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Potential impacts of the Energy Policy Act on electricity and natural gas provider fleets

Description: Section 501 of the 1992 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPACT) mandates that alternative-fuel providers who may sell such fuels for transportation uses acquire alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs). The potential impacts of this mandate on the two largest groups of alternative-fuel providers--electricity and natural gas (NG) providers--are presented. Nationwide, 166 electric-only utility companies, 127 NG-only utility companies, and 55 dual-utility companies will be covered by EPACT. Together, these companies own/operate nearly 122,000 light-duty vehicles in the EPACT-defined metropolitan areas. Some 63 natural gas producers and transporters, which have 9700 light-duty vehicles, are also covered. We project that covered fuel providers will purchase 2710 AFVs in 1996 and 13, 650 AFVs by 2001. We estimate that natural gas companies already have 19.4% of their existing light-duty vehicle stocks as AFVs, dual companies have 10.0%, natural gas producers and transporters have 7. 0%, and electric companies have only 1.6%. If the existing AFVs count toward meeting the Section 501 requirements, NG providers (NG utilities, dual utilities, and NG producers and transporters) will need to make little additional effort, but electric companies will have to make substantial commitments to meet the requirements.
Date: March 1, 1996
Creator: Vyas, A.D. & Wang, M.Q.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Commercial viability of hybrid vehicles : best household use and cross national considerations.

Description: Japanese automakers have introduced hybrid passenger cars in Japan and will soon do so in the US. In this paper, we report how we used early computer simulation model results to compare the commercial viability of a hypothetical near-term (next decade) hybrid mid-size passenger car configuration under varying fuel price and driving patterns. The fuel prices and driving patterns evaluated are designed to span likely values for major OECD nations. Two types of models are used. One allows the ''design'' of a hybrid to a specified set of performance requirements and the prediction of fuel economy under a number of possible driving patterns (called driving cycles). Another provides an estimate of the incremental cost of the hybrid in comparison to a comparably performing conventional vehicle. In this paper, the models are applied to predict the NPV cost of conventional gasoline-fueled vehicles vs. parallel hybrid vehicles. The parallel hybrids are assumed to (1) be produced at high volume, (2) use nickel metal hydride battery packs, and (3) have high-strength steel bodies. The conventional vehicle also is assumed to have a high-strength steel body. The simulated vehicles are held constant in many respects, including 0-60 time, engine type, aerodynamic drag coefficient, tire rolling resistance, and frontal area. The hybrids analyzed use the minimum size battery pack and motor to meet specified 0-60 times. A key characteristic affecting commercial viability is noted and quantified: that hybrids achieve the most pronounced fuel economy increase (best use) in slow, average-speed, stop-and-go driving, but when households consistently drive these vehicles under these conditions, they tend to travel fewer miles than average vehicles. We find that hours driven is a more valuable measure than miles. Estimates are developed concerning hours of use of household vehicles versus driving cycle, and the pattern of minimum NPV incremental cost (or ...
Date: July 16, 1999
Creator: Santini, D. J. & Vyas, A. D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

Description: Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.
Date: April 1, 1991
Creator: Mintz, M.M. & Vyas, A.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The prospects for electric and hybrid electric vehicles: Second-stage results of a two-stage Delphi study

Description: This study was conducted to collect information for a technical and economic assessment of electric (EV) and hybrid (HEV) vehicles. The first-stage worldwide survey was completed in fall 1994, while the second-stage was completed by summer 1995. The paper reports results from the second round of the survey and major differences between the two rounds. This second-stage international survey obtained information from 93 expert respondents from the automotive technology field. Key results: EVs will penetrate the market first, followed by internal combustion engine HEVs, while gas turbine and fuel cell HEVs will come after 2020. By 2020, EVs and internal combustion engine HEVs will have a 15% share of the new vehicle market; they will also cost 18-50% more and will be slightly inferior to 1993 gasoline cars. AC induction motor is projected to be superior to DC and DC brushless motors by 2020, although the DC motor will be less expensive in 2000. DC brushless motors are projected to be the most expensive. Though generally declining, battery costs will remain high. EVs are believed to be effective in reducing urban emissions; however, their costs must be reduced drastically. Petroleum is expected to be the predominant fuel for hybrid vehicles through 2020. Mean energy equivalent fuel economy of electric drivetrain vehicles is projected to be 20-40% greater than for conventional vehicles in 2000, and to rise a few percents during the projection period. Respondents anticipate only a 16% increase in conventional vehicle fuel economy from 2000 to 2020.
Date: August 1, 1996
Creator: Ng, H.K.; Anderson, J.L.; Santini, D.J. & Vyas, A.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Assessing economic impacts of clean diesel engines. Phase 1 report: U.S.- or foreign-produced clean diesel engines for selected light trucks

Description: Light trucks' share of the US light vehicle market rose from 20% in 1980 to 41% in 1996. By 1996, annual energy consumption for light trucks was 6.0 x 10{sup 15} Btu (quadrillion Btu, or quad), compared with 7.9 quad for cars. Gasoline engines, used in almost 99% of light trucks, do not meet the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. These engines have poor fuel economy, many getting only 10--12 miles per gallon. Diesel engines, despite their much better fuel economy, had not been preferred by US light truck manufacturers because of problems with high NO{sub x} and particulate emissions. The US Department of Energy, Office of Heavy Vehicle Technologies, has funded research projects at several leading engine makers to develop a new low-emission, high-efficiency advanced diesel engine, first for large trucks, then for light trucks. Recent advances in diesel engine technology may overcome the NO{sub x} and particulate problems. Two plausible alternative clean diesel (CD) engine market penetration trajectories were developed, representing an optimistic case (High Case) and an industry response to meet the CAFE standards (CAFE Case). However, leadership in the technology to produce a successful small, advanced diesel engine for light trucks is an open issue between U.S. and foreign companies and could have major industry and national implications. Direct and indirect economic effects of the following CD scenarios were estimated by using the Standard and Poor's Data Resources, Inc., US economy model: High Case with US Dominance, High Case with Foreign Dominance, CAFE Case with US Dominance, and CAFE Case with Foreign Dominance. The model results demonstrate that the economic activity under each of the four CD scenarios is higher than in the Base Case (business as usual). The economic activity is highest for the High Case with US dominance, resulting in maximum gains in ...
Date: November 2, 1999
Creator: Teotia, A.P.; Vyas, A.D.; Cuenca, R.M. & Stodolsky, F.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success.

Description: Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.
Date: December 8, 1999
Creator: Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D. & Vyas, A. D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Evaluation of electric vehicle production and operating costs

Description: This report presents an analysis of the initial cost of electric vehicles (EVs). The manufacturing and retail cost structure of mature conventional vehicles produced at high volume is analyzed first, and the contributions by various cost categories to vehicle price are estimated. The costs are then allocated to such vehicle component groups as body, chassis, and powertrain. The similarities and differences among various component systems are reviewed. In electric vehicles, an electric drive replaces the conventional powertrain, and a battery pack replaces the fuel system. Three types of traction motors are reviewed, and their cost in high-volume production is analyzed. Various components of the motor and controller package are analyzed, and their representative costs are summarized. Four types of EV batteries are reviewed, and their costs are presented. Various alternatives for the low-, medium-, and high-volume production of EVs are evaluated, and some sample costs are presented. A methodology that estimates initial and operating costs on the basis of this analysis is presented. The methodology also estimates the average lifetime cost of owning and operating an electric vehicle.
Date: May 23, 2000
Creator: Cuenca, R. M.; Gaines, L. L. & Vyas, A. D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The prospects for hybrid electric vehicles, 2005-2020 : results of a Delphi Study.

Description: The introduction of Toyota's hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the Prius, in Japan has generated considerable interest in HEV technology among US automotive experts. In a follow-up survey to Argonne National Laboratory's two-stage Delphi Study on electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and HEVs) during 1994-1996, Argonne researchers gathered the latest opinions of automotive experts on the future ''top-selling'' HEV attributes and costs. The experts predicted that HEVs would have a spark-ignition gasoline engine as a power plant in 2005 and a fuel cell power plant by 2020. The projected 2020 fuel shares were about equal for gasoline and hydrogen, with methanol a distant third. In 2020, HEVs are predicted to have series-drive, moderate battery-alone range and cost significantly more than conventional vehicles (CVs). The HEV is projected to cost 66% more than a $20,000 CV initially and 33% more by 2020. Survey respondents view batteries as the component that contributes the most to the HEV cost increment. The mean projection for battery-alone range is 49 km in 2005, 70 km in 2010, and 92 km in 2020. Responding to a question relating to their personal vision of the most desirable HEV and its likely characteristics when introduced in the US market in the next decade, the experts predicted their ''vision'' HEV to have attributes very similar to those of the ''top-selling'' HEV. However, the ''vision'' HEV would cost significantly less. The experts projected attributes of three leading batteries for HEVs and projected acceleration times on battery power alone. The resulting battery packs are evaluated, and their initial and replacement costs are analyzed. These and several other opinions are summarized.
Date: July 22, 1999
Creator: Ng, H. K.; Santini, D. J. & Vyas, A. D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of tripled fuel-economy vehicles

Description: This paper presents estimates of the fill fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of light-duty vehicles with tripled fuel economy (3X vehicles) as currently being developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). Seven engine and fuel combinations were analyzed: reformulated gasoline, methanol, and ethanol in spark-ignition, direct-injection engines; low-sulfur diesel and dimethyl ether in compression-ignition, direct-injection engines; and hydrogen and methanol in fuel-cell vehicles. Results were obtained for three scenarios: a Reference Scenario without PNGVs, a High Market Share Scenario in which PNGVs account for 60% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030, and a Low Market Share Scenario in which PNGVs account for half as many sales by 2030. Under the higher of these two, the fuel-efficiency gain by 3X vehicles translated directly into a nearly 50% reduction in total energy demand, petroleum demand, and carbon dioxide emissions. The combination of fuel substitution and fuel efficiency resulted in substantial reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur oxide, (SO{sub x}), and particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (PM{sub 10}) for most of the engine-fuel combinations examined. The key exceptions were diesel- and ethanol-fueled vehicles for which PM{sub 10} emissions increased.
Date: December 18, 1997
Creator: Mintz, M. M.; Vyas, A. D. & Wang, M. Q.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Minorities and fuel-economy standards: Differences in EPA-test vs in-use fuel economy

Description: A vehicle's in-use or on-the-road fuel economy often differs substantially from the miles-per-gallon estimates developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as part of its emissions certification program. As a result, the certification values are routinely adjusted by a set of correction factors so that the resulting estimates will better reflect in-use experience. Our analysis investigated how well the correction factors replicated the shortfall experience of all household vehicles on the road in 1985 and of those vehicles held by different population groups. Using data from the Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey conducted by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, our analysis showed that fleetwide, the shortfall is larger than the EPA correction factors, and that light trucks are experiencing larger shortfalls than automobiles. Controlling for vehicle age and size class, shortfalls did not appear to differ by population group. However, African-American households appeared to select vehicles with systematically lower fuel economy (both EPA-test and on-the-road) within individual vehicle age and size class categories.
Date: January 1, 1991
Creator: Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D. & Conley, L.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Minorities and fuel-economy standards: Differences in EPA-test vs in-use fuel economy

Description: A vehicle`s in-use or on-the-road fuel economy often differs substantially from the miles-per-gallon estimates developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as part of its emissions certification program. As a result, the certification values are routinely adjusted by a set of correction factors so that the resulting estimates will better reflect in-use experience. Our analysis investigated how well the correction factors replicated the shortfall experience of all household vehicles on the road in 1985 and of those vehicles held by different population groups. Using data from the Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey conducted by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, our analysis showed that fleetwide, the shortfall is larger than the EPA correction factors, and that light trucks are experiencing larger shortfalls than automobiles. Controlling for vehicle age and size class, shortfalls did not appear to differ by population group. However, African-American households appeared to select vehicles with systematically lower fuel economy (both EPA-test and on-the-road) within individual vehicle age and size class categories.
Date: December 31, 1991
Creator: Mintz, M. M.; Vyas, A. D. & Conley, L. A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Potential for Energy Efficiency Improvement Beyond the Light-Duty-Vehicle Sector

Description: Considerable research has focused on energy efficiency and fuel substitution options for light-duty vehicles, while much less attention has been given to medium- and heavy-duty trucks, buses, aircraft, marine vessels, trains, pipeline, and off-road equipment. This report brings together the salient findings from an extensive review of literature on future energy efficiency options for these non-light-duty modes. Projected activity increases to 2050 are combined with forecasts of overall fuel efficiency improvement potential to estimate the future total petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to current levels. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.
Date: March 1, 2013
Creator: Vyas, A. D.; Patel, D. M. & Bertram, K. M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of major trends in U.S. commercial trucking, 1977-2002.

Description: This report focuses on various major long-range (1977-2002) and intermediate-range (1982-2002) U.S. commercial trucking trends. The primary sources of data for this period were the U.S. Bureau of the Census Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey and Truck Inventory and Use Survey. In addition, selected 1977-2002 data from the U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration and from the U.S. Department of Transportation/Federal Highway Administration's Highway Statistics were used. The report analyzes (1) overall gasoline and diesel fuel consumption patterns by passenger vehicles and trucks and (2) the population changes and fuels used by all commercial truck classes by selected truck type (single unit or combination), during specified time periods, with cargo-hauling commercial trucks given special emphasis. It also assesses trends in selected vehicle miles traveled, gallons per vehicle miles traveled, and gallons per cargo ton-mile traveled, as well as the effect of cargo tons per truck on fuel consumption. In addition, the report examines long-range trends for related factors (e.g., long-haul mileages driven by heavy trucks) and their impacts on reducing fuel consumption per cargo-ton-mile and the relative shares of total commercial fuel use among truck classes. It identifies the effects of these trends on U.S. petroleum consumption. The report also discusses basic engineering design and performance, national legislation on interstate highway construction, national demographic trends (e.g., suburbanization), and changes in U.S. corporate operations requirements, and it highlights their impacts on both the long-distance hauling and shorter-distance urban and suburban delivery markets of the commercial trucking industry.
Date: June 10, 2009
Creator: Bertram, K. M.; Santini, D .J. & Vyas, A. D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of tripled fuel economy vehicles

Description: This paper presents estimates of the full cycle energy and emissions impacts of light-duty vehicles with tripled fuel economy (3X vehicles) as currently being developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). Seven engine and fuel combinations were analyzed: reformulated gasoline, methanol, and ethanol in spark-ignition, direct-injection engines; low sulfur diesel and dimethyl ether in compression-ignition, direct-injection engines; and hydrogen and methanol in fuel-cell vehicles. The fuel efficiency gain by 3X vehicles translated directly into reductions in total energy demand, petroleum demand, and carbon dioxide emissions. The combination of fuel substitution and fuel efficiency resulted in substantial reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds, sulfur oxide, and particulate matter smaller than 10 microns, particularly under the High Market Share Scenario.
Date: December 31, 1998
Creator: Mintz, M.M.; Wang, M.Q. & Vyas, A.D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Batteries for electric drive vehicles: Evaluation of future characteristics and costs through a Delphi study

Description: Uncertainty about future costs and operating attributes of electric drive vehicles (EVs and HEVs) has contributed to considerable debate regarding the market viability of such vehicles. One way to deal with such uncertainty, common to most emerging technologies, is to pool the judgments of experts in the field. Data from a two-stage Delphi study are used to project the future costs and operating characteristics of electric drive vehicles. The experts projected basic vehicle characteristics for EVs and HEVs for the period 2000-2020. They projected the mean EV range at 179 km in 2000, 270 km in 2010, and 358 km in 2020. The mean HEV range on battery power was projected as 145 km in 2000, 212 km in 2010, and 244 km in 2020. Experts` opinions on 10 battery technologies are analyzed and characteristics of initial battery packs for the mean power requirements are presented. A procedure to compute the cost of replacement battery packs is described, and the resulting replacement costs are presented. Projected vehicle purchase prices and fuel and maintenance costs are also presented. The vehicle purchase price and curb weight predictions would be difficult to achieve with the mean battery characteristics. With the battery replacement costs added to the fuel and maintenance costs, the conventional ICE vehicle is projected to have a clear advantage over electric drive vehicles through the projection period.
Date: July 1, 1997
Creator: Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Anderson, J.L. & Santini, D.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Electric and hybrid electric vehicles: A technology assessment based on a two-stage Delphi study

Description: To address the uncertainty regarding future costs and operating attributes of electric and hybrid electric vehicles, a two stage, worldwide Delphi study was conducted. Expert opinions on vehicle attributes, current state of the technology, possible advancements, costs, and market penetration potential were sought for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. Opinions related to such critical components as batteries, electric drive systems, and hybrid vehicle engines, as well as their respective technical and economic viabilities, were also obtained. This report contains descriptions of the survey methodology, analytical approach, and results of the analysis of survey data, together with a summary of other factors that will influence the degree of market success of electric and hybrid electric vehicle technologies. Responses by industry participants, the largest fraction among all the participating groups, are compared with the overall responses. An evaluation of changes between the two Delphi stages is also summarized. An analysis of battery replacement costs for various types is summarized, and variable operating costs for electric and hybrid vehicles are compared with those of conventional vehicles. A market penetration analysis is summarized, in which projected market shares from the survey are compared with predictions of shares on the basis of two market share projection models that use the cost and physical attributes provided by the survey. Finally, projections of market shares beyond the year 2020 are developed by use of constrained logit models of market shares, statistically fitted to the survey data.
Date: December 1, 1997
Creator: Vyas, A.D.; Ng, H.K.; Santini, D.J. & Anderson, J.L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Description: Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.
Date: March 1, 2013
Creator: Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Description: Truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. The current allocation of freight by mode is the product of technologic, economic, and regulatory frameworks, and a variety of factors -- price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, security, and safety -- influence mode. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this report considers how analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt shifts to energy-efficient, low-emission modes. There are substantial opportunities to reduce the energy used for freight transportation, but it will be difficult to shift large volumes from one mode to another without imposing considerable additional costs on businesses and consumers. This report explores federal government actions that could help trigger the shifts in modal shares needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.
Date: March 1, 2013
Creator: Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Beagan, D. F.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Grenzeback, L. R. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Market and energy demand analysis of a US maglev system

Description: High-speed magnetically levitated (maglev) vehicles can provide an alternative mode of transportation for intercity travel, particularly for short- and medium-distance trips between 100 to 600 mi (160 and 960 km). The patterns of growth and the underlying factors affecting that growth In the year 2010 are evaluated to determine the magnitude of US Intercity travel that would become the basis for maglev demand. A methodology that is sensitive to the travelers' socioeconomic attributes was developed to Forecast intercity travel. Travel between 78 major metropolitan areas by air and highway modes is projected, and 12 high-density travel corridors are Identified and selected. The potential for a maglev system to substitute for part or that travel is calculated by using a model that estimates the extent of diversion from highway and air to maglev. Energy demand is estimated on the basis of energy usage during acceleration and cruise phases for each corridor and corridor connections.
Date: January 1, 1993
Creator: Vyas, A.D. & Rote, D.M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department