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Neighborhood Effects on Food Consumption

Description: This article examines the dual role of the social and physical neighborhood environment as they relate to the eating behaviors of residents of a low-income minority urban neighborhood.
Date: December 10, 2013
Creator: Leonard, Tammy; McKillop, Caitlin; Carson, Jo Ann & Shuval, Kerem
Partner: UNT College of Arts and Sciences

A Regional Approach to Market Monitoring in the West

Description: Market monitoring involves the systematic analysis of pricesand behavior in wholesale power markets to determine when and whetherpotentially anti-competitive behavior is occurring. Regional TransmissionOrganizations (RTOs) typically have a market monitoring function. Becausethe West does not have active RTOs outside of California, it does nothave the market monitoring that RTOs have. In addition, because the Westoutside of California does not have RTOs that perform centralized unitcommitment and dispatch, the rich data that are typically available tomarket monitors in RTO markets are not available in the West outside ofCalifornia. This paper examines the feasibility of market monitoring inthe West outside of California given readily available data. We developsimple econometric models of wholesale power prices in the West thatmight be used for market monitoring. In addition, we examine whetherproduction cost simulations that have been developed for long-runplanning might be useful for market monitoring. We find that simpleeconometric models go a long ways towards explaining wholesale powerprices in the West and might be used to identify potentially anomalousprices. In contrast, we find that the simulated prices from a specificset of production cost simulations exhibit characteristics that aresufficiently different from observed prices that we question theirusefulness for explaining price formation in the West and hence theirusefulness as a market monitoring tool.
Date: October 1, 2006
Creator: Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan & Goldman, Charles
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1997 (AEO 97). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1997 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Date: February 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Regional growth and energy supply: Is there an energy security issue?

Description: This study examines how the growth of the developing world might affect energy markets in the future. Based on recent growth trends, world energy demand could reasonably be expected to grow from about 350 Exajoules (EJ: 1.0E18=0.95 Quad) to nearly 1025 EJ by the year 2020, nearly 3x current consumption estimates. Introduction of more energy-efficient technologies could reduce this growth by about 17% to 830 EJ. But one cannot rely exclusively on current trends to forecast future energy demand. The growth of the developing world will interact with supply to affect prices, which in turn will mitigate the growth of demand, and growth rates of energy use will be much more modes. Under the Business as Usual scenario, energy demand will grow to 835 EJ by 2020, and this could be reduced a further 15% to 714 EJ through the adoption of more energy efficient technologies. Fuel prices based on model results are analyzed. Energy security implications of rapid growth in the developing world are considered and found to be of likely little significance.
Date: December 1, 1996
Creator: Roop, J.M.; Freund, K.A.; Godoy-Kain, P.; Gu, A.Y.; Johnson, A.K.; Paananen, O.H. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Short-term energy outlook, Annual supplement 1995

Description: This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of non-transportation energy demand by sector. The empirical analysis involves the short-run energy demand in the residential, commercial, industrial, and electrical utility sectors in US.
Date: July 25, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Research methods to develop Measures of Effectiveness of the United States Coast Guard`s Vessel Inspection and Boarding Program. Volume 2, Main report

Description: The primary objective of this study is to provide Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) of the US Coast Guard Marine Inspection and Boarding Program based on objective scientific methods. A secondary objective of the study is to provide USCG management with a methodologically and theoretically sound aid to effective policy decision-making. The MOEs constructed in this study are specific to the Marine Inspection and Boarding Program, but the methodology of the study is based on sound theoretical principles that are probably applicable to a range of USCG activities. Hence the methodology applied equally to other important USCG programs and can be similarly used to measure their effectiveness and as an aid to decision-making.
Date: April 1, 1995
Creator: Wheeler, T.; Cox, R.; Gawande, K.; Stone, R.; Waisel, L. & Wallace, W.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

Description: A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.
Date: June 8, 2010
Creator: Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A. & Eto, Joseph H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department


Description: This paper revises and extends EPRI report EA-3409, ''Household Appliance Choice: Revision of REEPS Behavioral Models.'' That paper reported the results of an econometric study of major appliance choice in new residential construction. Errors appeared in two tables of that report. We offer revised versions of those tables, and a brief analysis of the consequences and significance of the errors. The present paper also proposes several possible extensions and re-specifications of the models examined by EPRI. Some of these are judged to be highly successful; they both satisfy economic intuition more completely than the original specification and produce a better quality fit to the dependent variable. We feel that inclusion of these modifications produces a more useful set of coefficients for economic modeling than the original specification. This paper focuses on EPRI's models of residential space heating technology choice. That choice was modeled as a nested logit structure, with consumers choosing whether to have central air conditioning or not, and, given that choice, what kind of space heating system to have. The model included five space heating alternatives with central cooling (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; heat pumps; and electric baseboard) and eight alternatives without it (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; gas and oil boilers and non-central systems; and electric baseboard heat). The structure of the nested logit model is shown in Figure 1.
Date: May 1, 1989
Creator: Wood, D.J.; Ruderman, H. & McMahon, J. E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

An Econometric Analysis of the Elasticity of Vehicle Travel with Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile Using RTEC Survey Data

Description: This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.
Date: March 1, 1999
Creator: Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J. & Gibson, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Empirical support for global integrated assessment modeling: Productivity trends and technological change in developing countries' agriculture and electric power sectors

Description: Integrated assessment (IA) modeling of climate policy is increasingly global in nature, with models incorporating regional disaggregation. The existing empirical basis for IA modeling, however, largely arises from research on industrialized economies. Given the growing importance of developing countries in determining long-term global energy and carbon emissions trends, filling this gap with improved statistical information on developing countries' energy and carbon-emissions characteristics is an important priority for enhancing IA modeling. Earlier research at LBNL on this topic has focused on assembling and analyzing statistical data on productivity trends and technological change in the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors of five developing countries, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea. The proposed work will extend this analysis to the agriculture and electric power sectors in India, South Korea, and two other developing countries. They will also examine the impact of alternative model specifications on estimates of productivity growth and technological change for each of the three sectors, and estimate the contribution of various capital inputs--imported vs. indigenous, rigid vs. malleable-- in contributing to productivity growth and technological change. The project has already produced a data resource on the manufacturing sector which is being shared with IA modelers. This will be extended to the agriculture and electric power sectors, which would also be made accessible to IA modeling groups seeking to enhance the empirical descriptions of developing country characteristics. The project will entail basic statistical and econometric analysis of productivity and energy trends in these developing country sectors, with parameter estimates also made available to modeling groups. The parameter estimates will be developed using alternative model specifications that could be directly utilized by the existing IAMs for the manufacturing, agriculture, and electric power sectors.
Date: April 1, 2000
Creator: Sathaye, Jayant A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

Description: The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal from Kyoto and the administration's announcement of ...
Date: April 18, 2006
Creator: Wing, Ian Sue
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Tax revenue and innovations in natural gas supply: New Mexico

Description: This paper develops an econometric model of natural gas supply at the state-level using New Mexico as a case study. The supply model is estimated using annual time series observations on production levels, delivered prices, proved reserves, existing wells, and extraction costs. The authors validate the model against historical data and then use it to consider the fiscal impacts on state tax revenue from innovations in extraction technologies.
Date: October 1, 1994
Creator: Ulibarri, C. A. & Marsh, T. L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

Description: Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.
Date: January 1, 2001
Creator: Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J. & Stavins, Robert N.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

User`s guide to the META-Net economic modeling system. Version 1.2

Description: In a market economy demands for commodities are met through various technologies and resources. Markets select the technologies and resources to meet these demands based on their costs. Over time, the competitiveness of different technologies can change due to the exhaustion of resources they depend on, the introduction of newer, more efficient technologies, or even shifts in user demands. As this happens, the structure of the economy changes. The Market Equilibrium and Technology Assessment Network Modelling System, META{center_dot}Net, has been developed for building and solving multi-period equilibrium models to analyze the shifts in the energy system that may occur as new technologies are introduced and resources are exhausted. META{center_dot}Net allows a user to build and solve complex economic models. It models` a market economy as a network of nodes representing resources, conversion processes, markets, and end-use demands. Commodities flow through this network from resources, through conversion processes and market, to the end-users. META{center_dot}Net then finds the multiperiod equilibrium prices and quantities. The solution includes the prices and quantities demanded for each commodity along with the capacity additions (and retirements) for each conversion process, and the trajectories of resource extraction. Although the changes in the economy are largely driven by consumers` behavior and the costs of technologies and resources, they are also affected by various government policies. These can include constraints on prices and quantities, and various taxes and constraints on environmental emissions. META{center_dot}Net can incorporate many of these mechanisms and evaluate their potential impact on the development of the economic system.
Date: November 24, 1994
Creator: Lamont, A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Krylov subspace methods for solving large unsymmetric linear systems

Description: Some algorithms based upon a projection process onto the Krylov subspace K/sub m/ = Span(r/sub 0/, Ar/sub 0/,..., A/sup m-1/r/sub 0/) are developed, generalizing the method of conjugate gradients to unsymmetric systems. These methods are extensions of Arnoldi's algorithm for solving eigenvalue problems. The convergence is analyzed in terms of the distance of the solution to the subspace K/sub m/ and some error bounds are established showing in particular a similarity with the conjugate gradient method (for symmetric matrices) when the eigenvalues are real. Several numerical experiments are described and discussed.
Date: January 1, 1981
Creator: Saad, Y.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Parametric integer linear programming: a synthesis of branch and bound with cutting planes

Description: A branch and bound algorithm is designed to solve the general integer linear programing problem with parametric right-hand sides. The right-hand sides have the form b + THETA d, where b and d are conformable vectors, d consists of nonegative constants, and THETA varies from zero to one. The method consists of first determining all possible right-hand side ineger constants and appending this set of integer constants to the initial tableau to form an expanded problem with a finite number of family members. The implicit enumeration method gives a lower bound on the integer solutions. The branch and bound method is used with fathoming tests that allow one family member possibly to fathom other family members. A cutting plane option applies a finite number of cuts to each node before branching. In addition, the cutting plane method is invoked whenever some members are feasible at a node and others are infeasible. The branching and cutting process is repeated until the entire family of problems has been solved. 3 tables.
Date: January 1, 1980
Creator: Rountree, S.L.K. & Gillett, B.E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Growth in Biofuels Markets: Long Term Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts (Final Report)

Description: Over the last several years increasing energy and petroleum prices have propelled biofuels and the feedstocks used to produce them, to the forefront of alternative energy production. This growth has increased the linkages between energy and agricultural markets and these changes around the world are having a significant effect on agricultural markets as biofuels begin to play a more substantial role in meeting the world's energy needs. Biofuels are alternatively seen as a means to reduce carbon emissions, increase energy independence, support rural development and to raise farm income. However, concern has arisen that the new demand for traditional commodities or alternative commodities which compete for land can lead to higher food prices and the environmental effects from expanding crop acreage may result in uncertain changes in carbon emissions as land is converted both in the US and abroad. While a number of studies examine changes in land use and consumption from changes in biofuels policies many lack effective policy representation or complete coverage of land types which may be diverted in to energy feedstock production. Many of these biofuels and renewable energy induced land use changes are likely to occur in developing countries with at-risk consumers and on environmentally sensitive lands. Our research has improved the well known FAPRI-MU modeling system which represents US agricultural markets and policies in great detail and added a new model of land use and commodity markets for major commodity producers, consumers and trade dependent and food insecure countries as well as a rest of the world aggregate. The international modules include traditional annual crop lands and include perennial crop land, pasture land, forest land and other land uses from which land may be drawn in to biofuels or renewable energy feedstock production. Changes in calorie consumption in food insecure countries from changes in ...
Date: December 2, 2010
Creator: Meyer, Seth D. & Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Effects of the R and D tax credit on energy R and D expenditures: an econometric analysis

Description: Objective of the study was to estimate the effects on industrial energy research and development (R and D) expenditures of the R and D Tax Credit component of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Two tasks were performed. The first task was to collect data on industrial R and D expenditures, sales, oil prices, and price deflators. The R and D expenditure data were obtained from the National Science Foundation; other data were collected from Commerce Department and Department of Energy publications. The second task was to perform an econometric analysis of the effects of the tax credit on industrial R and D expenditures. Equations relating: (1) total; and (2) energy-related R and D expenditures to sales, oil prices, and a variable representing the availability of the tax credit were estimated, using data for each of seven manufacturing industries and eleven years. The analysis showed that the tax credit caused real total industrial R and D expenditures to be 9.1% greater than they would have been without the credit, but caused real energy industrial R and D expenditures to be 13.8% less than they would have been without the tax credit.
Date: February 1, 1985
Creator: Moe, R.J.; Kee, J.R.; Lackey, K.C. & Cronin, F.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Development of software for computer assisted model simplification. Final report. [Lagrange multipliers]

Description: The final report of DBS Corporation on the model simplification project is presented. The purpose of the project is to develop computer-assisted model simplification. The contributions of DBS to this project where an initial overall project assessment, contributions to design principles and testing procedures, specific experimental designs, and initial test results. The main contributions of DBS to this project were in the area of LP matrix scaling, and particularly in the potential usefulness of shadow price information for model simplification. An algorithm for obtaining approximate shadow price information was developed and subjected to initial small-scale testing with promising results.
Date: April 25, 1980
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Validation issues: a view from the trenches

Description: Most papers on model evaluation or assessment dealing with verification and validation discuss means and mechanisms by which outside parties can perform peer review to provide verification and establish the validity of models. Little attention is paid to activities performed by the user-modeling team itself to improve the ability of the model to provide information useful in the decision-making process, and to provide confidence that the information is meaningful. This paper presents a number of case histories describing the authors' experience with this type of model improvement activity, called internal validation. They have been convinced that internal validation schemes should be incorporated in the project description and that they be used in part to answer questions of formulation. They further recommend that modelers incorporate sufficient funding in their project plans to carry out this function.
Date: January 1, 1979
Creator: Marcuse, W.; Pilati, D. & Sparrow, T.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department