Description: We describe a methodology for obtaining probabilistic risk estimates of deliberate unauthorized acts, integrating estimates of frequencies of serious plots, probabilities of avoiding detection and interdiction, probabilities of successful action, and consequences of the act. This methodology allows us to compare the risks of deliberate acts with those of accidents and to identify the most cost- effective risk reduction measures through cost-benefit analysis.
Date: January 19, 1996
Creator: Stephens, D; Futterman, J.A., Parziale, A.A.; Randazzo, A. & Warshawsky, A.S.
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