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Comparative assessment of five long-run energy projections.

Description: This rport compares five major long-term forecasts prepared under similar assumptions by: Professor George Dantzig's PILOT Process Integrated Model/Welfare Equilibrium Model system (PILOT); Professor Alan S. Manne's ETA-MACRO energy-economy model system; The combined Brookhaven National Laboratory/Dale W. Jorgenson Associates (BNL/DJA) energy-economy model system; The FOSSIL2 energy model operated by the Office of Policy and Evaluation in the Department of Energy; The Long-range Energy Analysis Package energy model ARC-78 (LEAP), operated by the Energy Informaion Administration in the Department of Energy. After summarizing the method of preparation of each forecast, the report compares the results in detail and explains the differences both in terms of data assumptions and methodological approach.
Date: December 1, 1979
Creator: Kydes, A.S. & Pearson, J.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume 1. Executive summary

Description: This report is Volume I of a six-volume series documenting the Integrating Model of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) as it existed on January 1, 1978. It offers a review of entire PIES system, including the basic components of the Integrating Model, which are described in detail in Volume IV of this series. In particular, this volume addresses the problem that PIES solves and the major features and applications of PIES.
Date: April 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M.L. & Hutzler, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Generalized equilibrium modeling: the methodology of the SRI-Gulf energy model. Final report

Description: The report provides documentation of the generalized equilibrium modeling methodology underlying the SRI-Gulf Energy Model and focuses entirely on the philosophical, mathematical, and computational aspects of the methodology. The model is a highly detailed regional and dynamic model of the supply and demand for energy in the US. The introduction emphasized the need to focus modeling efforts on decisions and the coordinated decomposition of complex decision problems using iterative methods. The conceptual framework is followed by a description of the structure of the current SRI-Gulf model and a detailed development of the process relations that comprise the model. The network iteration algorithm used to compute a solution to the model is described and the overall methodology is compared with other modeling methodologies. 26 references.
Date: May 1, 1977
Creator: Gazalet, E.G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Validation issues: a view from the trenches

Description: Most papers on model evaluation or assessment dealing with verification and validation discuss means and mechanisms by which outside parties can perform peer review to provide verification and establish the validity of models. Little attention is paid to activities performed by the user-modeling team itself to improve the ability of the model to provide information useful in the decision-making process, and to provide confidence that the information is meaningful. This paper presents a number of case histories describing the authors' experience with this type of model improvement activity, called internal validation. They have been convinced that internal validation schemes should be incorporated in the project description and that they be used in part to answer questions of formulation. They further recommend that modelers incorporate sufficient funding in their project plans to carry out this function.
Date: January 1, 1979
Creator: Marcuse, W.; Pilati, D. & Sparrow, T.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Quantification of uncertainties in the parameters of a long-term energy model

Description: Even if the form of an energy-economy model's equations can be assumed to specify correctly our technological processes and the relevant behaviors of our society over the necessary time range, there is uncertainty in model results induced by our imperfect knowledge of the numerical values of the model's parameters and input data. Some of this uncertainty is typically covered by provision of alternative scenarios with assumptions but, up to now, modelers have rarely dealt in detail with the inherent uncertainty of input data. However, when model output or response can be represented by a first-order Taylor expansion in the input data about the nominal solution point, knowledge of the variance-covariance (uncertainty) matrix of the input data is sufficient to determine the uncertainty in the computed response induced by the input uncertainties. Some guidelines are given for the evaluation of the required input-uncertainty matrices. Illustrative examples are given from the authors' beginning efforts to develop an uncertainty matrix for the important parameters of the Long-term Energy Analysis Package used within the Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy.
Date: January 1, 1979
Creator: Peelle, R W; Downing, D J & Bjornstad, D J
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Briefing presented to the Senior Staff Advisory Committee, Energy Research Development Administration

Description: This report is made up of slides presented at the briefing on recommendations for the incorporation of MOPPS-like detail into the BNL/DRI model. Major subjects are: fundamental purpose of energy planning; ERDA planning; hierarchical framework of production functions/models; recommendation; and management plan for implementation of recommendation. (MCW)
Date: July 6, 1977
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Probabilistic interpretation of market shares

Description: The focus of this paper is the development of a steady-state (long-term) characterization of the market-allocation process under uncertainty in prices of delivered products. The generic method was developed with a view toward incorporation of the methodology within large-scale energy models such as the LEAP model of the US DOE or the TESOM model of Brookhaven National Laboratory. 19 references, 5 figures.
Date: December 1, 1979
Creator: Gerasoulis, A. & Kydes, A.S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Sensitivity analysis and a national energy model example

Description: Sensitivity analysis, a study of changes in a model output produced by varying model inputs, is much more than estimating partial derivatives. As a part of model evaluation, it is an exploratory process directed towards finding out how and why a model responds to different values of inputs. When viewed as a data analysis problem, the intent of sensitivity analysis is to make an inference about a model based on a sample of observations generated from the space of input values. The validity of the inferences is tied closely to the laws, or assumptions, relating the observations (data) and the model.
Date: October 1, 1979
Creator: McKay, M.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modelling of capital requirements in the energy sector: capital market access. Final memorandum

Description: Formal modelling techniques for analyzing the capital requirements of energy industries have been performed at DOE. A survey has been undertaken of a number of models which forecast energy-sector capital requirements or which detail the interactions of the energy sector and the economy. Models are identified which can be useful as prototypes for some portion of DOE's modelling needs. The models are examined to determine any useful data bases which could serve as inputs to an original DOE model. A selected group of models are examined which can comply with the stated capabilities. The data sources being used by these models are covered and a catalog of the relevant data bases is provided. The models covered are: capital markets and capital availability models (Fossil 1, Bankers Trust Co., DRI Macro Model); models of physical capital requirements (Bechtel Supply Planning Model, ICF Oil and Gas Model and Coal Model, Stanford Research Institute National Energy Model); macroeconomic forecasting models with input-output analysis capabilities (Wharton Annual Long-Term Forecasting Model, Brookhaven/University of Illinois Model, Hudson-Jorgenson/Brookhaven Model); utility models (MIT Regional Electricity Model-Baughman Joskow, Teknekron Electric Utility Simulation Model); and others (DRI Energy Model, DRI/Zimmerman Coal Model, and Oak Ridge Residential Energy Use Model).
Date: April 1, 1978
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy auditor training curriculum

Description: The curriculum presented is designed to be used by States in training energy auditors. The curriculum has been prepared to insure that participating individuals are technically competent to plan, implement, and follow-up energy audits. Successful completion of the program satisfies general-qualification requirements for an energy auditor. The core of the training curriculum is the logical sequence of steps that the energy auditor will be experiencing in conducting energy audits and the implementation and monitoring of a comprehensive energy-management program. (MCW)
Date: October 1, 1979
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Computerized management report system for monitoring manpower and cost

Description: Although most cost systems offer complete detail and traceability, not all provide timely detail in a concise form useful to senior management. This system was developed for a multifunction research organization funded from many sources. It extracts cost and manpower data from the general cost systems, summarizes it, compares it by program with previous cost periods, and presents it with minimum detail yet with maximum overview. The system monitors the basic manpower distribution of effort at the source, that is, the division time-card input. Cost data are taken from the central computer ahead of the print-out and report-distribution steps; thus, the summary information is available several days ahead of the detailed reports. This procedure has been regularly used for several months, and has proven to be a valuable tool in management action and planning. 9 figures.
Date: April 1, 1980
Creator: Bullington, V.R.; Stephenson, R.L. & Cardwell, R.G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Capital Requirements Estimating Model (CREMOD) for electric utilities. Volume I. Methodology description, model, description, and guide to model applications. [For each year up to 1990]

Description: The Capital Requirements Estimating Model for the Electric Utilities (CREMOD) is a system of programs and data files used to estimate the capital requirements of the electric utility industry for each year between the current one and 1990. CREMOD disaggregates new electric plant capacity levels from the Mid-term Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) Integrating Model solution over time using actual projected commissioning dates. It computes the effect on aggregate capital requirements of dispersal of new plant and capital expenditures over relatively long construction lead times on aggregate capital requirements for each year. Finally, it incorporates the effects of real escalation in the electric utility construction industry on these requirements and computes the necessary transmission and distribution expenditures. This model was used in estimating the capital requirements of the electric utility sector. These results were used in compilation of the aggregate capital requirements for the financing of energy development as published in the 1978 Annual Report to Congress. This volume, Vol. I, explains CREMOD's methodology, functions, and applications.
Date: January 1, 1980
Creator: Collins, D E; Gammon, J & Shaw, M L
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Evaluation of the long-term energy analysis program used for the 1978 EIA Administrator's Report to Congress

Description: An evaluation of the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP), a computer model of the energy portion of the US economy that was used for the 1995-2020 projections in its 1978 Annual Report to Congress, is presented. An overview of the 1978 version, LEAP Model 22C, is followed by an analysis of the important results needed by its users. The model is then evaluated on the basis of: (1) the adequacy of its documentation; (2) the local experience in operating the model; (3) the adequacy of the numerical techniques used; (4) the soundness of the economic and technical foundations of the model equations; and (5) the degree to which the computer program has been verified. To show which parameters strongly influence the results and to approach the question of whether the model can project important results with sufficient accuracy to support qualitative conclusions, the numerical sensitivities of some important results to model input parameters are described. The input data are categorized and discussed, and uncertainties are given for some parameters as examples. From this background and from the relation of LEAP to other available approaches for long-term energy modeling, an overall evaluation is given of the model's suitability for use by the EIA.
Date: October 1, 1981
Creator: Peelle, R. W.; Weisbin, C. R. & Alsmiller, Jr., R. G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume II. Primer

Description: This report provides documentation of the PIES Integrating Model as it existed on January 1, 1978. This primer aids in understanding what PIES optimizes and how it calculates an energy equilibrium. PIES is composed of several models, with the goal of determining supply of, and demand for, energy goods in 1985 and 1990. It must deal with how to model policy actions affecting energy equilibria along with determining an equilibrium (integrating supply and demand). PIES methodology and a sample PIES linear-programming problem (market equilibrium without constraints) are presented. (MCW)
Date: March 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M.L. & Hutzler, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume V. Code documentation

Description: This volume is a description of the Project Independence Evaluation System as a computer system. It is intended for readers wanting a basic understanding of the computer implementation of PIES rather than an understanding of the modeling methodology. It can assist those who wish to run PIES on the EIA computer facility or to use PIES on their own facilities, or to analyze the PIES computer processing. The document contains: an overview of the computer implementation; a description of the data and naming conventions used in PIES; a functional description of PIES data processing; PIES hardware and software requirements; and an operational description of the PIES processing flow. This overview defines the scope of PIES in this report and thus governs the computer system descriptions that follow. It also provides an historical view of the development of PIES.
Date: July 1, 1978
Creator: Shaw, M L; Allen, B J; Lutz, M S; Gale, J E; O'Hara, N E & Wood, R K
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrating Model of the Project Independence Evaluation System. Volume III. User's Guide

Description: Volume III of the six-volume series documenting the Integrating Model of PIES provides a potential PIES user with a description of how PIES operates with particular emphasis on the possible variations in assumptions and data that can be made in specifying alternative scenarios. PIES is described as it existed on January 1, 1978. The introductory chapter is followed by Section II, an overview of the structure and components of PIES. Section III discusses each of the PIES components in detail; describes the Demand Model; contains a description of the models, assumptions, and data which provide supply side inputs to the PIES Integrating Model; and concludes with a discussion of those aspects of PIES which extend the scope of the analysis beyond the national energy market. Section IV discusses two reports produced by the PIES Integrating Model: the PIES Integrating Model Report and the Coal Transportation Report. (MCW)
Date: March 1, 1979
Creator: Shaw, M.L. & Hutzler, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Experiment in multiple-criteria energy policy analysis. [Using HOPE (holistic preference evaluation)]

Description: An international panel of energy analysts participated in an experiment to use HOPE (holistic preference evaluation): an interactive parametric linear-programming method for multiple-criteria optimization. The criteria of cost, environmental effect, crude oil, and nuclear fuel were considered according to BESOM: an energy model for the US in the year 2000.
Date: July 1, 1980
Creator: Ho, J K
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

IRATE: an interactive computer program for access to the energy system network simulator (ESNS) model

Description: An interactive computer program was developed to facilitate access to the Energy System Network Simulator (ESNS) model and is presented in this report. ESNS is an energy-process flow model developed to assist in the analysis and evaluation of energy and/or environmental policy questions for the U.S. energy system. A primary application for the ESNS model is the generation of perturbation analyses by the modification of any of the input parameters. The code described in this report permits individuals with a minimal amount of programming expertise to directly input a prepared analysis at a computer terminal.
Date: April 1, 1977
Creator: Sevian, W A; Abilock, H & Michaile, S
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Capacity-expansion planning under uncertainty in the electric-utility industry

Description: This document basically represents a comparison between theory and practice of capacity-expansion planning in the electric-utility industry. The purpose of the comparison is to provide avenues for further exploration in utility decision making. The focus of the Phase II study is upon the role of uncertainty in the decision-making process. The Phase I effort was directed at modeling the Averch-Johnson theory of the regulated utility. Part I of this report reviews the Anderson study (D. Anderson, Models for Determining Least-Cost Investments in Electricity Supply). The Anderson paper has become a standard reference for capacity-planning studies in the electric-utility industry. Part II examines uncertainty and the behavior of the firm. Part III reviews 5 models of electric-utility capacity planning under uncertainty, and Part IV is concerned with capacity-planning models in practice.
Date: July 25, 1980
Creator: Soyster, A.L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Data-gathering method for use in modeling energy research, development, and demonstration programs

Description: The development and testing of a data-gathering method for use in a computer program designed to model energy research, development, and demonstration programs for decisionmakers are described. The data-gathering method consists of face-to-face interviews with the scientists working on the projects that will be modeled by the computer program. The basic information gained from an interview includes time estimates for reaching certain project goals and the probability of achieving those goals within the times estimated. The interview method is based on decision analysis techniques. The Magnetic Fusion Energy program of the US Department of Energy was selected as the test case for this project. The data gathering method was used at five fusion projects to determine whether it could meet its design criteria. Extensive statistical analysis was performed to learn how much the expert's answers agreed, what factors were likely to enter into their estimates, and how their estimates corresponded to the officially scheduled dates and to the dates that the project goals were actually achieved. The interview method was considered to have met its design criteria and to be a valid tool for planning.
Date: January 1, 1981
Creator: Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.; Cullingford, H.S. & Peaslee, A.T. Jr.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Future buildings Forum-2025: Toward a methodology for future buildings research

Description: The purpose of this paper is to explore methods that could be used in studying buildings of the future. The methodology that the forum will develop will have a number of likely applications, among them: the development of research agendas for new building energy technologies; the development of information and analytical capabilities usable by other IEA annexes to address their technology assessment needs; and the generation of information that can serve as input to global energy models designed to inform energy policy decisions. This paper is divided into two major sections. The first is an overview of existing methods of futures research. Terms and concepts are explained, providing the basis for the second section. The second section proposes a framework and general methodology for studying future buildings. This preliminary, or strawman, methodology is intended to provoke early thinking and discussions on how the research should be approached. 24 refs., 8 figs.
Date: October 1, 1990
Creator: Briggs, R.S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Neoclassical theory of durable good diffusion

Description: Existing studies that deal with the diffusion of durable good innovations have been justifiably criticized for their common lack of an explicit testable theory of new product growth. This paper attempts to remedy this situation by providing a theoretical model of market penetration of new durable goods that is derived from the basic assumption that potential users of the new intermediate product attempt to minimize the discounted costs of production over time. The resulting model defines a time path of short-run equilibrium market shares that are determined by the cost characteristics (capital cost and operating and maintenance expenses) of both the new innovation and the equipment that it is designed to replace, the age distribution of the existing capital stock, and the growth rate of the adopting sector. This model is shown to exhibit several attractive features lacking in existing models of the diffusion process. First, it yields a number of testable hypotheses, some of which have received indirect empirical support in previous studies on the subject. Second, it is operational in the absence of historical data on the market experience of the new good under investigation. And third, it is capable of generating, on the basis of such ex ante information, the complete range of functional forms used in prior models to represent the relationship between market share and elapsed time since introduction of the new innovation. These features render the model inherently superior to existing studies for the analysis of emerging products and frontier technologies for which market data are not yet available.
Date: October 1, 1979
Creator: Jackson, J.R. & Kaserman, D.L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

DOE-2 Verification Project: Phase I results

Description: A computer program, designated DOE-2 (formerly DOE-1), has been developed to provide architect/engineers with a public domain tool for fast and economic energy analysis of buildings. Los Alamos Scientific Lab. has developed and implemented a program plan to verify DOE-2. Phase I of this plan is an analytical verification of the DOE-2 program as a computational unit rather than as separate algorithms. Work on Phase I of the DOE-2 Verification Project is nearly complete. Results of the crosscheck with ASHRAE loads calculative procedures, as well as the results of a line-by-line check of program constants and flag-setting algorithms, are reported. Also presented are results of empirical tests of the full DOE-2 program, including comparisons with measured energy consumption, and preliminary results of a study of the user interpretation of input data on predicted results.
Date: January 1, 1980
Creator: Diamond, S.C. & Hunn, B.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department