Do Predictions of Professional Business Economists Conform to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis?: Tests on a Set of Survey Data
Description:
A set of forecast survey data is analyzed in this paper for properties consistent with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. Standard statistical tests for "rational expectations" are employed utilizing consensus forecasts generated by an interest rate newsletter. Four selected variables (Fed Funds rate, M1 rate of growth, rate of change in CPI, and real GNP growth rate) are analyzed over multiple time horizons. Results tend to reject "rational expectations" for most variables and time horizons…
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Date:
August 1989
Creator:
Dabbs, Russell Edward
Partner:
UNT Libraries