes scapularis (black-legged tick)

Description: This article involves mapping the probability of occurrence that the disease vector exists in the environment, mapping the incidence of Lyme disease in the human population and examining the spatial concordance between the probability map and incidence map.
Date: November 1, 2014
Creator: Atkinson, Samuel F.; Sarkar, Sahotra; Avina, Aldo; Schuermann, Jim A. & Williamson, Phillip C.
Partner: UNT College of Arts and Sciences

EVIDENCE IN CRATER AGES FOR PERIODIC IMPACTS ON THE EARTH

Description: Recent evidence has indicated that the impact of a comet or asteroid may have been responsible for mass extinction at the ends of both the Cretaceous and the Eocene. Quantitative analysis by Raup and Sepkoski showed that mass extinctions occur with a 26-Myr period, similar to the period seen in qualitative pelagic records by Fischer and Arthur. To account for the possibility of periodic comet showers, Davis et al. proposed that such showers could be triggered by an unseen solar companion star as it passes through perihelion on a moderately eccentric orbit. To test a prediction implicit in this model we examined records of large impact craters on the Earth. We report here that most of the craters occur in a 28.4-Myr cycle. Within measurement errors, this period and its phase are the same as those found in the fossil mass extinctions. The probability that such agreement is accidental is 1 in 10.
Date: January 1, 1984
Creator: Alvarez, W. & Muller, R.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Constructor:synthesizing information about uncertain variables.

Description: Constructor is software for the Microsoft Windows microcomputer environment that facilitates the collation of empirical information and expert judgment for the specification of probability distributions, probability boxes, random sets or Dempster-Shafer structures from data, qualitative shape information, constraints on moments, order statistics, densities, and coverage probabilities about uncertain unidimensional quantities. These quantities may be real-valued, integer-valued or logical values.
Date: September 1, 2005
Creator: Tucker, W. Troy (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY) & Myers, David S. (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY)
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Subspace Detectors: Theory

Description: Broadband subspace detectors are introduced for seismological applications that require the detection of repetitive sources that produce similar, yet significantly variable seismic signals. Like correlation detectors, of which they are a generalization, subspace detectors often permit remarkably sensitive detection of small events. The subspace detector derives its name from the fact that it projects a sliding window of data drawn from a continuous stream onto a vector signal subspace spanning the collection of signals expected to be generated by a particular source. Empirical procedures are presented for designing subspaces from clusters of events characterizing a source. Furthermore, a solution is presented for the problem of selecting the dimension of the subspace to maximize the probability of detecting repetitive events at a fixed false alarm rate. An example illustrates subspace design and detection using events in the 2002 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm.
Date: July 11, 2006
Creator: Harris, D B
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

TABULATION OF THE HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FOR LOT SIZES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 50

Description: A tabulation (too large to be included in the memorandum) of the hypergeometric probability distribution for lot sizes up to and including 50 is described. Uses of the tabulation in sampling inspection and reliability are described. The tabulation provides a simple way of testing the equality of two proportions when the total number of observations on the proportions does not exceed 50. (auth)
Date: August 13, 1959
Creator: Owen, D B
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Mycielski-Regular Measures

Description: Let μ be a Radon probability measure on M, the d-dimensional Real Euclidean space (where d is a positive integer), and f a measurable function. Let P be the space of sequences whose coordinates are elements in M. Then, for any point x in M, define a function ƒn on M and P that looks at the first n terms of an element of P and evaluates f at the first of those n terms that minimizes the distance to x in M. The measures for which such sequences converge in measure to f for almost every sequence are called Mycielski-regular. We show that the self-similar measure generated by a finite family of contracting similitudes and which up to a constant is the Hausdorff measure in its dimension on an invariant set C is Mycielski-regular.
Date: August 2011
Creator: Bass, Jeremiah Joseph
Partner: UNT Libraries

Analysis Of Sequential Barycenter Random Probability Measures via Discrete Constructions

Description: Hill and Monticino (1998) introduced a constructive method for generating random probability measures with a prescribed mean or distribution on the mean. The method involves sequentially generating an array of barycenters that uniquely defines a probability measure. This work analyzes statistical properties of the measures generated by sequential barycenter array constructions. Specifically, this work addresses how changing the base measures of the construction affects the statististics of measures generated by the SBA construction. A relationship between statistics associated with a finite level version of the SBA construction and the full construction is developed. Monte Carlo statistical experiments are used to simulate the effect changing base measures has on the statistics associated with the finite level construction.
Date: December 2002
Creator: Valdes, LeRoy I.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Statistical Studies on Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Radiation Detection

Description: A Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) algorithm helps to increase the reliability and speed of radiation detection. This algorithm is further improved to reduce spatial gap and false alarm. SPRT, using Last-in-First-Elected-Last-Out (LIFELO) technique, reduces the error between the radiation measured and resultant alarm. Statistical analysis determines the reduction of spatial error and false alarm.
Date: July 1, 2007
Creator: Warnick Kernan, Ding Yuan, et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Anarchy and hierarchy

Description: We advocate a new approach to study models of fermion massesand mixings, namely anarchy proposed in hep-ph/9911341. In this approach,we scan the O(1) coefficients randomly. We argue that this is the correctapproach when the fundamental theory is sufficiently complicated.Assuming there is no physical distinction among three generations ofneutrinos, the probability distributions in MNS mixing angles can bepredicted independent of the choice of the measure. This is because themixing angles are distributed according to the Haar measure of the Liegroups whose elements diagonalize the mass matrices. The near-maximalmixings, as observed in the atmospheric neutrino data and as required inthe LMA solution to the solar neutrino problem, are highly probable. Asmall hierarchy between the Delta m2 for the atmospheric and the solarneutrinos is obtained very easily; the complex seesaw case gives ahierarchy of a factor of 20 as the most probable one, even though thisconclusion is more measure-dependent. U_e3 has to be just below thecurrent limit from the CHOOZ experiment. The CP-violating parameter sindelta is preferred to be maximal. We present a simple SU(5)-likeextension of anarchy to the charged-lepton and quark sectors which workswell phenomenologically.
Date: September 14, 2000
Creator: Haba, Naoyuki & Murayama, Hitoshi
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department