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U.S. oil production: the effect of low oil prices

Description: This special report presents the results of OTA’s analyses of a group of factors we believe will strongly influence the future direction of U.S. oil production. These factors include the expected profitability of new investments in drilling, the potential of new oil exploration, development, and production technologies, the nature of the remaining oil resource base, and structural changes in the oil industry. The special report also provides a brief discussion of some policy options for Congress to consider if it decides to moderate the expected accelerated decline in U.S. oil production.
Date: July 1987
Creator: United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Market Timing, Forecast Ability and Information Flow in Petroleum Futures Markets

Description: Three petroleum futures contracts are examined over a ten-year period from 1986 to 1996. Intertemporal changes in futures prices and the net open interest positions of three trader types are compared to determine what, if any, market timing ability the traders have. Seasonal variation is considered and a simple trading rule is adopted to determine the dollar-return potential for market participation and shed light on issues of market efficiency.
Date: December 1997
Creator: Buchanan, William K.
Partner: UNT Libraries

Budget-Related Prediction Models in the Business Environment with Special Reference to Spot Price Predictions

Description: The purpose of this research is to study and improve decision accuracy in the real world. Spot price prediction of petroleum products, in a budgeting context, is the task chosen to study prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy of executives in a multinational oil company is examined. The Brunswik Lens Model framework is used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Predictions of the individuals, the composite group (mathematical average of the individuals), the interacting group, and the environmental model were compared. Predictions of the individuals were obtained through a laboratory experiment in which experts were used as subjects. The subjects were required to make spot price predictions for two petroleum products. Eight predictor variables that were actually used by the subjects in real-world predictions were elicited through an interview process. Data for a 15 month period were used to construct 31 cases for each of the two products. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by comparing predictions with the actual spot prices. Predictions of the composite group were obtained by averaging the predictions of the individuals. Interacting group predictions were obtained ex post from the company's records. The study found the interacting group to be the least accurate. The implication of this finding is that even though an interacting group may be desirable for information synthesis, evaluation, or working toward group consensus, it is undesirable if prediction accuracy is critical. The accuracy of the environmental model was found to be the highest. This suggests that apart from random error, misweighting of cues by individuals and groups affects prediction accuracy. Another implication of this study is that the environmental model can also be used as an additional input in the prediction process to improve accuracy.
Date: August 1986
Creator: Kumar, Akhil
Partner: UNT Libraries

[Project Summary: Effects of Crude Oil Price Instability on OCS Oil and Gas Development and the Economic Performance of the U.S. Coastal Gulf States]

Description: Summary describing the work completed at Louisiana State University Center for Energy Studies for 'Effects of Crude Oil Price Instability on OCS Oil and Gas Development and the Economic Performance of the U.S. Coastal Gulf States.' It includes background information on the project funding and sponsorship, goals, methodology, and findings.
Date: November 2006
Creator: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Economic Effects of Petroleum Prices and Production in the Gulf of Mexico OCS on the U.S. Gulf Coast Economy

Description: Report on the effects of crude oil prices on the oil and gas industry, U.S. interest rates, gross domestic product and the Gulf Coast economy - as determined by personal income, unemployment rate and revenue.
Date: October 2006
Creator: Iledare, Omowumi O. & Olatubi, Williams O.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department