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Electricity market module: Electricity capacity planning submodule

Description: The purpose of this report is to describe modifications to the Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule (ECP) for the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. It describes revisions to enhance the representation of planned maintenance, incorporate technological improvements in operating efficiencies, revise the algorithm for determining international firm power imports, and include risk premiums for new plant construction.
Date: June 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects. The NEMS Industrial Demand Model is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together the disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries, and putting them together in an understandable and cohesive framework. The Industrial Model generates mid-term (up to the year 2015) forecasts of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the NEMS integrated forecasting system. From the NEMS system, the Industrial Model receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial output. Based on the values of these variables, the Industrial Model passes back to the NEMS system estimates of consumption by fuel types.
Date: January 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document that provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports according to Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.
Date: January 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Annual Energy Outlook 1995: with Projections to 2010

Description: The Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projections and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1995 and 1996 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1995). Forecast tables for the five cases examined in the AEO95 are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendix A gives historical data and forecasts for selected years from 1992 through 2010 for the reference case. Appendix B presents two additional cases, which assume higher and lower economic growth than the reference case. Appendix C presents two cases that assume higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix D presents a summary of the forecasts in units of oil equivalence. Appendix E presents a summary of household energy expenditures. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO95 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS and the major AEO95 forecast assumptions. Appendix H presents a stand-alone high electricity demand case. Appendix 1 provides a table of energy conversion factors and a table of metric conversion factors. 89 figs., 23 tabs.
Date: January 1995
Creator: United States. Energy Information Administration. Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Electricity market module: Electricity fuel dispatch submodule

Description: In previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO), international electricity trade was represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Electricity Market Module (EMM) modeling framework as an exogenous input. The exception to this exogenous treatment was for firm power projections, i.e., new Canadian hydroelectric model builds. The AEO95 implementation of EMM allowed Canadian hydroelectric projects to be selected in the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) submodule on an annual basis and otherwise addressed as any other purchased power commitments. This technical memorandum addresses modifications to the Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule implemented in AEO96 to enhance the treatment of international electricity trade through the representation of economy imports from Canada.
Date: June 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This report serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1)). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Date: February 1, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1997 (AEO 97). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1997 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Date: February 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

NEMS integrating module documentation report

Description: The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of U.S. energy markets for the midterm period. NEMS projects the production, imports, conversion, consumption, and prices of energy, subject to a variety of assumptions. The assumptions encompass macroeconomic and financial factors, world energy markets, resource availability and costs, behavioral and technological choice criteria, technology characteristics, and demographics. NEMS produces a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand in the U.S. energy markets on an annual basis through 2015. Baseline forecasts from NEMS are published in the Annual Energy Outlook. Analyses are also prepared in response to requests by the U.S. Congress, the DOE Office of Policy, and others. NEMS was first used for forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1994.
Date: May 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA`s modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes.
Date: February 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

Description: This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.
Date: August 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Voluntary reporting of greenhouse gases, 1995

Description: The Voluntary Reporting Program for greenhouse gases is part of an attempt by the U.S. Government to develop innovative, low-cost, and nonregulatory approaches to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. It is one element in an array of such programs introduced in recent years as part of the effort being made by the United States to comply with its national commitment to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Voluntary Reporting Program, developed pursuant to Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992, permits corporations, government agencies, households, and voluntary organizations to report to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on actions taken that have reduced or avoided emissions of greenhouse gases.
Date: July 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

Description: This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.
Date: January 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Emissions of greenhouse gases in the United States 1995

Description: This is the fourth Energy Information Administration (EIA) annual report on US emissions of greenhouse gases. This report presents estimates of US anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and several other greenhouse gases for 1988 through 1994. Estimates of 1995 carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and halocarbon emissions are also provided, although complete 1995 estimates for methane are not yet available. Emissions of carbon dioxide increased by 1.9% from 1993 to 1994 and by an additional 0.8% from 1994 to 1995. Most carbon dioxide emissions are caused by the burning of fossil fuels for energy consumption, which is strongly related to economic growth, energy prices, and weather. The US economy grew rapidly in 1994 and slowed in 1995. Estimated emissions of methane increased slightly in 1994, as a result of a rise in emissions from energy and agricultural sources. Estimated nitrous oxide emissions increased by 1.8% in 1995, primarily due to increased use of nitrogen fertilizers and higher output of chemicals linked to nitrous oxide emissions. Estimated emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), which are known to contribute to global warming, increased by nearly 11% in 1995, primarily as a result of increasing substitution for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). With the exception of methane, the historical emissions estimates presented in this report are only slightly revised from those in last year`s report.
Date: October 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Annual Energy Outlook 1997: with Projections to 2015

Description: The Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (AEO97) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2015 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). These projections are based on results of EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report begins with a summary of the reference case, followed by a discussion of the legislative assumptions and evolving legislative and regulatory issues. ``Issues in Focus`` discusses emerging energy issues and other topics of particular interest. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends. The analysis in AEO97 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for these cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendixes D and E present summaries of the reference case forecasts in units of oil equivalence and household energy expenditures. Twenty-three other cases explore the impacts of varying key assumptions in NEMS--generally, technology penetration, with the major results shown in Appendix F. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS and the major AEO97 assumptions, with a summary table. 114 figs., 22 tabs.
Date: December 1996
Creator: United States. Energy Information Administration. Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.
Date: February 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

Description: The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.
Date: December 28, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: Over the past year, several modifications have been made to the NEMS Transportation Model, incorporating greater levels of detail and analysis in modules previously represented in the aggregate or under a profusion of simplifying assumptions. This document is intended to amend those sections of the Model Documentation Report (MDR) which describe these superseded modules. Significant changes have been implemented in the LDV Fuel Economy Model, the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, the LDV Fleet Module, and the Highway Freight Model. The relevant sections of the MDR have been extracted from the original document, amended, and are presented in the following pages. A brief summary of the modifications follows: In the Fuel Economy Model, modifications have been made which permit the user to employ more optimistic assumptions about the commercial viability and impact of selected technological improvements. This model also explicitly calculates the fuel economy of an array of alternative fuel vehicles (AFV`s) which are subsequently used in the estimation of vehicle sales. In the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Model, the results of the Fuel Economy Model have been incorporated, and the program flows have been modified to reflect that fact. In the Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Module, the sales of vehicles to fleets of various size are endogenously calculated in order to provide a more detailed estimate of the impacts of EPACT legislation on the sales of AFV`s to fleets. In the Highway Freight Model, the previous aggregate estimation has been replaced by a detailed Freight Truck Stock Model, where travel patterns, efficiencies, and energy intensities are estimated by industrial grouping. Several appendices are provided at the end of this document, containing data tables and supplementary descriptions of the model development process which are not integral to an understanding of the overall model structure.
Date: February 1, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The impacts on U.S. energy markets and the economy of reducing oil imports. Service report

Description: The General Accounting Office (GAO) has responded to a request from Representative John Kasich by requesting that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) use the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to estimate the cost to the U.S. economy of reducing oil imports. The analysis summarized by this paper focuses on two approaches toward a target reduction in oil imports: (1) a set of cases with alternative world crude oil price trajectories, and (2) two cases which investigates the use of an oil import fee.
Date: September 1, 1996
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports according to Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.
Date: March 1, 1995
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies, market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.
Date: January 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

Description: The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. Subsequent chapters of this report provide: an overview of NGTDM; a description of the interface between the NEMS and NGTDM; an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM; the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module; the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module; the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module; the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module; and a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs.
Date: January 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

Description: This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its model. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.
Date: January 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Annual Energy Outlook 1998: with Projections to 2020

Description: The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) is the first AEO with projections to 2020. Key issues for the forecast extension are trends in energy efficiency improvements, the effects of increasing production and productivity improvements on energy prices, and the reduction in nuclear generating capacity. Projections in AEO98 also reflect a greater shift to electricity market restructuring. Restructuring is addressed through several changes that are assumed to occur in the industry, including a shorter capital recovery period for capacity expansion decisions and a revised financial structure that features a higher cost of capital as the result of higher competitive risk. Both assumptions tend to favor less capital-intensive generation technologies, such as natural gas, over coal or baseload renewable technologies. The forecasts include specific restructuring plans in those regions that have announced plans. California, New York, and New England are assumed to begin competitive pricing in 1998. The provisions of the California legislation for stranded cost recovery and price caps are incorporated. In New York and New England, stranded cost recovery is assumed to be phased out by 2008.
Date: December 1997
Creator: United States. Energy Information Administration. Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department