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Energy and water in the Great Lakes.

Description: The nexus between thermoelectric power production and water use is not uniform across the U.S., but rather differs according to regional physiography, demography, power plant fleet composition, and the transmission network. That is, in some regions water demand for thermoelectric production is relatively small while in other regions it represents the dominate use. The later is the case for the Great Lakes region, which has important implications for the water resources and aquatic ecology of the Great Lakes watershed. This is today, but what about the future? Projected demographic trends, shifting lifestyles, and economic growth coupled with the threat of global climate change and mounting pressure for greater U.S. energy security could have profound effects on the region's energy future. Planning for such an uncertain future is further complicated by the fact that energy and environmental planning and regulatory decisionmaking is largely bifurcated in the region, with environmental and water resource concerns generally taken into account after new energy facilities and technologies have been proposed, or practices are already in place. Based on these confounding needs, the objective of this effort is to develop Great Lakes-specific methods and tools to integrate energy and water resource planning and thereby support the dual goals of smarter energy planning and development, and protection of Great Lakes water resources. Guiding policies for this planning are the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact and the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The desired outcome of integrated energy-water-aquatic resource planning is a more sustainable regional energy mix for the Great Lakes basin ecosystem.
Date: November 1, 2011
Creator: Tidwell, Vincent Carroll
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Communication with U.S. federal decision makers : a primer with notes on the use of computer models as a means of communication.

Description: This document outlines ways to more effectively communicate with U.S. Federal decision makers by outlining the structure, authority, and motivations of various Federal groups, how to find the trusted advisors, and how to structure communication. All three branches of Federal governments have decision makers engaged in resolving major policy issues. The Legislative Branch (Congress) negotiates the authority and the resources that can be used by the Executive Branch. The Executive Branch has some latitude in implementation and prioritizing resources. The Judicial Branch resolves disputes. The goal of all decision makers is to choose and implement the option that best fits the needs and wants of the community. However, understanding the risk of technical, political and/or financial infeasibility and possible unintended consequences is extremely difficult. Primarily, decision makers are supported in their deliberations by trusted advisors who engage in the analysis of options as well as the day-to-day tasks associated with multi-party negotiations. In the best case, the trusted advisors use many sources of information to inform the process including the opinion of experts and if possible predictive analysis from which they can evaluate the projected consequences of their decisions. The paper covers the following: (1) Understanding Executive and Legislative decision makers - What can these decision makers do? (2) Finding the target audience - Who are the internal and external trusted advisors? (3) Packaging the message - How do we parse and integrate information, and how do we use computer simulation or models in policy communication?
Date: October 1, 2009
Creator: Webb, Erik Karl & Tidwell, Vincent Carroll
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Nationwide water availability data for energy-water modeling.

Description: The purpose of this effort is to explore where the availability of water could be a limiting factor in the siting of new electric power generation. To support this analysis, water availability is mapped at the county level for the conterminous United States (3109 counties). Five water sources are individually considered, including unappropriated surface water, unappropriated groundwater, appropriated water (western U.S. only), municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater. Also mapped is projected growth in non-thermoelectric consumptive water demand to 2035. Finally, the water availability metrics are accompanied by estimated costs associated with utilizing that particular supply of water. Ultimately these data sets are being developed for use in the National Renewable Energy Laboratories' (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, designed to investigate the likely deployment of new energy installations in the U.S., subject to a number of constraints, particularly water.
Date: November 1, 2013
Creator: Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Zemlick, Katie M. & Klise, Geoffrey Taylor
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Biofuel impacts on water.

Description: Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Global Energy Systems team conducted a joint biofuels systems analysis project from March to November 2008. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels. 90 billion gallons of ethanol (the energy equivalent of approximately 60 billion gallons of gasoline) per year by 2030 was chosen as the book-end target to understand an aggressive deployment. Since previous studies have addressed the potential of biomass but not the supply chain rollout needed to achieve large production targets, the focus of this study was on a comprehensive systems understanding the evolution of the full supply chain and key interdependencies over time. The supply chain components examined in this study included agricultural land use changes, production of biomass feedstocks, storage and transportation of these feedstocks, construction of conversion plants, conversion of feedstocks to ethanol at these plants, transportation of ethanol and blending with gasoline, and distribution to retail outlets. To support this analysis, we developed a 'Seed to Station' system dynamics model (Biofuels Deployment Model - BDM) to explore the feasibility of meeting specified ethanol production targets. The focus of this report is water and its linkage to broad scale biofuel deployment.
Date: January 1, 2011
Creator: Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Malczynski, Leonard A. & Sun, Amy Cha-Tien
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Biofuel impacts on water.

Description: Sandia National Laboratories and General Motors Global Energy Systems team conducted a joint biofuels systems analysis project from March to November 2008. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, implications, limitations, and enablers of large-scale production of biofuels. 90 billion gallons of ethanol (the energy equivalent of approximately 60 billion gallons of gasoline) per year by 2030 was chosen as the book-end target to understand an aggressive deployment. Since previous studies have addressed the potential of biomass but not the supply chain rollout needed to achieve large production targets, the focus of this study was on a comprehensive systems understanding the evolution of the full supply chain and key interdependencies over time. The supply chain components examined in this study included agricultural land use changes, production of biomass feedstocks, storage and transportation of these feedstocks, construction of conversion plants, conversion of feedstocks to ethanol at these plants, transportation of ethanol and blending with gasoline, and distribution to retail outlets. To support this analysis, we developed a 'Seed to Station' system dynamics model (Biofuels Deployment Model - BDM) to explore the feasibility of meeting specified ethanol production targets. The focus of this report is water and its linkage to broad scale biofuel deployment.
Date: January 1, 2011
Creator: Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Malczynski, Leonard A. & Sun, Amy Cha-Tien
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy-water analysis of the 10-year WECC transmission planning study cases.

Description: In 2011 the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity embarked on a comprehensive program to assist our Nation's three primary electric interconnections with long term transmission planning. Given the growing concern over water resources in the western U.S. the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) requested assistance with integrating water resource considerations into their broader electric transmission planning. The result is a project with three overarching objectives: (1) Develop an integrated Energy-Water Decision Support System (DSS) that will enable planners in the Western Interconnection to analyze the potential implications of water stress for transmission and resource planning. (2) Pursue the formulation and development of the Energy-Water DSS through a strongly collaborative process between the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), Western Governors Association (WGA), the Western States Water Council (WSWC) and their associated stakeholder teams. (3) Exercise the Energy-Water DSS to investigate water stress implications of the transmission planning scenarios put forward by WECC, WGA, and WSWC. The foundation for the Energy-Water DSS is Sandia National Laboratories Energy-Power-Water Simulation (EPWSim) model (Tidwell et al. 2009). The modeling framework targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. This framework provides an interactive environment to explore trade-offs, and 'best' alternatives among a broad list of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support framework is formulated in a modular architecture, facilitating tailored analyses over different geographical regions and scales (e.g., state, county, watershed, interconnection). An interactive interface allows direct control of the model and access to real-time results displayed as charts, graphs and maps. The framework currently supports modules for calculating water withdrawal and consumption for current and planned electric power generation; projected water demand from competing use sectors; and, surface and groundwater availability. WECC's long range planning is organized according ...
Date: November 1, 2011
Creator: Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Passell, Howard David; Castillo, Cesar & Moreland, Barbara
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling the Gila-San Francisco Basin using system dynamics in support of the 2004 Arizona Water Settlement Act.

Description: Water resource management requires collaborative solutions that cross institutional and political boundaries. This work describes the development and use of a computer-based tool for assessing the impact of additional water allocation from the Gila River and the San Francisco River prescribed in the 2004 Arizona Water Settlements Act. Between 2005 and 2010, Sandia National Laboratories engaged concerned citizens, local water stakeholders, and key federal and state agencies to collaboratively create the Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool. Based on principles of system dynamics, the tool is founded on a hydrologic balance of surface water, groundwater, and their associated coupling between water resources and demands. The tool is fitted with a user interface to facilitate sensitivity studies of various water supply and demand scenarios. The model also projects the consumptive use of water in the region as well as the potential CUFA (Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement which stipulates when and where Arizona Water Settlements Act diversions can be made) diversion over a 26-year horizon. Scenarios are selected to enhance our understanding of the potential human impacts on the rivers ecological health in New Mexico; in particular, different case studies thematic to water conservation, water rights, and minimum flow are tested using the model. The impact on potential CUFA diversions, agricultural consumptive use, and surface water availability are assessed relative to the changes imposed in the scenarios. While it has been difficult to gage the acceptance level from the stakeholders, the technical information that the model provides are valuable for facilitating dialogues in the context of the new settlement.
Date: April 1, 2012
Creator: Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Sun, Amy Cha-Tien; Peplinski, William J. & Klise, Geoffrey Taylor
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Water use and supply concerns for utility-scale solar projects in the Southwestern United States.

Description: As large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities are currently being built and planned for locations in the U.S. with the greatest solar resource potential, an understanding of water use for construction and operations is needed as siting tends to target locations with low natural rainfall and where most existing freshwater is already appropriated. Using methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine water used in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations&maintenance, an estimate of water used over the lifetime at the solar power plant is determined and applied to each watershed in six Southwestern states. Results indicate that that PV systems overall use little water, though construction usage is high compared to O&M water use over the lifetime of the facility. Also noted is a transition being made from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities that will significantly reduce operational water use at these facilities. Using these water use factors, estimates of future water demand for current and planned solar development was made. In efforts to determine where water could be a limiting factor in solar energy development, water availability, cost, and projected future competing demands were mapped for the six Southwestern states. Ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability.
Date: July 1, 2013
Creator: Klise, Geoffrey Taylor; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Reno, Marissa Devan; Moreland, Barbara D.; Zemlick, Katie & Macknick, Jordan
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Designing a water leasing market for the Mimbres River, New Mexico.

Description: The objective of this study is to develop a conceptual framework for establishing water leasing markets in New Mexico using the Mimbres River as a test case. Given the past and growing stress over water in New Mexico and the Mimbres River in particular, this work will develop a mechanism for the short term, efficient, temporary transfer of water from one user to another while avoiding adverse effects on any user not directly involved in the transaction (i.e., third party effects). Toward establishing a water leasing market, five basic tasks were performed, (1) a series of stakeholder meetings were conducted to identify and address concerns and interests of basin residents, (2) several gauges were installed on irrigation ditches to aid in the monitoring and management of water resources in the basin, (3) the hydrologic/market model and decision support interface was extended to include the Middle and Lower reaches of the Mimbres River, (4) experiments were conducted to aid in design of the water leasing market, and (5) a set of rules governing a water leasing market was drafted for future adoption by basin residents and the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer.
Date: April 1, 2013
Creator: Reno-Trujillo, Marissa Devan; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Broadbent, Craig; Brookshire, David; Coursey, Don; Jackson, Charles. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Use of a dynamic simulation model to understand nitrogen cycling in the middle Rio Grande, NM.

Description: Water quality often limits the potential uses of scarce water resources in semiarid and arid regions. To best manage water quality one must understand the sources and sinks of both solutes and water to the river system. Nutrient concentration patterns can identify source and sink locations, but cannot always determine biotic processes that affect nutrient concentrations. Modeling tools can provide insight into these large-scale processes. To address questions about large-scale nitrogen removal in the Middle Rio Grande, NM, we created a system dynamics nitrate model using an existing integrated surface water--groundwater model of the region to evaluate our conceptual models of uptake and denitrification as potential nitrate removal mechanisms. We modeled denitrification in groundwater as a first-order process dependent only on concentration and used a 5% denitrification rate. Uptake was assumed to be proportional to transpiration and was modeled as a percentage of the evapotranspiration calculated within the model multiplied by the nitrate concentration in the water being transpired. We modeled riparian uptake as 90% and agricultural uptake as 50% of the respective evapotranspiration rates. Using these removal rates, our model results suggest that riparian uptake, agricultural uptake and denitrification in groundwater are all needed to produce the observed nitrate concentrations in the groundwater, conveyance channels, and river as well as the seasonal concentration patterns. The model results indicate that a total of 497 metric tons of nitrate-N are removed from the Middle Rio Grande annually. Where river nitrate concentrations are low and there are no large nitrate sources, nitrate behaves nearly conservatively and riparian and agricultural uptake are the most important removal mechanisms. Downstream of a large wastewater nitrate source, denitrification and agricultural uptake were responsible for approximately 90% of the nitrogen removal.
Date: August 1, 2008
Creator: Meixner, Tom (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Oelsner, Gretchen (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ); Brooks, Paul (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ) & Roach, Jesse D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Merging spatially variant physical process models under an optimized systems dynamics framework.

Description: The complexity of water resource issues, its interconnectedness to other systems, and the involvement of competing stakeholders often overwhelm decision-makers and inhibit the creation of clear management strategies. While a range of modeling tools and procedures exist to address these problems, they tend to be case specific and generally emphasize either a quantitative and overly analytic approach or present a qualitative dialogue-based approach lacking the ability to fully explore consequences of different policy decisions. The integration of these two approaches is needed to drive toward final decisions and engender effective outcomes. Given these limitations, the Computer Assisted Dispute Resolution system (CADRe) was developed to aid in stakeholder inclusive resource planning. This modeling and negotiation system uniquely addresses resource concerns by developing a spatially varying system dynamics model as well as innovative global optimization search techniques to maximize outcomes from participatory dialogues. Ultimately, the core system architecture of CADRe also serves as the cornerstone upon which key scientific innovation and challenges can be addressed.
Date: October 1, 2007
Creator: Cain, William O. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pierce, Suzanne A. & Tidwell, Vincent Carroll
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Monitoring stream stage, channel profile, and aqueous conductivity with time domain reflectometry (TDR).

Description: Time domain reflectometry (TDR) operates by propagating a radar frequency electromagnetic pulse down a transmission line while monitoring the reflected signal. As the electromagnetic pulse propagates along the transmission line, it is subject to impedance by the dielectric properties of the media along the transmission line (e.g., air, water, sediment), reflection at dielectric discontinuities (e.g., air-water or water-sediment interface), and attenuation by electrically conductive materials (e.g., salts, clays). Taken together, these characteristics provide a basis for integrated stream monitoring; specifically, concurrent measurement of stream stage, channel profile and aqueous conductivity. Here, we make novel application of TDR within the context of stream monitoring. Efforts toward this goal followed three critical phases. First, a means of extracting the desired stream parameters from measured TDR traces was required. Analysis was complicated by the fact that interface location and aqueous conductivity vary concurrently and multiple interfaces may be present at any time. For this reason a physically based multisection model employing the S11 scatter function and Cole-Cole parameters for dielectric dispersion and loss was developed to analyze acquired TDR traces. Second, we explored the capability of this multisection modeling approach for interpreting TDR data acquired from complex environments, such as encountered in stream monitoring. A series of laboratory tank experiments were performed in which the depth of water, depth of sediment, and conductivity were varied systematically. Comparisons between modeled and independently measured data indicate that TDR measurements can be made with an accuracy of {+-}3.4x10{sup -3} m for sensing the location of an air/water or water/sediment interface and {+-}7.4% of actual for the aqueous conductivity. Third, monitoring stations were sited on the Rio Grande and Paria rivers to evaluate performance of the TDR system under normal field conditions. At the Rio Grande site (near Central Bridge in Albuquerque, New Mexico) continuous monitoring of ...
Date: November 1, 2004
Creator: Brainard, James Robert; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Coplen, Amy K.; Ruby, Douglas Scott; Coombs, Jason R.; Wright, Jerome L. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Decision insight into stakeholder conflict for ERN.

Description: Participatory modeling has become an important tool in facilitating resource decision making and dispute resolution. Approaches to modeling that are commonly used in this context often do not adequately account for important human factors. Current techniques provide insights into how certain human activities and variables affect resource outcomes; however, they do not directly simulate the complex variables that shape how, why, and under what conditions different human agents behave in ways that affect resources and human interactions related to them. Current approaches also do not adequately reveal how the effects of individual decisions scale up to have systemic level effects in complex resource systems. This lack of integration prevents the development of more robust models to support decision making and dispute resolution processes. Development of integrated tools is further hampered by the fact that collection of primary data for decision-making modeling is costly and time consuming. This project seeks to develop a new approach to resource modeling that incorporates both technical and behavioral modeling techniques into a single decision-making architecture. The modeling platform is enhanced by use of traditional and advanced processes and tools for expedited data capture. Specific objectives of the project are: (1) Develop a proof of concept for a new technical approach to resource modeling that combines the computational techniques of system dynamics and agent based modeling, (2) Develop an iterative, participatory modeling process supported with traditional and advance data capture techniques that may be utilized to facilitate decision making, dispute resolution, and collaborative learning processes, and (3) Examine potential applications of this technology and process. The development of this decision support architecture included both the engineering of the technology and the development of a participatory method to build and apply the technology. Stakeholder interaction with the model and associated data capture was facilitated through two very ...
Date: February 1, 2012
Creator: Siirola, John; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Benz, Zachary O.; Stansbury, Melanie; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Turnley, Jessica Glicken (Galisteo Consulting) et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Description: Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.
Date: April 1, 2010
Creator: Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

Description: Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.
Date: October 1, 2009
Creator: Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Description: Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.
Date: April 1, 2010
Creator: Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling the transfer of land and water from agricultural to urban uses in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico.

Description: Social and ecological scientists emphasize that effective natural resource management depends in part on understanding the dynamic relationship between the physical and non-physical process associated with resource consumption. In this case, the physical processes include hydrological, climatological and ecological dynamics, and the non-physical process include social, economic and cultural dynamics among humans who do the resource consumption. This project represents a case study aimed at modeling coupled social and physical processes in a single decision support system. In central New Mexico, individual land use decisions over the past five decades have resulted in the gradual transformation of the Middle Rio Grande Valley from a primarily rural agricultural landscape to a largely urban one. In the arid southwestern U.S., the aggregate impact of individual decisions about land use is uniquely important to understand, because scarce hydrological resources will likely limit the viability of resulting growth and development trajectories. This decision support tool is intended to help planners in the area look forward in their efforts to create a collectively defined 'desired' social landscape in the Middle Rio Grande. Our research question explored the ways in which socio-cultural values impact decisions regarding that landscape and associated land use. Because of the constraints hydrological resources place on land use, we first assumed that water use, as embodied in water rights, was a reasonable surrogate for land use. We thought that modeling the movement of water rights over time and across water source types (surface and ground) would provide planners with insight into the possibilities for certain types of decisions regarding social landscapes, and the impact those same decisions would have on those landscapes. We found that water rights transfer data in New Mexico is too incomplete and inaccurate to use as the basis for the model. Furthermore, because of its lack of accuracy ...
Date: November 1, 2004
Creator: Jarratt, Janet (Valencia County, NM); Passell, Howard David; Kelly, Susan (Utton Transboundary Resources Center, Albuquerque, NM); Malczynski, Leonard A.; Chermak, Janie (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Van Bloeman Waanders, Paul (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM) et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

Description: Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.
Date: October 1, 2012
Creator: Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrated system dynamics toolbox for water resources planning.

Description: Public mediated resource planning is quickly becoming the norm rather than the exception. Unfortunately, supporting tools are lacking that interactively engage the public in the decision-making process and integrate over the myriad values that influence water policy. In the pages of this report we document the first steps toward developing a specialized decision framework to meet this need; specifically, a modular and generic resource-planning ''toolbox''. The technical challenge lies in the integration of the disparate systems of hydrology, ecology, climate, demographics, economics, policy and law, each of which influence the supply and demand for water. Specifically, these systems, their associated processes, and most importantly the constitutive relations that link them must be identified, abstracted, and quantified. For this reason, the toolbox forms a collection of process modules and constitutive relations that the analyst can ''swap'' in and out to model the physical and social systems unique to their problem. This toolbox with all of its modules is developed within the common computational platform of system dynamics linked to a Geographical Information System (GIS). Development of this resource-planning toolbox represents an important foundational element of the proposed interagency center for Computer Aided Dispute Resolution (CADRe). The Center's mission is to manage water conflict through the application of computer-aided collaborative decision-making methods. The Center will promote the use of decision-support technologies within collaborative stakeholder processes to help stakeholders find common ground and create mutually beneficial water management solutions. The Center will also serve to develop new methods and technologies to help federal, state and local water managers find innovative and balanced solutions to the nation's most vexing water problems. The toolbox is an important step toward achieving the technology development goals of this center.
Date: December 1, 2006
Creator: Reno, Marissa Devan; Passell, Howard David; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Peplinski, William J.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Coursey, Don (University of Chicago, Chicago, IL) et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Data collection for cooperative water resources modeling in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, Fort Quitman to the Gulf of Mexico.

Description: Water resource scarcity around the world is driving the need for the development of simulation models that can assist in water resources management. Transboundary water resources are receiving special attention because of the potential for conflict over scarce shared water resources. The Rio Grande/Rio Bravo along the U.S./Mexican border is an example of a scarce, transboundary water resource over which conflict has already begun. The data collection and modeling effort described in this report aims at developing methods for international collaboration, data collection, data integration and modeling for simulating geographically large and diverse international watersheds, with a special focus on the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo. This report describes the basin, and the data collected. This data collection effort was spatially aggregated across five reaches consisting of Fort Quitman to Presidio, the Rio Conchos, Presidio to Amistad Dam, Amistad Dam to Falcon Dam, and Falcon Dam to the Gulf of Mexico. This report represents a nine-month effort made in FY04, during which time the model was not completed.
Date: October 1, 2004
Creator: Passell, Howard David; Pallachula, Kiran (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM); Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Villalobos, Joshua (Texas A&M University); Piccinni, Giovanni (Texas A&M University); Brainard, James Robert et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department