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Perspective on energy

Description: From earliest times, man's cultural and economic development has been associated with his ability to acquire and use energy. This ability has been primarily responsible for the rapid growth in world population during the 20th Century. The world's population is now on a doubling time of less than 40 years, and the momentum of population is expected to carry us to an equilibrium population of 12 to 16 billion. Vast energy inputs will be required to feed, clothe, and house a population three to four times larger than the present one. The question is: will man be able to provide the necessary energy. The answer: yes - if he chooses to do so. But the industrial countries - and especially the United States - hold the key. The exploitation of plentiful low-grade fossil resources and nuclear power by the developed world would relieve the pressure on world oil, and this would allow the LDCs to make use of the less capital intensive energy resources.
Date: January 1, 1980
Creator: Anderson, T.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Sensitivity analysis and a national energy model example

Description: Sensitivity analysis, a study of changes in a model output produced by varying model inputs, is much more than estimating partial derivatives. As a part of model evaluation, it is an exploratory process directed towards finding out how and why a model responds to different values of inputs. When viewed as a data analysis problem, the intent of sensitivity analysis is to make an inference about a model based on a sample of observations generated from the space of input values. The validity of the inferences is tied closely to the laws, or assumptions, relating the observations (data) and the model.
Date: October 1, 1979
Creator: McKay, M.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy in the future: a series of three lectures

Description: Our hypothetical Trustee recognizes that the economic and social pressures directed at finding new sources of abundant low-cost energy are about to become compelling. As a prudent Trustee, he would say the time for action has come. He would urge that the nation's talents, public and private, be released for the development of nuclear furnaces (reactors) capable of furnishing heat for the generation of electricity, for district central heating and for industrial process heating. He would urge that we continue to explore nuclear reactions other than the fission of uranium and thorium. There is hope of domesticating the fusion reaction that makes the hydrogen bomb go. Economical fusion of the hydrogen contained in a cubic mile of sea water would be a source of capital energy equal to all conceivable needs for many hundreds of years. He would be concerned about the vast quantities of metals, some of them already in short supply, that would be required by very large nuclear power programs. He would suggest that we search for these metals by methods yet to be developed, and in novel places, including the sea. Finally, as our ultimate anchor to windward, he would urge the exploration of all ways to obtain income energy from sunlight in more useful forms and at lower costs than now appear possible.
Date: June 1, 1953
Creator: Putnam, P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Light duty vehicle fuel consumption model, 1975-1986

Description: The report summarizes the Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Model developed for the Office of Conservation and Advanced Energy Systems Policy in the Department of Energy. The purpose of the model is to estimate annual passenger auto (PA) and non-passenger auto (NPA) fuel consumption through 1986. The model is intended to: (1) provide information on future estimated petroleum demand for the majority of the US transportation sector; and (2) generate a better understanding of the trends in fuel consumption in light of fuel economy standards issued by the Department of Transportation (DOT) under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA). The model also is designed to provide disaggregated data for PA's and NPA's in order to anayze their relative importance in estimating total fuel consumption and to calculate the proportion of diesel, leaded, and unleaded fuels in total fleet consumption.
Date: April 28, 1978
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Department of Energy entitlements program handbook

Description: The US petroleum resources, the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act of 1973, and the Energy Policy and Conservation Act are discussed briefly. The chapter devoted to the Federal Energy Agency domestic crude oil entitlements program covers: participation in the program, definitions and symbols, initial basic concept, adjustments, the domestic oil supply ratio, cost equalization, entitlement calculations, entitlement transactions, entitlement cost accounting, summary analysis of cost equalization, and averaging crude oil receipts. The chapter devoted to the entitlements program reporting system discusses the refiners' monthly report, the importers' monthly report, naphtha imports into Puerto Rico, entitlement transaction report, and reporting errors and corrections.
Date: January 1, 1977
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume II. Primer

Description: This report provides documentation of the PIES Integrating Model as it existed on January 1, 1978. This primer aids in understanding what PIES optimizes and how it calculates an energy equilibrium. PIES is composed of several models, with the goal of determining supply of, and demand for, energy goods in 1985 and 1990. It must deal with how to model policy actions affecting energy equilibria along with determining an equilibrium (integrating supply and demand). PIES methodology and a sample PIES linear-programming problem (market equilibrium without constraints) are presented. (MCW)
Date: March 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M.L. & Hutzler, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume V. Code documentation

Description: This volume is a description of the Project Independence Evaluation System as a computer system. It is intended for readers wanting a basic understanding of the computer implementation of PIES rather than an understanding of the modeling methodology. It can assist those who wish to run PIES on the EIA computer facility or to use PIES on their own facilities, or to analyze the PIES computer processing. The document contains: an overview of the computer implementation; a description of the data and naming conventions used in PIES; a functional description of PIES data processing; PIES hardware and software requirements; and an operational description of the PIES processing flow. This overview defines the scope of PIES in this report and thus governs the computer system descriptions that follow. It also provides an historical view of the development of PIES.
Date: July 1, 1978
Creator: Shaw, M L; Allen, B J; Lutz, M S; Gale, J E; O'Hara, N E & Wood, R K
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating Model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume III. User's Guide

Description: Volume III of the six-volume series documenting the Integrating Model of PIES provides a potential PIES user with a description of how PIES operates with particular emphasis on the possible variations in assumptions and data that can be made in specifying alternative scenarios. PIES is described as it existed on January 1, 1978. The introductory chapter is followed by Section II, an overview of the structure and components of PIES. Section III discusses each of the PIES components in detail; describes the Demand Model; contains a description of the models, assumptions, and data which provide supply side inputs to the PIES Integrating Model; and concludes with a discussion of those aspects of PIES which extend the scope of the analysis beyond the national energy market. Section IV discusses two reports produced by the PIES Integrating Model: the PIES Integrating Model Report and the Coal Transportation Report. (MCW)
Date: March 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M.L. & Hutzler, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Effects of atmospheric variability on energy utilization and conservation. Progress report

Description: Research progress for the period September 1979 to July 1980 is reported. Research was structured along four major tasks: (1) atmospheric circulation and climate variability; (2) urban mesoclimate; (3) energy demand modelling; and (4) economic implications of weather variability and energy demand: stimulating residential energy conservation through the financial section. (ACR)
Date: July 1, 1980
Creator: Reiter, E.R.; Burns, C.C.; Cochrane, H.; Johnson, G.R.; Leong, H. & Sheaffer, J.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of fuel shares in the residential sector: 1960 to 1995

Description: Historical and future energy use by fuel type in the residential sector of the United States are examined. Of interest is the likely relative demand for fuels as they affect national policy issues such as the potential shortfall of electric generating capacity in the mid to late 1990's and the ability of the residential sector to switch rapdily among fuels in response to fuel shortages, price increases and other factors. Factors affecting the share of a fuel used rather than the aggregate level of energy use are studied. However, the share of a fuel used is not independent of the level of energy consumption. In the analysis, the level of consumption of each fuel is computed as an intermediate result and is reported for completeness.
Date: August 1, 1986
Creator: Reilly, J.M.; Shankle, S.A. & Pomykala, J.S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Methodology for coding the energy emergency management information system. [Facility ID's and energy codes]

Description: The coding methodology for creating facility ID's and energy codes from information existing in EIA data systems currently being mapped into the EEMIS data structure is presented. A comprehensive approach is taken to facilitate implementation of EEMIS. A summary of EIA data sources which will be a part of the final system is presented in a table showing the intersection of 19 EIA data systems with the EEMIS data structure. The methodology for establishing ID codes for EIA sources and the corresponding EEMIS facilities in this table is presented. Detailed energy code translations from EIA source systems to the EEMIS energy codes are provided in order to clarify the transfer of energy data from many EIA systems which use different coding schemes. 28 tables.
Date: November 1, 1979
Creator: D'Acierno, J.; Hermelee, A.; Fredrickson, C.P. & Van Valkenburg, K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Regional Demand Forecasting Model: 1977 and 1978 versions. Task 3, final documentation report

Description: This report documents the demand forecasting model, RDFOR. Chapter I presents an overview of the structure of RDFOR as well as its linkages with other models within the PIES model. An important link between RDFOR and PIES is the Demand Interface System (DFACE) which prepares the output of RDFOR for input into PIES. Chapter II provides an in-depth analysis of the data bases used in the estimation and simulation of RDFOR. It presents an analysis of trends in energy data by fuel and by sector for both the United States as a whole and for each of the 10 DOE Regions. Chapter III provides a detailed analysis of the theoretical structure of RDFOR, analyzes a transportation sector model and a minor fuels sector model which differ in structure from the other sectors within RDFOR, and examines the econometric implementation of RDFOR. Chapter IV describes the simulation of RDFOR and its resultant forecasts. Emphasis is placed on the various restrictions and transformations performed prior to and during the simulation. A description of scenario implementation is also included. An analysis of the changes made in the simulation equations from the specification of the estimation equations is an important part of this chapter.
Date: September 25, 1978
Creator: Parhizgari, A M
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Predictive methodology for supply disruptions

Description: Energy supply disruptions do not suddenly arise in a full-blown fashion. Lags in the energy system provide a time horizon which allows for the prediction of a possible supply problem. A simple model is described which can be used to provide a set of indicators for the possible onset of an energy emergency. The methodology was tested on the gasoline shortage of 1979, and the results are presented.
Date: April 1, 1982
Creator: Beller, M. & D'Acierno, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Decentralized energy planning and consensus in energy policy

Description: This paper explores the following three propositions and their relationships: (1) that, in our pluralistic policymaking environment, we cannot solve our nation's energy problems unless we can reach agreement among a diverse group of interested parties about specific actions; (2) that, short of a manifest emergency, such a consensus is difficult to reach unless the scale of the decision-making unit is relatively small; and therefore (3) that one of the keys to an effective energy policy in the United states is to rely heavily on local and regional energy planning and decision-making. First, the paper reviews our problem of irresolution and its roots, and it summaries the policy options for resolving it. Then it explores one of those options, decentralized planning, in a little more detail. Finally, it offers some speculations about the viability of a decentralized approach to energy planninng.
Date: May 2, 1980
Creator: Wilbanks, T.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy management, planning, and program development

Description: The Ohio ERDA is statutorily required to maintain an energy-planning capability and to manage a programmatic effort to bring Ohio energy supply and demand into balance consistent with the state's growth and development needs. The Ohio Energy Information System is the major planning tool and it encompasses the Ohio Energy Data Base, the Energy Short-Term Emergency Evalution Model, and a capability to assess alternative-policy-action impacts. A discussion of the program is presented. (MCW)
Date: January 1, 1977
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy Northwest: Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

Description: The four-state area, one of 10 Federal regions established to streamline Federal operations and encourage Federal-state-local cooperation, includes Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The sources of energy and some energy technology are first reviewed briefly. The physical characteristics and regional developments are identified. Energy reserves, production, imports, facilities, and consumption are examined for the Northwest. The following energy issues are examined: conservation, electric rates, Clean Air Act of 1970, continental shelf development, transmission corridors, centralized electric generation, electric generation mix, electric power planning, environment and safety regulations, water use, electric energy forecasts, and oil tankers. (MCW)
Date: October 1, 1977
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Contribution to screening methodology

Description: The screening method for determining objective approximate values for the sensitivity coefficients of the output of a computer code to the input data is analyzed. An estimator proposed to solve such problems is used to investigate one of the outputs of a simplified model of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The results are presented and compared to the true values of the sensitivity coefficients. The estimator produces results that appear more arbitrary than approximate. The screening problem is analyzed from the point of view of a theory of logical inference, and it is argued that no objective, approximate, and useful solution exists for a code treated as a black box (that is to say, that no assumptions, prior or otherwise, are made about the code, except the ability to run) since no degree of confidence can be placed on the solution. Requirements on additional information needed to produce a solution that could qualify as objective, approximate, and useful are investigated. It is shown that such information can in principle be obtained, and the problem then admits a solution. The emphasis is on the conceptual aspects rather than on the mathematical details of the problem and its solution. 2 figures, 4 tables.
Date: March 1, 1981
Creator: Perey, F. G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Chief financial officer's task force on rationing feasibility, cost and schedule. Final report

Description: The purpose of this memorandum is to report our realistic assessment of the feasibility, cost, and time frame for bringing a rationing program to 90-day readiness. The basic aspects of the nature of the rationing plan are discussed. The plan has been changed in several respects in response to comments from the Congress, the general public and the ECC, since the previous version was rejected by the Congress in May 1979. Three changes in particular impact the preimplementation process: The range of entities accorded status as priority firms has increased to cover such groups as telecommunications firms and for-hire delivery firms; All firms (not just priority users) are alloted rights for a percentage of their historical gasoline usage; States have more influence on the division of the total state supply between state reserves and vehicle allotments. The rationing plan, is described on a chart depicting the interaction of the principal components is included. The rationing process starts when checks for coupons are sent to owners of registered vehicles. The biggest single problem area appears to be delivering these checks into the hands of the vehicle registrants who are entitled to them. (DMC)
Date: March 5, 1980
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Industrial fuel choice analysis model. Volume I: primary model documentation. First draft

Description: IFCAM is an energy-demand model developed in response to the need to evaluate fuel-choice decisions in the industrial sector over a 10- to 15-year forecasting horizon. The model generates complete model outputs for 1985, 1990, and 1995. These outputs, providing fuel-mix results in either absolute amounts or as distribution percentages, are available under several formats. The fuel-use figures can be presented by new or existing combustors, functional uses (boilers vs process heaters), nine industry sectors, and 10 regions. Boiler results can be broken down by size and capacity utilization. The model can provide outputs related to the cost, tax, and environmental impacts associated with an energy scenario. The basic outputs from the model are oil, gas, and coal demand after all the incentives and fuel-type constraints have been evaluated.
Date: January 8, 1979
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Industrial Sector Technology Use Model (ISTUM): industrial energy use in the United States, 1974-2000. Volume 2. Results

Description: This volume, the second of a four-volume report, presents the current status of the Industrial Sector Technology Use Model (ISTUM), an analysis and projection of the use of energy in the industrial sector, developed as a tool to develop insights on the energy future of the US. Volume 1 describes the model logic and primary data inputs of ISTUM. This volume presents the results of the initial base case run of ISTUM. Volumes III and IV discuss in detail the energy demand data inputs and technology cost inputs, respectively. It is believed that, given the specified policy scenarios, the results presented in this volume provide an accurate picture of the trends in the demands for fuels and technologies for the remainder of the century. Following the introductory chapter, chapters are entitled: Projected Trends in Industrial Fuel Consumption; Projected Contributions of Technologies to the Industrial Sector; and Service Sector Perspectives of ISTUM 4/6/78 Base Case Results (steam sector, direct heat - intermediate and dirty; indirect heat - coal capable; machine drive service sector; electrolytic sector; space heat; indirect - not coal capable; calcining; glass melting; brick and clay firing; iron making; and steel reheating).
Date: June 19, 1978
Creator: Bohn, R.E. & Herod, J.S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Estimation, forecasting, and multiplier-simulation analyses of industrial demand for electricity in the United States

Description: This paper discusses the specification of electricity demand and price equations for manufacturing industries and presents empirical results, based on the data for 16 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) three-digit industries from 1959 to 1976. Performances of estimated coefficients for the equations are evaluated by sample-period simulation tests. The estimated coefficients are then used to forecast electricity demand by industry and also to conduct multiplier-simulation analysis. Preliminary results show that most of the estimated coefficients have the expected signs and are statistically significant. The estimated equations perform well in terms of sample-period simulation tests, registering small mean absolute percentage errors and mean square percentage errors. Forecasted results indicate that total electricity demand for the sector will grow at an average annual rate of 3.4% from 1977 to 1990 with a wide range of variation in the growth rates of individual industries. Results from multiplier simulation analyses reveal that changes in the price of natural gas, the value added, and the costs of generating electricity will affect future industrial demand for electricity substantially.
Date: January 1, 1979
Creator: Chang, H S & Chern, W S
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

U. S. energy and economic growth, 1975--2010

Description: This study projects economic growth (GNP) and energy demand for the U.S. to the year 2010. The main finding is that both GNP and total energy demand are likely to grow significantly more slowly than has been assumed in most analyses of energy policy. Projections of energy, GNP, and electricity (total and per capita) are summarized, with electricity demand expected to grow more rapidly than total energy demand. Two scenarios designated ''high'' and ''low'' were developed in this study. However, even the ''high'' scenario, 126 quads (q; 1 q equals 10/sup 15/ Btu) in 2000, is much lower than most previous estimates. It is felt that this raises serious questions about fundamental energy and energy R and D policies which, generally, have been based on perceptions of more lavish energy futures. Although the aggregate demands and GNP are projected to increase rather modestly, the energy demands per capita and GNP per capita increase at rates comparable to or even higher than historic rates. The authors believe that the projections developed in this study represent a logical culmination of many trends toward lower growth. These trends have not yet been factored into the older energy projections upon which so much energy policy is based. 136 references.
Date: September 1, 1976
Creator: Allen, E.L.; Cooper, C.L.; Edmonds, F.C.; Edmonds, J.A.; Reister, D.B.; Weinberg, A.M. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Distributed technologies in California's energy future. Volume I

Description: This interim report contains eight of the eighteen chapters included in the complete report. In Chapter I, pertinent data, facts, and observations are made following an initial summary. Chapter II is an introduction, citing especially the writings of Amory Lovins. The criteria used in defining distributed systems, suggested by Lovins, are that the technologies be renewable, environmentally benign, local, subject to graceful failure, foolproof, flexible, comprehensible, and matched in energy quality. The following chapters are: The Energy Predicament; The California Setting; Energy Resources for California's Future; Alternative Energy Futures for California; Issues and Problems; and Directions for Future Work. Six appendices deal with residential heating loads and air conditioning, allocations, co-generation, population projections, and the California wind energy resource. (MCW)
Date: September 1, 1977
Creator: Christensen, M.; Craig, P.; McGuire, C.B. & Simmons, M. (eds.)
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume IV. Model documentation

Description: This volume is the fourth in a series of seven documenting the PIES Integrating Model. It contains detailed descriptions of the basic assumptions behind each of the components of PIES and how they interact with one another. Chapter II of this volume presents the methodology used to integrate supply and demand. It includes a discussion of both the interface between the Demand Model and the equilibrating mechanism and the various supply models via the equilibrating algorithm used by PIES. Chapters III through IX describe each supply submodel in turn: coal, oil, and natural gas supply, utilities, refineries, advanced technologies, and transportation. Code and data documentation are covered elsewhere in this series (Volumes V and VI respectively). PIES is an evolving system. As this document was being prepared, many parts of the model were being modified. This document describes the PIES Integrating Model as of January 1, 1978.
Date: February 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M L; Allen, B J; Gale, J E; Lutz, M S; O'Hara, N E & Wood, R K
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department