Description: The acceptance of forestry-based project activities tomitigate greenhouse gases emissions has been subjected to a number ofmethodological questions to be answered, of which the most challengingare baseline establishment and identification of and measuring leakage.Here we pose hypotheses for and quantify leakage of the Scolel Te projectin Chiapas, Mexico. In this project small-scale farmers are implementingforestry, agroforestry, and forest conservation activities, with carbonsequestration as one of the goals. The main leakage monitoring domain isdefined as the area owned by the participating farmers or communitiesoutside the area where the specific project activities take place. Thenull-hypothesis (no leakage) is that non-project land owned by the farmeror community will experience the same carbon stock changes as predictedby the regional baseline, specifically developed for the project. Firstwe assessed the most likely causes and sources of leakage that may occurin the project. From this analysis, one type of leakage seems to beimportant, i.e., activity shifting. Second we estimated the leakage of asample of participating farmers and communities. Actual land use was thencompared with expected land use derived from the baseline. The Plan Vivoof each participant, complemented with readily available tools toidentify the main sources and drivers of leakage are used to developsimple leakage assessment procedures, as demonstrated in this paper.Negative leakage was estimated to be negligible in this study.Incorporating these procedures already in the project planning stage willreduce the uncertainties related to the actual carbon mitigationpotential of any forestry project.
Date: June 1, 2007
Creator: De Jong, B.H.J.; Bazan, E. Esquivel & Quechulpa Montalvo, S.
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