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Hybrid Processing of Measurable and Subjective Data

Description: Conventional systems surety analysis is basically restricted to measurable or physical-model-derived data. However, most analyses, including high-consequence system surety analysis, must also utilize subjective information. In order to address this need, there has been considerable effort on analytically incorporating engineering judgment. For example, Dempster-Shafer theory establishes a framework in which frequentist probability and Bayesian incorporation of new data are subsets. Although Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer methodology both allow judgment, neither derives results that can indicate the relative amounts of subjective judgment and measurable data in the results. The methodology described in this report addresses these problems through a hybrid-mathematics-based process that allows tracking of the degree of subjective information in the output, thereby providing more informative (as well as more appropriate) results. In addition, most high consequence systems offer difficult-to-analyze situations. For example, in the Sandia National Laboratories nuclear weapons program, the probability that a weapon responds safely when exposed to an abnormal environment (e.g., lightning, crush, metal-melting temperatures) must be assured to meet a specific requirement. There are also non-probabilistic DOE and DoD requirements (e.g., for determining the adequacy of positive measures). The type of processing required for these and similar situations transcends conventional probabilistic and human factors methodology. The results described herein address these situations by efficiently utilizing subjective and objective information in a hybrid mathematical structure in order to directly apply to the surety assessment of high consequence systems. The results can also improve the quality of the information currently provided to decision-makers. To this end, objective inputs are processed in a conventional manner; while subjective inputs are derived from the combined engineering judgment of experts in the appropriate disciplines. In addition to providing output constituents (including portrayal of uncertainty) corresponding to combination of these input types, their individual contributions to the resultant uncertainty are determined and provided ...
Date: October 1, 2001
Creator: COOPER, J. ARLIN & ROGINSKI, ROBERT J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Detection of Special Operations Forces Using Night Vision Devices

Description: Night vision devices, such image intensifiers and infrared imagers, are readily available to a host of nations, organizations, and individuals through international commerce. Once the trademark of special operations units, these devices are widely advertised to ''turn night into day''. In truth, they cannot accomplish this formidable task, but they do offer impressive enhancement of vision in limited light scenarios through electronically generated images. Image intensifiers and infrared imagers are both electronic devices for enhancing vision in the dark. However, each is based upon a totally different physical phenomenon. Image intensifiers amplify the available light energy whereas infrared imagers detect the thermal energy radiated from all objects. Because of this, each device operates from energy which is present in a different portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. This leads to differences in the ability of each device to detect and/or identify objects. This report is a compilation of the available information on both state-of-the-art image intensifiers and infrared imagers. Image intensifiers developed in the United States, as well as some foreign made image intensifiers, are discussed. Image intensifiers are categorized according to their spectral response and sensitivity using the nomenclature of GEN I, GEN II, and GEN III. As the first generation of image intensifiers, GEN I, were large and of limited performance, this report will deal with only GEN II and GEN III equipment. Infrared imagers are generally categorized according to their spectral response, sensor materials, and related sensor operating temperature using the nomenclature Medium Wavelength Infrared (MWIR) Cooled and Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) Uncooled. MWIR Cooled refers to infrared imagers which operate in the 3 to 5 {micro}m wavelength electromagnetic spectral region and require either mechanical or thermoelectric coolers to keep the sensors operating at 77 K. LWIR Uncooled refers to infrared imagers which operate in the 8 to ...
Date: October 22, 2001
Creator: Smith, C.M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Physical Infrastructure: Crosscutting Issues Planning Conference Report

Description: A staff study issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The nation's physical infrastructure consists of a broad array of systems and facilities, including transportation networks, such as roads, airports, rail, and mass transit; housing; federal buildings including postal facilities; and telecommunications services. In the 21st century, the following trends are likely to influence the nation's need for interconnected infrastructure systems and services: (1) the total population of the United States is expected to increase by nearly 50 million people, or about 17 percent; (2) the number of Americans aged 55 and over is expected to increase by about 60 percent; and (3) the suburbanization of population and employment will continue. The steps that the nation takes to anticipate these trends in infrastructure policy and investments will have a direct effect on America's economy and quality of life. To better understand these connections, GAO sponsored a conference in June 2001 to consider infrastructure issues from a crosscutting perspective. This report discusses the findings and conclusions of that conference."
Date: October 1, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

VA and Defense Health Care: Progress and Challenges DOD Faces in Executing a Military Medical Surveillance System

Description: A statement of record issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The Departments of Defense (DOD) and Veterans Affairs (VA) are establishing a medical surveillance system for the health care needs of military personnel and veterans. The system will collect and analyze information on deployments, environmental health threats, disease monitoring, medical assessments, and medical encounters. GAO has identified weaknesses in DOD's medical surveillance capability and performance during the Gulf War and Operation Joint Endeavor. Investigations into the unexplained illnesses of Gulf War veterans uncovered many deficiencies in DOD's ability to collect, maintain, and transfer accurate data on the movement of troops, potential exposures to health risks, and medical incidents during deployment. DOD has several initiatives under way to improve the reliability of deployment information and to enhance its information technology capabilities, though some initiatives are several years away from full implementation. The VA's ability to serve veterans and provide backup to DOD in times of war will be enhanced as DOD increases its medical surveillance capability."
Date: October 16, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Defense Logistics: Actions Needed to Overcome Capability Gaps in the Public Depot System

Description: A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The Department of Defense's (DOD) policy and practices for developing core depot maintenance capabilities are creating gaps between actual capabilities and those needed for future national defense emergencies and contingencies. If the existing policy is not clarified and current practices continue, the military depots will not have the equipment, facilities, and trained personnel to provide logistics support on many of the weapon systems and related equipment for military use in the next five to 15 years. Although DOD intends for its depots to have these capabilities, actual practices are much different. Core policy does not adequately take into consideration future systems repair needs and the impact of retiring systems on developing capabilities. Furthermore, the practices of individual services hinder the establishment of future core capabilities and management oversight. Additional investments in new facilities, equipment, and workforce training and revitalization have been limited for some time. Finally, there is no strategic plan and associated service implementation plans to create and sustain a viable depot maintenance capability."
Date: October 12, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Defense Health Care: Disability Programs Need Improvement and Face Challenges

Description: A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The military's health program--TRICARE--provides medical care to about 8.3 million active duty service members and retired beneficiaries and their dependents and survivors. The Department of Defense (DOD) also provides benefits for persons severely disabled by physical or mental problems through its Individual Case Management Program for Persons with Extraordinary Conditions (ICMP-PEC) and for less severely disabled active duty dependents through its Program for Persons with Disabilities (PFPWD). Recently, military families and advocacy groups have raised concerns about accessing ICMP-PEC benefits. Also, the DOD Authorization Act for 2001 entitled military retirees age 65 and older and their dependents and survivors to TRICARE benefits for life which may have caseload and cost effects on ICMP-PEC. As of June 2001, 38 ICMP-PEC participants were projected to receive $6 million in services in fiscal year 2001, Their annual per-case costs were projected to range from $13,000 to $382,000. ICMP-PEC now lacks a clear purpose, well-defined eligibility criteria and benefits, and an efficient application process. In contrast, PFPWD is an established program with well defined criteria and benefits that assist thousands of ADFMs with their special health care service and equipment needs. Also, before April 2001, PFPWD provided many services and equipment at modest cost to ADFMs with severe disabilities that were also available at higher copayments to less seriously disabled ADFMS under TRICARE Basics. Data are unavailable on how many PFPWD participants are affected by the program's $1,000 monthly benefit limit. A comparison of ICMP-PEC's home care benefit of up to 24 hours of skilled nursing care per day, seven days per week-and unlimited skilled nursing facility coverage with Medicare and selected Medicaid programs showed that ICMP-PEC's benefits are more generous."
Date: October 12, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Joint Strike Fighter Acquisition: Mature Critical Technologies Needed to Reduce Risks

Description: A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The Joint Strike Fighter Program (JSFP), the military's most expensive aircraft program, is intended to produce affordable, next-generation aircraft to replace aging aircraft in military inventories. Although JSFP has made good progress in some technology areas, the program may not meet its affordability objective because critical technologies are not projected to be matured to levels GAO believes would indicate a low risk program at the planned start of engineering and manufacturing development in October 2001."
Date: October 19, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Chemical and Biological Defense: DOD Needs to Clarify Expectations in Medical Readiness

Description: A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "Public assessments by Department of Defense (DOD) officials have emphasized the seriousness of the military threat from chemical and biological (CB) weapons. However, neither DOD nor the services have systematically examined the adequacy of the current specialty mix of medical personnel for CB defense. Although some of the services have begun to review the adequacy of staffing of deployable medical units that would manage the consequences of chemical warfare scenarios, they have not done so for biological warfare scenarios. Joint protocols for treating CB casualties have recently been completed, but the services have not yet agreed on which health care providers should provide treatment. Relatively few military health care providers are trained to a standard of proficiency in providing care to CB casualties. The service surgeons general have begun integrating chemical and a few biological scenarios into their medical exercises, but no realistic field exercise of medical support for CB warfare had been concluded. DOD and the services have not fully addressed weaknesses and gaps in modeling, planning, training, tracking, or proficiency testing for the treatment of CB casualties. The resulting medical structure has not been rigorously tested for its capacity to deliver the required medical support. As a result, medical readiness for CB scenarios cannot be ensured."
Date: October 19, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Defense Logistics: Strategic Planning Weaknesses Leave Economy, Efficiency, and Effectiveness of Future Support Systems at Risk

Description: A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The Department of Defense's (DOD) Logistics Strategic Plan is not comprehensive enough and does not provide an adequate overall logistics strategy to effectively guide the defense components' logistics plans. The military services, the Defense Logistics Agency, and the U.S. Transportation Command each developed separate logistics transformation and other implementation plans to support the Department-wide Logistics Strategic Plan. However, these plans also have weaknesses and are not likely to improve the overall economy, efficiency, and effectiveness of logistics activities."
Date: October 11, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

User Fees: DOD Fees for Providing Information Not Current and Consistent

Description: A letter report issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "The National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 authorized the military archives to (1) charge fees to persons requesting information and (2) retain collected fees to help defray costs of providing the information. Although none of the archives has yet implemented a fee, one archive plans to do so by October 2001. The Department of Defense's (DOD) archives and other offices are also authorized under both the User Charge Statute and the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) to charge for information provided to the public. However, neither of these statutes authorizes an agency to retain those fees. The four designated archives are charging fees to public requesters but are not using the fee schedule mandated by the DOD regulation implementing the User Charge Statute. Similarly, DOD's fee schedules for charges under FOIA are outdated. DOD's inconsistent use of the authority to charge fees and the use of outdated DOD fees schedules result in uncollected fees of a million dollars or more annually and inconsistent handling of public requests for historical information."
Date: October 12, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Bioterrorism: Coordination and Preparedness

Description: Testimony issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "This testimony discusses on the efforts of federal agencies to prepare for the consequences of a bioterrorist attack. GAO found that federal agencies are participating in research and preparedness activities, from improving the detection of biological agents to developing a national stockpile of pharmaceuticals to treat victims of disasters. Federal agencies also have several efforts underway to coordinate these activities on a formal and informal basis, such as interagency work groups. Despite these efforts however, coordination between agencies remains fragmented. GAO also found emerging concerns about the preparedness of state and local jurisdictions, including insufficient state and local planning for response to terrorist events, inadequate public health infrastructure, a lack of hospital participation in training on terrorism and emergency response planning, insufficient capabilities for treating mass casualties, and the timely availability of medical teams and resources in an emergency. This testimony summarizes a September 2001 report (GAO-01-915)."
Date: October 5, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Bioterrorism: Public Health and Medical Preparedness

Description: Testimony issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "Federal research and preparedness activities related to bioterrorism center on detecting of such agents; developing new or improved vaccines, antibiotics, and antivirals; and developing performance standards for emergency response equipment. Preparedness activities include: (1) increasing federal, state, and local response capabilities; (2) developing response teams; (3) increasing the availability of medical treatments; (4) participating in and sponsoring exercises; (5) aiding victims; and (6) providing support at special events, such as presidential inaugurations and Olympic games. To coordinate their activities, federal agencies are developing interagency response plans, participating in various interagency work groups, and entering into formal agreements with each other to share resources and capabilities. However, GAO found that coordination of federal terrorism research, preparedness, and response programs is fragmented, raising concerns about the ability of states and localities to respond to a bioterrorist attack. These concerns include poor state and local planning and the lack of hospital participation in training on terrorism and emergency response planning. This report summarized a September 2001 report (GAO-01-915)."
Date: October 9, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Bioterrorism: Review of Public Health Preparedness Programs

Description: Testimony issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "Federal research and preparedness activities related to bioterrorism center on detecting of such agents; developing new or improved vaccines, antibiotics, and antivirals; and developing performance standards for emergency response equipment. Preparedness activities include: (1) increasing federal, state, and local response capabilities; (2) developing response teams; (3) increasing the availability of medical treatments; (4) participating in and sponsoring exercises; (5) aiding victims; and (6) providing support at special events, such as presidential inaugurations and Olympic games. To coordinate their activities, federal agencies are developing interagency response plans, participating in various interagency work groups, and entering into formal agreements with each other to share resources and capabilities. However, GAO found that coordination of federal terrorism research, preparedness, and response programs is fragmented, raising concerns about the ability of states and localities to respond to a bioterrorist attack. These concerns include poor state and local planning and the lack of hospital participation in training on terrorism and emergency response planning. This report summarized a September 2001 report (GAO-01-915)."
Date: October 10, 2001
Creator: United States. General Accounting Office.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Proceedings of the 23rd Seismic Research Symposium: Worldwide Monitoring of Nuclear Explosions

Description: These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 23rd Seismic Research Review: Worldwide Monitoring of Nuclear Explosions, held 2-5 October, 2001 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC), the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.
Date: October 2, 2001
Creator: Warren, N. Jill & Chavez, Francesca C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department