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Budget-Related Prediction Models in the Business Environment with Special Reference to Spot Price Predictions

Description: The purpose of this research is to study and improve decision accuracy in the real world. Spot price prediction of petroleum products, in a budgeting context, is the task chosen to study prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy of executives in a multinational oil company is examined. The Brunswik Lens Model framework is used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Predictions of the individuals, the composite group (mathematical average of the individuals), the interacting group, and the environmental model were compared. Predictions of the individuals were obtained through a laboratory experiment in which experts were used as subjects. The subjects were required to make spot price predictions for two petroleum products. Eight predictor variables that were actually used by the subjects in real-world predictions were elicited through an interview process. Data for a 15 month period were used to construct 31 cases for each of the two products. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by comparing predictions with the actual spot prices. Predictions of the composite group were obtained by averaging the predictions of the individuals. Interacting group predictions were obtained ex post from the company's records. The study found the interacting group to be the least accurate. The implication of this finding is that even though an interacting group may be desirable for information synthesis, evaluation, or working toward group consensus, it is undesirable if prediction accuracy is critical. The accuracy of the environmental model was found to be the highest. This suggests that apart from random error, misweighting of cues by individuals and groups affects prediction accuracy. Another implication of this study is that the environmental model can also be used as an additional input in the prediction process to improve accuracy.
Date: August 1986
Creator: Kumar, Akhil
Partner: UNT Libraries

U.S. oil production: the effect of low oil prices

Description: This special report presents the results of OTA’s analyses of a group of factors we believe will strongly influence the future direction of U.S. oil production. These factors include the expected profitability of new investments in drilling, the potential of new oil exploration, development, and production technologies, the nature of the remaining oil resource base, and structural changes in the oil industry. The special report also provides a brief discussion of some policy options for Congress to consider if it decides to moderate the expected accelerated decline in U.S. oil production.
Date: July 1987
Creator: United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Petroleum Supply Monthly, September 1998, with data for July 1998

Description: The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Division within the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. The other publications are the Weekly Petroleum Status Report WPSR), the Winter Fuels Report, and the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA). Data presented in the PSM describe the suppiy and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 States and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States. Data presented in the PSM are divided into two sections: Summary Statistics and Detailed Statistics
Date: September 28, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy Primer: A Handbook of Energy Market Basics

Description: This primer explores the workings of the wholesale markets for natural gas, electricity and oil, which are forms of energy that are of particular interest to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission pursuant to its authority under the Natural Gas Act, the Federal Power Act, and the Interstate Commerce Act.
Date: November 2015
Creator: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Updated estimation of energy efficiencies of U.S. petroleum refineries.

Description: Evaluation of life-cycle (or well-to-wheels, WTW) energy and emission impacts of vehicle/fuel systems requires energy use (or energy efficiencies) of energy processing or conversion activities. In most such studies, petroleum fuels are included. Thus, determination of energy efficiencies of petroleum refineries becomes a necessary step for life-cycle analyses of vehicle/fuel systems. Petroleum refinery energy efficiencies can then be used to determine the total amount of process energy use for refinery operation. Furthermore, since refineries produce multiple products, allocation of energy use and emissions associated with petroleum refineries to various petroleum products is needed for WTW analysis of individual fuels such as gasoline and diesel. In particular, GREET, the life-cycle model developed at Argonne National Laboratory with DOE sponsorship, compares energy use and emissions of various transportation fuels including gasoline and diesel. Energy use in petroleum refineries is key components of well-to-pump (WTP) energy use and emissions of gasoline and diesel. In GREET, petroleum refinery overall energy efficiencies are used to determine petroleum product specific energy efficiencies. Argonne has developed petroleum refining efficiencies from LP simulations of petroleum refineries and EIA survey data of petroleum refineries up to 2006 (see Wang, 2008). This memo documents Argonne's most recent update of petroleum refining efficiencies.
Date: December 8, 2010
Creator: Palou-Rivera, I. & Wang, M. Q. (Energy Systems)
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Crude Oil and Crude Oil Derivatives Transactions by Oil and Gas Producers.

Description: This study attempts to resolve two important issues. First, it investigates the diversification benefit of crude oil for equities. Second, it examines whether or not crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers can change shareholders' wealth. With these two major goals in mind, I study the risk and return profile of crude oil, the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions, and the systematic risk exposure effect of crude oil derivatives transactions. In contrast with previous studies, this study applies the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) methodology to measure the risk and return profile of crude oil. The results show that crude oil is negatively correlated with stocks so adding crude oil into a portfolio with equities can provide significant diversification benefits for the portfolio. Given the diversification benefit of crude oil mixed with equities, this study then examines the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers. Differing from traditional corporate risk management literature, this study examines corporate derivatives transactions from the shareholders' portfolio perspective. The results show that crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers do impact value. If oil and gas producing companies stop shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, company stock prices increase significantly. In contrast, if oil and gas producing companies start shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, stock prices drop marginally significantly. Thus, hedging by producers is not necessarily good. This paper, however, finds that changes in policy regarding crude oil derivatives transactions cannot significantly affect the beta of shareholders' portfolios. The value effect, therefore, cannot be attributed to any systematic risk exposure change of shareholders' portfolios. Market completeness, transaction costs, and economies of scale are identified as possible sources of value effect. The following conclusions have been obtained in this study. Crude oil provides significant diversification benefits ...
Date: December 2007
Creator: Xu, He
Partner: UNT Libraries

Petroleum marketing monthly, December 1998 with data for September 1998

Description: The Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o.b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. Monthly statistics on purchases of crude oil and sales of petroleum products are presented in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly in five sections: summary statistics; crude oil prices; prices of petroleum products; volumes of petroleum products; and prime supplier sales volumes of petroleum products for local consumption. 7 figs., 50 tabs.
Date: December 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Petroleum supply monthly with data for March 1997

Description: The Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) is one of a family of four publications produced by the Petroleum Supply Division within the Energy Information Administration reflecting different levels of data timeliness and completeness. Data presented in the PSM describe the supply and disposition of petroleum products in the United States and major U.S. geographic regions. The data series describe production, imports and exports, inter-Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District movements, and inventories by the primary suppliers of petroleum products in the United States (50 states and the District of Columbia). The reporting universe includes those petroleum sectors in primary supply. Included are: petroleum refiners, motor gasoline blenders, operators of natural gas processing plants and fractionators, inter-PAD transporters, importers, and major inventory holders of petroleum products and crude oil. When aggregated, the data reported by these sectors approximately represent the consumption of petroleum products in the United States.
Date: May 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Environmental standards for primary and secondary containment systems and transfer stations

Description: Environmental Standards for Primary and Secondary Containment Systems and Transfer Stations will supersede all previous requirements for design of dikes, storage tanks, and transfer stations in order to maintain consistency throughout the Y-12 Plant. This document is organized into six distinct sections, each with a specific purpose. Section I outlines the objectives of the document along with its applications and limitations; this section should be of interest to all readers for essential background information. Section II lists all definitions and is consistent with definitions outlined by environmental regulations. Section III discusses primary containment standards. Section IV outlines secondary containment standards; this section contains the actual standards for the diking of storage tanks and storage containers. Section V discusses transfer station standards. Section VI of this document outlines how exemptions may be granted for specific cases.
Date: April 1, 1995
Creator: Maguire, D.M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The Energy Information Administration`s assessment of reformulated gasoline. Volume 1

Description: This report is divided into two volumes. The first volume contains EIA`s findings and analyses on reformulated gasoline as it affects the petroleum industry. The data contained herein should assist members of the Congress, Federal, State and local governments, analysts, researchers, the media and academia to understand the RFG program and the current status of implementation. This second volume contains 10 appendices that include letter from Congressman Dingell, survey results, survey forms, and historical summary data. A glossary and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are printed in Volumes 1 and 2.
Date: September 28, 1994
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Investigation of flushing and clean-out methods for refrigeration equipment to ensure system compatibility

Description: SECTION 608 of the Clean Air Act Amendments has altered much of the refrigeration service contracting industry. MCLR Project Number 660-52502 was established to examine two areas where the Amendments are influencing contractors to determine if more cost-effective service procedures might be developed. One area where existing service procedures are being revisited involves the removal of contaminants from a refrigeration system after a motor burnout. At one time, a Class 1 substance such as CFC-11 or CFC-113 was used as a flushing agent for cleaning a system after a burnout. On large systems, the compressor was disassembled, and the parts were cleaned using 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCA) or a TCA-containing mixture. Such alternatives are seldom possible today, as the manufacture of Class 1 substances was banned on January 1, 1996. This report describes processes for mineral oil removal, process alternatives for servicing burnouts, solvents, and laboratory retrofit tests.
Date: April 24, 1996
Creator: Byrne, J.J.; Shows, M. & Abel, M.W.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Petroleum marketing monthly, January 1999 with data for October 1998

Description: The Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. The publication presents statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales for use by industry, government, private sector analysts, educational institutions, and consumers. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the f.o.b. and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. Monthly statistics on purchases of crude oil and sales of petroleum products are presented in the Petroleum Marketing Monthly in five sections: summary statistics; crude oil prices; prices of petroleum products; volumes of petroleum products; and prime supplier sales volumes of petroleum products for local consumption. 7 figs., 50 tabs.
Date: January 1, 1999
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

They all like it hot: faster cleanup of contaminated soil and groundwater

Description: Clean up a greasy kitchen spill with cold water and the going is slow. Us hot water instead and progress improves markedly. So it makes sense that cleanup of greasy underground contaminants such as gasoline might go faster if hot water or steam were somehow added to the process. The Environmental Protection Agency named hundreds of sites to the Superfund list - sites that have been contaminated with petroleum products or petroleum products or solvents. Elsewhere across the country, thousands of properties not identified on federal cleanup lists are contaminated as well. Given that under current regulations, underground accumulations of solvent and hydrocarbon contaminants (the most serious cause of groundwater pollution) must be cleaned up, finding a rapid and effective method of removing them is imperative. In the early 1990`s, in collaboration with the School of Engineering at the University of California at Berkeley, Lawrence Livermore developed dynamic underground stripping. This method for treating underground contaminants with heat is much faster and more effective than traditional treatment methods.
Date: March 1, 1998
Creator: Newmark, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Shale oil value enhancement research. Fourth quarterly report, 1996

Description: Concurrent activities are ongoing in all key areas, namely, (a) construction and startup of a flow THDA reactor system, (b) development of KPX product slate, and (c) conducting industrial liaison for assembly of the KPX consortium. Excellent progress is being made in all cases. Our market analysis and industrial feedback have caused us to focus on pyridine itself. We are concentrating our effort toward increasing the yield of pyridine at present. To produce sufficient quantity of sample for marketing purpose, we needed an in- house flow THDA unit. This unit is in its startup phase. The completion of the flow THDA unit will allow us to produce pyridine effectively. The liaison with potential industrial partners is continuing. At the present time, we have a confidentiality agreement with many of the major target companies. Follow-up work has been initiated and excellent progress has been made. To expedite the process, we reached an agreement with Mr. David Purpi as a consultant to assist on the industrial liaison. Mr Purpi has served many years as a marketing executive for a major pyridine manufacturer and has extensive experience in pyridine production and marketing. His appointment to work on this project has been approved by the DOE.
Date: September 1, 1997
Creator: Bunger, J.W.; Russell, C.P.; Tsai, J.C.H.; Cogswell, D.E. & Wright, A.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The Energy Information Administration`s assessment of reformulated gasoline. Volume 2

Description: This report is divided into two volumes. This first volume contains EIA`s findings and analyses on reformulated gasoline as it affects the petroleum industry. The data contained herein should assist members of the Congress, Federal, State and local governments, analysts, researchers, the media and academia to understand the RFG program and the current status of implementation. The second volume contains 10 appendices that include letter from Congressman Dingell, survey results, survey forms, and historical summary data. A glossary and a list of acronyms and abbreviations are printed in Volumes 1 and 2.
Date: September 29, 1994
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Petroleum marketing monthly with data for January 1998

Description: This publication provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oils and refined petroleum products. Statistics on crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales are presented. Data on crude oil include the domestic purchase price, the free on board and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. Monthly statistics on purchases of crude oils and sales of petroleum products are presented in five sections: (1) summary statistics, (2) crude oil prices, (3) prices of petroleum products, (4) volumes of petroleum products, and (5) prime supplier sales volumes of petroleum products for local consumption. 50 tabs.
Date: April 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Determination of halogens in a petroleum product by ion chromatography

Description: A rapid, high-performance ion chromatography (HPIC) method with isocratic separation and the anion self-regenerating suppressor (in the chemical suppression mode, specifically for the determination of fluoride, chloride, bromide, and iodide in a petroleum product) is discussed. This is a proposed new method for a production laboratory within the Analytical Services Organization at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant.
Date: July 15, 1994
Creator: Tucker, H.L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A test to illustrate the effects of BioSolve on the mobility of contaminated soils

Description: Mountain States BioSolve manufactures products for in-situ bioremediation projects. One of their products, BioSolve, desorbs and emulsifies hydrocarbons in a contaminated substrate. BioSolve is a blend of water-based, biodegradable surfactants which were engineered as a clean-up and mitigation agent for hydrocarbon products. Its basic mechanism is to emulsify the hydrocarbon into small encapsulated particles in a water/oxygen-bearing solution, desorbing hydrocarbon molecules from soil particles. This allows bacteria to more effectively metabolize the contaminate. During desorption, Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) levels may increase shortly after application due to the removal of contaminate from soil particles which increases the total recoverable hydrocarbon. This allows the hydrocarbon, in the pump and treat process, to become mobile, and thus carried with the water to the recovery wells where it can be removed. This testing does not address pump and treat technology but only the increased surface area for bioremediation enhancement.
Date: May 27, 1999
Creator: Jackson, Lorri M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

ALCOHOL FLUSHING FOR REMOVING DNAPL'S FROM CLAY AND SAND LAYERED AQUIFER SYSTEMS

Description: Alcohol flushing, also called cosolvent flushing, is a relatively new in-situ remediation technology that shows promise for removing organic solvents from the soil and groundwater. Soil and groundwater contamination from organic solvents and petroleum products is one of the most serious and widespread environmental problems of our time. Most of the DOE facilities and inactive sites are experiencing soil and groundwater contamination from organic solvents. These water immiscible solvents have entered the subsurface from leaking underground storage tanks and piping, and from past waste handling and disposal practices such as leaking lagoons, holding ponds and landfills. In many cases, they have traveled hundreds of feet down into the saturated zone. If left in the soil, these chemicals may pose a significant environmental and human health risk. Alcohol flushing has potential for application to spilled solvents located deep within the saturated zone which are difficult if not impossible to remove by current remediation strategies, thus, greatly expediting restoration time, reducing total remediation cost and reducing risk.
Date: August 1, 1999
Creator: Hayden, N.J.; Padgett, P.; Farrell, C.; Diebold, J.; Zhou, X. & Hood, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Petroleum marketing monthly with data for April 1997

Description: This publication provides information and statistical data on a variety of crude oil costs and refined petroleum products sales. Data on crude oil include the domestic first purchase price, the free on board price and landed cost of imported crude oil, and the refiners` acquisition cost of crude oil. Refined petroleum product sales data include motor gasoline, distillates, residuals, aviation fuels, kerosene, and propane. The data provided are compiled from six Energy Information Administration survey forms. 50 tabs.
Date: July 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department