Description: Methodologies to determine the proliferation resistance (PR) of nuclear facilities often rely on either expert elicitation, a resource-intensive approach without easily reproducible results, or numeric evaluations, which can fail to take into account the institutional knowledge and expert experience of the nonproliferation community. In an attempt to bridge the gap and bring the institutional knowledge into numeric evaluations of PR, a survey was conducted of 33 individuals to find the relative importance of a set of 62 nonproliferation factors, subsectioned into groups under the headings of Diversion, Transportation, Transformation, and Weaponization. One third of the respondents were self-described nonproliferation professionals, and the remaining two thirds were from secondary professions related to nonproliferation, such as industrial engineers or policy analysts. The factors were taken from previous work which used multi-attribute utility analysis with uniform weighting of attributes and did not include institutional knowledge. In both expert and non-expert groups, all four headings and the majority of factors had different relative importance at a confidence of 95% (p=0.05). This analysis and survey demonstrates that institutional knowledge can be brought into numeric evaluations of PR, if there is a sufficient investment of resources made prior to the evaluation.
Date: July 1, 2009
Creator: Metcalf, Richard
Item Type: Refine your search to only Article
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