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Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This report serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1)). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Date: February 1, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1997 (AEO 97). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1997 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Date: February 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

Description: This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C. & Richey, R.C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

Description: The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E{sup 3}) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term ({approximately}2,100) context. The E{sup 3} model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E{sup 3} area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E{sup 3} model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E{sup 3} model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E{sup 3} study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E{sup 3} model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project.
Date: July 8, 1999
Creator: Krakowski, R.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents objectives and conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 (AEO96). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s three submodules: Coal Production Submodule, Coal Export Submodule, and Coal Distribution Submodule.
Date: April 30, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model developer`s appendix to the model documentation report: NEMS macroeconomic activity module

Description: The NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) tested here was used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94). MAM is a response surface model, not a structural model, composed of three submodules: the National Submodule, the Interindustry Submodule, and the Regional Submodule. Contents of this report are as follows: properties of the mathematical solution; NEMS MAM empirical basis; and scenario analysis. Scenario analysis covers: expectations for scenario analysis; historical world oil price scenario; AEO94 high world oil price scenario; AEO94 low world oil price scenario; and immediate increase world oil price scenario.
Date: July 15, 1994
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Summary of innovative concepts for industrial process improvement: An experimental technology exchange

Description: This document is a compilation of one-page technical briefs that summarize the highlights of thirty-eight innovations that were presented at the seventh Innovative Concepts Fair, held in Denver, Colorado on April 20--21, 1995. Sixteen of the innovations were funded through the Innovative Concepts Program, and twenty-two innovations represent other state or federally funded programs. The concepts in this year`s fair addressed innovations that can substantially improve industrial processes. Each tech brief describes the need for the proposed concept; the concept being proposed; and the concept`s economics and market potential, key experimental results, and future development needs. A contact block is also included with each flier.
Date: August 1, 1995
Creator: Conger, R. L.; Lee, V. E. & Buel, L. M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

Description: The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specific section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential back to the underlying strategies and combination of efficiency and abatement policy ...
Date: September 1, 2010
Creator: Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Models for evaluation of energy technology and policy options to maximize low carbon source penetration in the United States energy supply.

Description: An initial version of a Systems Dynamics (SD) modeling framework was developed for the analysis of a broad range of energy technology and policy questions. The specific question selected to demonstrate this process was 'what would be the carbon and import implications of expanding nuclear electric capacity to provide power for plug in hybrid vehicles?' Fifteen SNL SD energy models were reviewed and the US Energy and Greenhouse gas model (USEGM) and the Global Nuclear Futures model (GEFM) were identified as the basis for an initial modeling framework. A basic U.S. Transportation model was created to model U.S. fleet changes. The results of the rapid adoption scenario result in almost 40% of light duty vehicles being PHEV by 2040 which requires about 37 GWy/y of additional electricity demand, equivalent to about 25 new 1.4 GWe nuclear plants. The adoption rate of PHEVs would likely be the controlling factor in achieving the associated reduction in carbon emissions and imports.
Date: December 1, 2009
Creator: Pickard, Paul S.; Kataoka, Dawn; Reno, Marissa Devan; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Peplinski, William J.; Roach, Jesse D. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy Implications of Economizer Use in California Data Centers

Description: In the US, data center operations currently account for about 61 billion kWh/y of electricity consumption, which is more than 1.5percent of total demand. Data center energy consumption is rising rapidly, having doubled in the last five years. A substantial portion of data-center energy use is dedicated to removing the heat generated by the computer equipment. Data-center cooling load might be met with substantially reduced energy consumption with the use of air-side economizers. This energy saving measure, however, has been shown to expose servers to an order-of-magnitude increase in indoor particle concentrations with an unquantified increase in the risk of equipment failure. An alternative energy saving option is the use of water-side economizers, which do not affect the indoor particle concentration but require additional mechanical equipment and tend to be less beneficial in high humidity areas. Published research has only presented qualitative benefits of economizer use, providing industry with inadequate information on which to base their design decisions. Energy savings depend on local climate and the specific building-design characteristics. In this paper, based on building energy models, we report energy savings for air-side and water-side economizer use in data centers in several climate zones in California. Results show that in terms of energy savings, air-side economizers consistently outperform water-side economizers, though the performance difference varies by location. Model results also show that conventional humidity restrictions must by relaxed or removed to gain the energy benefits of air-side economizers.
Date: August 1, 2008
Creator: Shehabi, Arman; Ganguly, Srirupa; Traber, Kim; Price, Hillary; Horvath, Arpad; Nazaroff, William W. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Taking out 1 billion tons of CO2: The magic of China's 11th Five-Year Plan?

Description: China's 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) sets an ambitious target for energy-efficiency improvement: energy intensity of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) should be reduced by 20% from 2005 to 2010 (NDRC, 2006). This is the first time that a quantitative and binding target has been set for energy efficiency, and signals a major shift in China's strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energy development. The 20% energy intensity target also translates into an annual reduction of over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 by 2010, making the Chinese effort one of most significant carbon mitigation effort in the world today. While it is still too early to tell whether China will achieve this target, this paper attempts to understand the trend in energy intensity in China and to explore a variety of options toward meeting the 20% target using a detailed end-use energy model.
Date: July 1, 2007
Creator: Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang; Zhou, Nan; Levine, Mark & Fridley, David
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy supply and environmental issues: The Los Alamos National Laboratory experience in regional and international programs

Description: The Los Alamos National Laboratory, operated by the University of California, encompasses more than forty-three square miles of mesas and canyons in northern New Mexico. A Department of Energy national laboratory, Los Alamos is one of the largest multidisciplinary, multiprogram laboratories in the world. Our mission, to apply science and engineering capabilities to problems of national security, has expanded to include a broad array of programs. We conduct extensive research in energy, nuclear safeguards and security, biomedical science, computational science, environmental protection and cleanup, materials science, and other basic sciences. The Energy Technology Programs Office is responsible for overseeing and developing programs in three strategic areas: energy systems and the environment, transportation and infrastructure, and integrated chemicals and materials processing. Our programs focus on developing reliable, economic and environmentally sound technologies that can help ensure an adequate supply of energy for the nation. To meet these needs, we are involved in programs that range from new and enhanced oil recovery technologies and tapping renewable energy sources, through efforts in industrial processes, electric power systems, clean coal technologies, civilian radioactive waste, high temperature superconductivity, to studying the environmental effects of energy use.
Date: December 31, 1995
Creator: Goff, S.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Global economics/energy/environmental (E{sup 3}) modeling of long-term nuclear energy futures

Description: A global energy, economics, environment (E{sup 3}) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Using this model, consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed. A spectrum of future is examined at two levels in a hierarchy of scenario attributes in which drivers are either external or internal to nuclear energy. Impacts of a range of nuclear fuel-cycle scenarios are reflected back to the higher-level scenario attributes. An emphasis is placed on nuclear materials inventories (in magnitude, location, and form) and their contribution to the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy and the future competitiveness of both conventional and advanced nuclear reactors.
Date: September 1, 1997
Creator: Krakowski, R.A.; Davidson, J.W.; Bathke, C.G.; Arthur, E.D. & Wagner, R.L. Jr.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling the infrastructure dynamics of China -- Water, agriculture, energy, and greenhouse gases

Description: A comprehensive critical infrastructure analysis of the People`s Republic of China was performed to address questions about China`s ability to meet its long-term grain requirements and energy needs and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in China likely to result from increased agricultural production and energy use. Four dynamic computer simulation models of China`s infrastructures--water, agriculture, energy and greenhouse gas--were developed to simulate, respectively, the hydrologic budgetary processes, grain production and consumption, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in China through 2025. The four models were integrated into a state-of-the-art comprehensive critical infrastructure model for all of China. This integrated model simulates diverse flows of commodities, such as water and greenhouse gas, between the separate models to capture the overall dynamics of the integrated system. The model was used to generate projections of China`s available water resources and expected water use for 10 river drainage regions representing 100% of China`s mean annual runoff and comprising 37 major river basins. These projections were used to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in the three end-use sectors--urban, industrial, and agricultural--through the year 2025. Projections of the all-China demand for the three major grains (corn, wheat, and rice), meat, and other (other grains and fruits and vegetables) were also generated. Each geographic region`s share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of each region`s share of historic grain production) was calculated in order to assess the land and water resources in each region required to meet that demand. Growth in energy use in six historically significant sectors and growth in greenhouse gas loading were projected for all of China.
Date: August 1, 1998
Creator: Conrad, S.H.; Drennen, T.E.; Engi, D.; Harris, D.L.; Jeppesen, D.M. & Thomas, R.P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling

Description: Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.
Date: July 29, 2003
Creator: Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan & Boyd, Gale
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Directory of energy information administration models 1995

Description: This updated directory has been published annually; after this issue, it will be published only biennially. The Disruption Impact Simulator Model in use by EIA is included. Model descriptions have been updated according to revised documentation approved during the past year. This directory contains descriptions about each model, including title, acronym, purpose, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. Included are 37 EIA models active as of February 1, 1995. The first group is the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) models. The second group is all other EIA models that are not part of NEMS. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems. Appendix B is a summary of the `Annual Energy Outlook` Forecasting System.
Date: July 13, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Comparative assessment of five long-run energy projections.

Description: This rport compares five major long-term forecasts prepared under similar assumptions by: Professor George Dantzig's PILOT Process Integrated Model/Welfare Equilibrium Model system (PILOT); Professor Alan S. Manne's ETA-MACRO energy-economy model system; The combined Brookhaven National Laboratory/Dale W. Jorgenson Associates (BNL/DJA) energy-economy model system; The FOSSIL2 energy model operated by the Office of Policy and Evaluation in the Department of Energy; The Long-range Energy Analysis Package energy model ARC-78 (LEAP), operated by the Energy Informaion Administration in the Department of Energy. After summarizing the method of preparation of each forecast, the report compares the results in detail and explains the differences both in terms of data assumptions and methodological approach.
Date: December 1, 1979
Creator: Kydes, A.S. & Pearson, J.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume 1. Executive summary

Description: This report is Volume I of a six-volume series documenting the Integrating Model of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) as it existed on January 1, 1978. It offers a review of entire PIES system, including the basic components of the Integrating Model, which are described in detail in Volume IV of this series. In particular, this volume addresses the problem that PIES solves and the major features and applications of PIES.
Date: April 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M.L. & Hutzler, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Constraining chameleon field theories using the GammeV afterglow experiments

Description: The GammeV experiment has constrained the couplings of chameleon scalar fields to matter and photons. Here we present a detailed calculation of the chameleon afterglow rate underlying these constraints. The dependence of GammeV constraints on various assumptions in the calculation is studied. We discuss GammeV-CHASE, a second-generation GammeV experiment, which will improve upon GammeV in several major ways. Using our calculation of the chameleon afterglow rate, we forecast model-independent constraints achievable by GammeV-CHASE. We then apply these constraints to a variety of chameleon models, including quartic chameleons and chameleon dark energy models. The new experiment will be able to probe a large region of parameter space that is beyond the reach of current tests, such as fifth force searches, constraints on the dimming of distant astrophysical objects, and bounds on the variation of the fine structure constant.
Date: November 1, 2009
Creator: Upadhye, A.; Steffen, J. H. & Weltman, A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Adapting Existing Spatial Data Sets to New Uses: An Example from Energy Modeling

Description: Energy modeling and analysis often relies on data collected for other purposes such as census counts, atmospheric and air quality observations, and economic projections. These data are available at various spatial and temporal scales, which may be different from those needed by the energy modeling community. If the translation from the original format to the format required by the energy researcher is incorrect, then resulting models can produce misleading conclusions. This is of increasing importance, because of the fine resolution data required by models for new alternative energy sources such as wind and distributed generation. This paper addresses the matter by applying spatial statistical techniques which improve the usefulness of spatial data sets (maps) that do not initially meet the spatial and/or temporal requirements of energy models. In particular, we focus on (1) aggregation and disaggregation of spatial data, (2) imputing missing data and (3) merging spatial data sets.
Date: June 23, 2006
Creator: Johanesson, G; Stewart, J S; Barr, C; Sabeff, L B; George, R; Heimiller, D et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A Possible Solution to the Smallness Problem of Dark Energy

Description: The smallness of the dark energy density has been recognized as the most crucial difficulty in understanding dark energy and also one of the most important questions in the new century. In a recent paper[1], we proposed a new dark energy model in which the smallness of the cosmological constant is naturally achieved by invoking the Casimir energy in a supersymmetry-breaking brane-world. In this paper we review the basic notions of this model. Various implications, perspectives, and subtleties of this model are briefly discussed.
Date: July 8, 2005
Creator: Chen, Pisin; /SLAC; Gu, Je-An & /Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions

Description: The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.
Date: February 1, 2007
Creator: Greene, David L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

Description: While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.
Date: August 1, 2007
Creator: Zhou, Nan & Lin, Jiang
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Benchmarking and Equipment and Controls Assessment for a 'Big Box' Retail Chain

Description: The paper describes work to enable improved energy performance of existing and new retail stores belonging to a national chain and thereby also identify measures and tools that would improve the performance of 'big box' stores generally. A detailed energy simulation model of a standard store design was developed and used to: (1) demonstrate the benefits of benchmarking the energy performance of retail stores of relatively standard design using baselines derived from simulation, (2) identify cost-effective improvements in the efficiency of components to be incorporated in the next design cycle, and (3) use simulation to identify potential control strategy improvements that could be adopted in all stores, improving operational efficiency. The core enabling task of the project was to develop an energy model of the current standard design using the EnergyPlus simulation program. For the purpose of verification of the model against actual utility bills, the model was reconfigured to represent twelve existing stores (seven relatively new stores and five older stores) in different US climates and simulations were performed using weather data obtained from the National Weather Service. The results of this exercise, which showed generally good agreement between predicted and measured total energy use, suggest that dynamic benchmarking based on energy simulation would be an effective tool for identifying operational problems that affect whole building energy use. The models of the seven newer stores were then configured with manufacturers performance data for the equipment specified in the current design and used to assess the energy and cost benefits of increasing the efficiency of selected HVAC, lighting and envelope components. The greatest potential for cost-effective energy savings appears to be a substantial increase in the efficiency of the blowers in the roof top units and improvements in the efficiency of the lighting. The energy benefits of economizers on the ...
Date: June 11, 2008
Creator: Haves, Philip; Coffey, Brian & Williams, Scott
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department