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DETERMINATION OF RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF NONPROLIFERATION FACTORS

Description: Methodologies to determine the proliferation resistance (PR) of nuclear facilities often rely on either expert elicitation, a resource-intensive approach without easily reproducible results, or numeric evaluations, which can fail to take into account the institutional knowledge and expert experience of the nonproliferation community. In an attempt to bridge the gap and bring the institutional knowledge into numeric evaluations of PR, a survey was conducted of 33 individuals to find the relative importance of a set of 62 nonproliferation factors, subsectioned into groups under the headings of Diversion, Transportation, Transformation, and Weaponization. One third of the respondents were self-described nonproliferation professionals, and the remaining two thirds were from secondary professions related to nonproliferation, such as industrial engineers or policy analysts. The factors were taken from previous work which used multi-attribute utility analysis with uniform weighting of attributes and did not include institutional knowledge. In both expert and non-expert groups, all four headings and the majority of factors had different relative importance at a confidence of 95% (p=0.05). This analysis and survey demonstrates that institutional knowledge can be brought into numeric evaluations of PR, if there is a sufficient investment of resources made prior to the evaluation.
Date: July 1, 2009
Creator: Metcalf, Richard
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

REPORT OF THE WORKSHOP ON NUCLEAR FACILITY DESIGN INFORMATION EXAMINATION AND VERIFICATION FOR SAFEGUARDS

Description: Executive Summary The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) implements nuclear safeguards and verifies countries are compliant with their international nuclear safeguards agreements. One of the key provisions in the safeguards agreement is the requirement that the country provide nuclear facility design and operating information to the IAEA relevant to safeguarding the facility, and at a very early stage. , This provides the opportunity for the IAEA to verify the safeguards-relevant features of the facility and to periodically ensure that those features have not changed. The national authorities (State System of Accounting for and Control of Nuclear Material - SSAC) provide the design information for all facilities within a country to the IAEA. The design information is conveyed using the IAEA’s Design Information Questionnaire (DIQ) and specifies: (1) Identification of the facility’s general character, purpose, capacity, and location; (2) Description of the facility’s layout and nuclear material form, location, and flow; (3) Description of the features relating to nuclear material accounting, containment, and surveillance; and (4) Description of existing and proposed procedures for nuclear material accounting and control, with identification of nuclear material balance areas. The DIQ is updated as required by written addendum. IAEA safeguards inspectors examine and verify this information in design information examination (DIE) and design information verification (DIV) activities to confirm that the facility has been constructed or is being operated as declared by the facility operator and national authorities, and to develop a suitable safeguards approach. Under the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI), the National Nuclear Security Administrations (NNSA) Office of Non-Proliferation and International Security identified the need for more effective and efficient verification of design information by the IAEA for improving international safeguards in the future. Consequently, the NNSA Office of International Regimes and Agreements (NA-243) sponsored a team of U.S. Department of Energy National ...
Date: October 1, 2009
Creator: Metcalf, Richard & Bean, Robert
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Safeguards Envelope Progress FY10

Description: The Safeguards Envelope is a strategy to determine a set of specific operating parameters within which nuclear facilities may operate to maximize safeguards effectiveness without sacrificing safety or plant efficiency. This paper details the additions to the advanced operating techniques that will be applied to real plant process monitoring (PM) data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). Research this year focused on combining disparate pieces of data together to maximize operating time with minimal downtime due to safeguards. A Chi-Square and Croiser's cumulative sum were both included as part of the new analysis. Because of a major issue with the original data, the implementation of the two new tests did not add to the existing set of tests, though limited one-variable optimization made a small increase in detection probability. Additional analysis was performed to determine if prior analysis would have caused a major security or safety operating envelope issue. It was determined that a safety issue would have resulted from the prior research, but that the security may have been increased under certain conditions.
Date: October 1, 2010
Creator: Metcalf, Richard
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

INL Human Resource Development and the Next-Generation Safeguards Initiative

Description: It is the stated goal of the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI) to promote the development of a strengthened nuclear safeguards base, one with the potential to advance the secure and peaceful implementation of nuclear energy world-wide. To meet this goal, the initiative, among other things, has sought to develop a revitalized effort to ensure the continued availability of next generation safeguards professionals. Accordingly, this paper serves to outline the human capital building strategies taken by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in line with the NGSI. Various components are presented in detail, including INL’s efforts directed at university outreach, in particular the laboratory’s summer internship program, along with the development of various innovative training programs and long-term oriented strategies for student professional development. Special highlights include a video training series, developed by INL in cooperation with LLNL and other laboratories, which sought to expose students and entry-level professionals to the concept and practice of international nuclear safeguards.
Date: July 1, 2010
Creator: Gouveia, Fernando & Metcalf, Richard Royce Madison
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

DATA RECOVERY EFFORTS AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY, OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY, AND SAVANNAH RIVER NATIONAL LABORATORY

Description: Abstract was already submitted. Could not find the previous number. Would be fine with attaching/update of old number. Abstract Below: Modern nuclear facilities will have significant process monitoring capability for their operators. These systems will also be used for domestic safeguards applications, which has led to research over new diversion-detection algorithms. Curiously missing from these efforts are verification and validation data sets. A tri-laboratory project to locate the existing data sets and recover their data has yielded three major potential sources of data. The first is recovery of the process monitoring data of the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, which now has a distributable package for algorithm developers. The second data set is extensive sampling and process data from Savannah River National Laboratory’s F- and H-canyon sites. Finally, high fidelity data from the start-up tests at the Barnwell Reprocessing Facility is in recovery. This paper details the data sets and compares their relative attributes.
Date: July 1, 2010
Creator: Metcalf, Richard; Salaymeh, Saleem & Ehinger, Michael
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

DESIGN INFORMATION VERIFICATION FOR NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS

Description: A critical aspect of international safeguards activities performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the verification that facility design and construction (including upgrades and modifications) do not create opportunities for nuclear proliferation. These Design Information Verification activities require that IAEA inspectors compare current and past information about the facility to verify the operator’s declaration of proper use. The actual practice of DIV presents challenges to the inspectors due to the large amount of data generated, concerns about sensitive or proprietary data, the overall complexity of the facility, and the effort required to extract just the safeguards relevant information. Planned and anticipated facilities will (especially in the case of reprocessing plants) be ever larger and increasingly complex, thus exacerbating the challenges. This paper reports the results of a workshop held at the Idaho National Laboratory in March 2009, which considered technologies and methods to address these challenges. The use of 3D Laser Range Finding, Outdoor Visualization System, Gamma-LIDAR, and virtual facility modeling, as well as methods to handle the facility data issues (quantity, sensitivity, and accessibility and portability for the inspector) were presented. The workshop attendees drew conclusions about the use of these techniques with respect to successfully employing them in an operating environment, using a Fuel Conditioning Facility walk-through as a baseline for discussion.
Date: July 1, 2009
Creator: Bean, Robert S.; Metcalf, Richard R. M. & Durst, Phillip C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Safeguards Envelope Progress FY09

Description: The Safeguards Envelope is a strategy to determine a set of specific operating parameters which nuclear facilities may operate within to maximize safeguards effectiveness without sacrificing safety or plant efficiency. This paper details advanced statistical techniques will be applied to real plant process monitoring (PM) data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). As a result of the U.S. having no operating nuclear chemical reprocessing plants, there has been a strong interest in obtaining process monitoring data from the ICPP. The ICPP was shut down in 1996 and a recent effort has been made to retrieve the PM data from storage in a data mining effort. In a simulation based on this data, multi-tank and multi-attribute correlations were tested against synthetic diversion scenarios. Kernel regression smoothing was used to fit a curve to the historical data, and multivariable, residual analysis and cumulative sum techniques set parameters for operating conditions. Diversion scenarios were created and tested, showing improved results when compared with a previous study utilizing only one-variable Z- testing7.
Date: September 1, 2009
Creator: Metcalf, Richard & Bean, Robert
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

SAFEGUARDS ENVELOPE: PREVIOUS WORK AND EXAMPLES

Description: The future expansion of nuclear power will require not just electricity production but fuel cycle facilities such as fuel fabrication and reprocessing plants. As large reprocessing facilities are built in various states, they must be built and operated in a manner to minimize the risk of nuclear proliferation. Process monitoring has returned to the spotlight as an added measure that can increase confidence in the safeguards of special nuclear material (SNM). Process monitoring can be demonstrated to lengthen the allowable inventory period by reducing accountancy requirements, and to reduce the false positive indications. The next logical step is the creation of a Safeguards Envelope, a set of operational parameters and models to maximize anomaly detection and inventory period by process monitoring while minimizing operator impact and false positive rates. A brief example of a rudimentary Safeguards Envelope is presented, and shown to detect synthetic diversions overlaying a measured processing plant data set. This demonstration Safeguards Envelope is shown to increase the confidence that no SNM has been diverted with minimal operator impact, even though it is based on an information sparse environment. While the foundation on which a full Safeguards Envelope can be built has been presented in historical demonstrations of process monitoring, several requirements remain yet unfulfilled. Future work will require reprocessing plant transient models, inclusion of “non-traditional” operating data, and exploration of new methods of identifying subtle events in transient processes.
Date: July 1, 2008
Creator: Metcalf, Richard; Bevill, Aaron; Charlton, William & Bean, Robert
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Safeguards Envelope Progress FY08

Description: The Safeguards Envelope Project met its milestones by creating a rudimentary safeguards envelope, proving the value of the approach on a small scale, and determining the most appropriate path forward. The Idaho Chemical Processing Plant’s large cache of reprocessing process monitoring data, dubbed UBER Data, was recovered and used in the analysis. A probabilistic Z test was used on a Markov Monte Carlo simulation of expected diversion data when compared with normal operating data. The data regarding a fully transient event in a tank was used to create a simple requirement, representative of a safeguards envelope, whose impact was a decrease in operating efficiency by 1.3% but an increase in material balance period of 26%. This approach is operator, state, and international safeguards friendly and should be applied to future reprocessing plants. Future requirements include tank-to-tank correlations in reprocessing facilities, detailed operations impact studies, simulation inclusion, automated optimization, advanced statistics analysis, and multi-attribute utility analysis.
Date: September 1, 2008
Creator: Bean, Robert; Metcalf, Richard & Bevill, Aaron
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Safeguards Envelope: The First Steps

Description: The possibility exists for real time accountancy and assay of nuclear materials as they move through a reprocessing facility. This project aims to establish working parameters and local figures of merit to identify possible diversion in real time with minimal operational impact. Factors such as pH, NOX gas concentration, flow speeds and radiation fields are rarely taken into account in safeguards methodologies and will be included to increase the confidence of location and assay of nuclear materials. An adaptable, real data model is being created of the contactors of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Facility and will be analyzed using the appropriate modeling codes. This model will then be subjected to three, diversion scenarios and a figure of merit methodology will be utilized to create the operational parameters under which these diversion scenarios would be detected. This analysis for figure of merit methodology will include statistical fluctuations, operator error, and a rudimentary analysis of transient conditions. The long term goal of the project includes expansion universally over the plant, methods of detection without requiring access to proprietary information, and an evaluation of the requirements for future figure of merit methodologies.
Date: March 1, 2008
Creator: Metcalf, Richard; Ragusa, Jean & Bean, Robert
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Safeguards Envelope

Description: The Safeguards Envelope is a strategy to determine a set of specific operating parameters within which nuclear facilities may operate to maximize safeguards effectiveness without sacrificing safety or plant efficiency. This paper details advanced statistical techniques that will be applied to real plant process monitoring (PM) data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). In a simulation based on this data, multi-tank and multi-attribute correlations were tested against synthetic diversion scenarios. Kernel regression smoothing was used to fit a curve to the historical data, and multivariable, residual analysis and cumulative sum techniques set parameters for operating conditions. Diversion scenarios were created and tested, showing improved results when compared with a previous study utilizing only one-variable Z-testing. A brief analysis of the impact of the safeguards optimization on the rest of plant efficiency, criticality concerns, and overall requirements is presented.
Date: July 1, 2010
Creator: Cao, Duc & Metcalf, Richard
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Development of an IAEA Training Course for Future U.S. Inspectors

Description: U.S. citizens currently make up only 12% of the positions held in the IAEA’s Department of Safeguards. While the United States has maintained a high level of support for the Agency over the duration of its history, the number of American inspectors currently in the field does not reflect this level of involvement. As a result, the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of International Relations, as part of the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI) mission, has tasked Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to develop a rigorous two week hands-on training program to encourage and operationally acclimatize U.S. Citizens who are interested in applying for IAEA inspector positions using IAEA authorized equipment at INL. Idaho National Laboratory is one-of-a-kind in its ability to train IAEA inspectors by including training at nuclear facilities on site and includes, for example, direct measurement of an active spent fuel storage cooling pond. This accredited course will introduce and train attendees on the major IAEA systems used in collecting nuclear safeguards data and performing safeguards inspections. Unique in the United States, these classes will give attendees direct hands-on training and will address equipment purpose, function, operating principles, application, and troubleshooting, based upon what would be expected of an IAEA Safeguards Inspector in the field and in the office. Upon completion, U.S. applicants will be better qualified to pursue a position in the IAEA Department of Safeguards Operational Divisions. In support, INL has recently established a new laboratory space to house state of the art nuclear safeguards instrumentation. Currently, equipment installed in the laboratory space includes attended systems: 3DLR (3-D Imaging Laser) for design information verification, a Digital Cerenkov Viewing Device for measurement of spent fuel, HM-5 handheld radiation detectors, quantitative neutron and gamma systems; unattended monitoring systems including: NGAM and MiniGRAND radiation systems and a DMOS camera ...
Date: July 1, 2011
Creator: Fitzwater, Savannah Avgerinos; Rynes, Amanda R.; Bracken, David S.; Metcalf, Richard R. M. & West, James D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department