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VISION Model : description of model used to estimate the impact of highway vehicle technologies and fuels on energy use and carbon emissions to 2050.

Description: The VISION model has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide estimates of the potential energy use, oil use, and carbon emission impacts to 2050 of advanced light- and heavy-duty highway vehicle technologies and alternative fuels. DOE supports research of advanced transportation technologies (including fuels) and is frequently asked to provide estimates of the potential impacts of successful market penetration of these technologies, sometimes on a relatively quick-turnaround basis. VISION is a spreadsheet model in Microsoft Excel that can be used to respond rapidly to quick-turnaround requests, as well as for longer-term analyses. It uses vehicle survival and age-dependent usage characteristics to project total light and heavy vehicle stock, total vehicle miles of travel (VMT), and total energy use by technology and fuel type by year, given market penetration and vehicle energy efficiency assumptions developed exogenously. Total carbon emissions for on-highway vehicles by year are also estimated because life-cycle carbon coefficients for various fuels are included in VISION. VISION is not a substitute for the transportation component of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS incorporates a consumer choice model to project market penetration of advanced vehicles and alternative fuels. The projections are made within the context of the entire U.S. economy. However, the NEMS model is difficult to use on a quick-turnaround basis and only makes projections to 2025. VISION complements NEMS with its relative ''user-friendliness'' and by extending the time frame of potential analysis. VISION has been used for a wide variety of purposes. For illustration, we have listed some of its most recent and current uses in Table 1.1. Figures 1.1-1.3 illustrate the results of some of those runs. These graphs are not actual model output, but they are based on model results. The main body of this report ...
Date: February 19, 2004
Creator: Singh, M.; Vyas, A. & Steiner, E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

What futurecar MPG levels and technology will be necessary?

Description: The potential peaking of world conventional oil production and the possible imperative to reduce carbon emissions will put great pressure on vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles, on vehicle buyers to seek them out in the marketplace, and on energy suppliers to develop new fuels and delivery systems. Four cases for stabilizing or reducing light vehicle fuel use, oil use, and/or carbon emissions over the next 50 years are presented. Case 1--Improve mpg so that the fuel use in 2020 is stabilized for the next 30 years. Case 2--Improve mpg so that by 2030 the fuel use is reduced to the 2000 level and is reduced further in subsequent years. Case 3--Case 1 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. Case 4--Case 2 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. The mpg targets for new cars and light trucks require that significant advances be made in developing cost-effective and very efficient vehicle technologies. With the use of alternative fuels that are low in carbon, oil use and carbon emissions can be reduced even further.
Date: March 4, 2002
Creator: Patterson, P.; Steiner, E. & Singh, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Program analysis methodology Office of Transportation Technologies 2003 quality metrics final report.

Description: The purpose of this report is to describe the methodology and results obtained from a continuing DOE Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT) activity to estimate future effects of OTT projects on national energy use, petroleum consumption, criteria emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, and various measures of national income and employment. Assumptions are made about the future costs and characteristics of alternative vehicles and fuels. Models that take into account the value that vehicle buyers place on various vehicle characteristics are used to estimate the market penetration of new vehicle technologies. A different set of assumptions would yield results that are different from what is presented here. Analysis results quantify various benefits including: energy and petroleum reductions, carbon equivalent greenhouse gas emissions, criteria pollutant emissions reductions, and the associated economic impacts on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and jobs. The scope of this report addresses light vehicles including passenger automobiles, Class 1 and 2 trucks, and heavy trucks (Classes 3 through 8). The time period spans the present through the year 2030. All energy savings start from baseline projections of transportation sector energy use obtained from the ''Annual Energy Outlook,'' issued annually by the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (Ref. 1). This analysis is based on conventional vehicle fuel economy and purchase price as designated for the ''Large Car'' in the EIA Annual Energy Outlook, although the other characteristics of the large car and of the other vehicle types have been generated from other sources.
Date: September 12, 2002
Creator: Patterson, P.; Moore, J.; Singh, M. & Steiner, E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department