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Opportunities for regional harmonization of appliance standards and l abeling program

Description: The South Asian Regional Initiative for Energy (SARI/Energy) calls for a series of activities to promote Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling (EES&L) of end use appliances in the region. In pursuit of this goal, the project supports several seminars and meetings that bring together policymakers and stakeholders from throughout the region. The purpose of these gatherings is to encourage a dialogue among participants as to the benefits and barriers associated with EES&L programs. In addition, it is the role of the program organizers to provide participants with the technical details necessary to make progress towards effective efficiency programs. One component of the initiative is to encourage the harmonization (alignment) of existing program components, and the pursuit of new programs coordinated at the regional level. In support of this goal, the report provides information aimed at motivating and enabling cooperative activities which will provide concrete benefits to programs in each country, whether well developed, or still in the initial planning stage. It should be emphasized that the underlying objective of the harmonization component of the SARI/Energy project is to increase the potential for success of EES&L programs of all countries involved, and to reduce burdens on manufacturers, exporters and importers in each country. Harmonization ''for it's own sake'' is not desirable, nor is it suggested that policymakers should bring their programs in line with international norms if doing so would present a disadvantage to their own efficiency programs, or to commercial interests within their country. If there is no such disadvantage, however, the program encourages alignment of policies and provides a forum at which this alignment can be pursued. The report covers several main topics, with varying emphasis. First, a general discussion of the motivation for an explicit policy of regional harmonization is given. Next, the current status of existing programs ...
Date: September 1, 2003
Creator: McNeil, Michael A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Future Air Conditioning Energy Consumption in Developing Countriesand what can be done about it: The Potential of Efficiency in theResidential Sector

Description: The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interestto energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of thisproduct, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paperaddresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residentialelectricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent historyhas shown that air conditioner ownership can grow grows more rapidly thaneconomic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percentof urban Chinese households owned an air conditioner; by 2003 this numberrose to 62 percent. The evidence suggests a similar explosion of airconditioner use in many other countries is not far behind. Room airconditioner purchases in India are currently growing at 20 percent peryear, with about half of these purchases attributed to the residentialsector. This paper draws on two distinct methodological elements toassess future residential air conditioner 'business as usual' electricityconsumption by country/region and to consider specific alternative 'highefficiency' scenarios. The first component is an econometric ownershipand use model based on household income, climate and demographicparameters. The second combines ownership forecasts and stock accountingwith geographically specific efficiency scenarios within a uniqueanalysis framework (BUENAS) developed by LBNL. The efficiency scenariomodule considers current efficiency baselines, available technologies,and achievable timelines for development of market transformationprograms, such as minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) andlabeling programs. The result is a detailed set of consumption andemissions scenarios for residential air conditioning.
Date: May 1, 2007
Creator: McNeil, Michael A. & Letschert, Virginie E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Techno-Economic Analysis of Indian Draft Standard Levels for RoomAir Conditioners

Description: The Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) finalized its first set of efficiency standards and labels for room air conditioners in July of 2006. These regulations followed soon after the publication of levels for frost-free refrigerators in the same year. As in the case of refrigerators, the air conditioner program introduces Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) and comparative labels simultaneously, with levels for one to five stars. Also like the refrigerator program, BEE defined several successive program phases of increasing stringency. In support of BEE's refrigerator program, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) produced an analysis of national impacts of standards in collaboration with the Collaborative Labeling and Standards Program (CLASP). That analysis drew on LBNL's experience with standards programs in the United States, as well as many other countries. Subsequently, as part of the process for setting optimal levels for air conditioner regulations, CLASP commissioned LBNL to provide support to BEE in the form of a techno-economic evaluation of air conditioner efficiency technologies. This report describes the methodology and results of this techno-economic evaluation. The analysis consists of three components: (1) Cost effectiveness to consumers of efficiency technologies relative to current baseline. (2) Impacts on the current market from efficiency regulations. (3) National energy and financial impacts. The analysis relied on detailed and up-to-date technical data made available by BEE and industry representatives. Technical parameters were used in conjunction with knowledge about air conditioner use patterns in the residential and commercial sectors, and prevailing marginal electricity prices, in order to give an estimate of per-unit financial impacts. In addition, the overall impact of the program was evaluated by combining unit savings with market forecasts in order to yield national impacts. LBNL presented preliminary results of these analyses in May 2006, at a meeting of BEEs Technical Committee for Air Conditioners. ...
Date: March 1, 2007
Creator: McNeil, Michael A. & Iyer, Maithili
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling diffusion of electrical appliances in the residential sector

Description: This paper presents a methodology for modeling residential appliance uptake as a function of root macroeconomic drivers. The analysis concentrates on four major energy end uses in the residential sector: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and air conditioners. The model employs linear regression analysis to parameterize appliance ownership in terms of household income, urbanization and electrification rates according to a standard binary choice (logistic) function. The underlying household appliance ownership data are gathered from a variety of sources including energy consumption and more general standard of living surveys. These data span a wide range of countries, including many developing countries for which appliance ownership is currently low, but likely to grow significantly over the next decades as a result of economic development. The result is a 'global' parameterization of appliance ownership rates as a function of widely available macroeconomic variables for the four appliances studied, which provides a reliable basis for interpolation where data are not available, and forecasting of ownership rates on a global scale. The main value of this method is to form the foundation of bottom-up energy demand forecasts, project energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and allow for the construction of detailed emissions mitigation scenarios.
Date: November 22, 2009
Creator: McNeil, Michael A. & Letschert, Virginie E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs

Description: This report estimates the global potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 for energy efficiency improvements associated with equipment (appliances, lighting, and HVAC) in buildings by means of energy efficiency standards and labels (EES&L). A consensus has emerged among the world's scientists and many corporate and political leaders regarding the need to address the threat of climate change through emissions mitigation and adaptation. A further consensus has emerged that a central component of these strategies must be focused around energy, which is the primary generator of greenhouse gas emissions. Two important questions result from this consensus: 'what kinds of policies encourage the appropriate transformation to energy efficiency' and 'how much impact can these policies have'? This report aims to contribute to the dialogue surrounding these issues by considering the potential impacts of a single policy type, applied on a global scale. The policy addressed in this report is Energy Efficient Standards and Labeling (EES&L) for energy-consuming equipment, which has now been implemented in over 60 countries. Mandatory energy performance standards are important because they contribute positively to a nation's economy and provide relative certainty about the outcome (both timing and magnitudes). Labels also contribute positively to a nation's economy and importantly increase the awareness of the energy-consuming public. Other policies not analyzed here (utility incentives, tax credits) are complimentary to standards and labels and also contribute in significant ways to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We believe the analysis reported here to be the first systematic attempt to evaluate the potential of savings from EES&L for all countries and for such a large set of products. The goal of the analysis is to provide an assessment that is sufficiently well-quantified and accurate to allow comparison and integration with other strategies under consideration.
Date: June 15, 2008
Creator: McNeil, Michael A; McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie & de la Rue du Can, Stephane
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Refrigerator Efficiency in Ghana: Tailoring an appliance markettransformation program design for Africa

Description: A simple replication of developed country applianceefficiency labels and standards is unlikely to be feasible in Ghana andmany other countries in Africa. Yet by creatively modifying the developedcountry appliance efficiency market transformation model, it should bepossible to achieve dramatic energy use reductions. As was true indeveloped countries in the previous two decades, refrigeration efficiencyimprovements provide the greatest energy savings potential in theresidential electricity sector in Ghana. Although Ghana, like manyAfrican countries may impose standards on imports since Ghana does nothave manufacturing facilities for appliances in country. This approachmay hurt some consumers who patronize a very diverse market of usedappliances imported from Europe. We discuss how meeting the challenges ofthe Ghanaian market will require modification of the usual energyefficiency labeling and standards paradigm. But once a refrigeratormarket transformation is accomplished in Ghana, we estimate an averageenergy savings potential of 550 kWh/refrigerator/year, and a monetarysavings of more than $35/refrigerator/year. We discuss how this modifiedrefrigerator efficiency market transformation may occur in the Ghanaiancontext. If successful, this market transformation is likely to be anexample for many other African countries.
Date: February 28, 2006
Creator: Ben Hagan, Essel; Van Buskirk, Robert; Ofosu-Ahenkorah, Alfred & McNeil, Michael A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Assessment of the Impacts of Standards and Labeling Programs inMexico (four products).

Description: This study analyzes impacts from energy efficiency standards and labeling in Mexico from 1994 through 2005 for four major products: household refrigerators, room air conditioners, three-phase (squirrel cage) induction motors, and clothes washers. It is a retrospective analysis, seeking to assess verified impacts on product efficiency in the Mexican market in the first ten years after standards were implemented. Such an analysis allows the Mexican government to compare actual to originally forecast program benefits. In addition, it provides an extremely valuable benchmark for other countries considering standards, and to the energy policy community as a whole. The methodology for evaluation begins with historical test data taken for a large number of models of each product type between 1994 and 2005. The pre-standard efficiency of models in 1994 is taken as a baseline throughout the analysis. Model efficiency data were provided by an independent certification laboratory (ANCE), which tested products as part of the certification and enforcement mechanism defined by the standards program. Using this data, together with economic and market data provided by both government and private sector sources, the analysis considers several types of national level program impacts. These include: Energy savings; Environmental (emissions) impacts, and Net financial impacts to consumers, manufacturers and utilities. Energy savings impacts are calculated using the same methodology as the original projections, allowing a comparison. Other impacts are calculated using a robust and sophisticated methodology developed by the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas (IIE) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), in a collaboration supported by the Collaborative Labeling and Standards Program (CLASP).
Date: June 12, 2007
Creator: Sanchez, Itha; Pulido, Henry; McNeil, Michael A.; Turiel, Isaac & della Cava, Mirka
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling National Impacts for the Building America Program

Description: In this paper we present a model to estimate the nationalenergy and economic impacts of the Department of Energy Building Americaprogram. The program goal is to improve energy performance in newresidential construction, by working with builders to design andconstruct energy-efficient homes at minimal cost. The model is anadaptation of the method used to calculate the national energy savingsfor appliance energy efficiency standards. The main difference is thatthe key decision here is not the consumer decision to buy anefficienthouse, but rather the builder decision to offer such a house inthe market. The builder decision is treated by developing a number ofscenarios in which the relative importance of first costs vs. energysavings is varied.
Date: June 15, 2006
Creator: Coughlin, Katie M. & McNeil, Michael A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Progress towards Managing Residential Electricity Demand: Impacts of Standards and Labeling for Refrigerators and Air Conditioners in India

Description: The development of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling (EES&L) began in earnest in India in 2001 with the Energy Conservation Act and the establishment of the Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE). The first main residential appliance to be targeted was refrigerators, soon to be followed by room air conditioners. Both of these appliances are of critical importance to India's residential electricity demand. About 15percent of Indian households own a refrigerator, and sales total about 4 million per year, but are growing. At the same time, the Indian refrigerator market has seen a strong trend towards larger and more consumptive frost-free units. Room air conditioners in India have traditionally been sold to commercial sector customers, but an increasing number are going to the residential sector. Room air conditioner sales growth in India peaked in the last few years at 20percent per year. In this paper, we perform an engineering-based analysis using data specific to Indian appliances. We evaluate costs and benefits to residential and commercial sector consumers from increased equipment costs and utility bill savings. The analysis finds that, while the BEE scheme presents net benefits to consumers, there remain opportunities for efficiency improvement that would optimize consumer benefits, according to Life Cycle Cost analysis. Due to the large and growing market for refrigerators and air conditioners in India, we forecast large impacts from the standards and labeling program as scheduled. By 2030, this program, if fully implemented would reduce Indian residential electricity consumption by 55 TWh. Overall savings through 2030 totals 385 TWh. Finally, while efficiency levels have been set for several years for refrigerators, labels and MEPS for these products remain voluntary. We therefore consider the negative impact of this delay of implementation to energy and financial savings achievable by 2030.
Date: May 30, 2009
Creator: McNeil, Michael A. & Iyer, Maithili
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Residential Electricity Demand in China -- Can Efficiency Reverse the Growth?

Description: The time when energy-related carbon emissions come overwhelmingly from developed countries is coming to a close. China has already overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic growth that China has experienced is not expected to slow down significantly in the long term, which implies continued massive growth in energy demand. This paper draws on the extensive expertise from the China Energy Group at LBNL on forecasting energy consumption in China, but adds to it by exploring the dynamics of demand growth for electricity in the residential sector -- and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. This paper forecasts ownership growth of each product using econometric modeling, in combination with historical trends in China. The products considered (refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, washing machines, lighting, standby power, space heaters, and water heating) account for 90percent of household electricity consumption in China. Using this method, we determine the trend and dynamics of demandgrowth and its dependence on macroeconomic drivers at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, we present scenarios for reducing residential consumption through efficiency measures defined at the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, thus allowing for a technologically realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities specifically in the Chinese context.
Date: May 18, 2009
Creator: Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A. & Zhou, Nan
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Assessment of Historic Trend in Mobility and Energy Use in India Transportation Sector Using Bottom-up Approach

Description: Transportation mobility in India has increased significantly in the past decades. From 1970 to 2000, motorized mobility (passenger-km) has risen by 888%, compared with an 88% population growth (Singh,2006). This contributed to many energy and environmental issues, and an energy strategy incorporates efficiency improvement and other measures needs to be designed. Unfortunately, existing energy data do not provide information on driving forces behind energy use and sometime show large inconsistencies. Many previous studies address only a single transportation mode such as passenger road travel; did not include comprehensive data collection or analysis has yet been done, or lack detail on energy demand by each mode and fuel mix. The current study will fill a considerable gap in current efforts, develop a data base on all transport modes including passenger air and water, and freight in order to facilitate the development of energy scenarios and assess significance of technology potential in a global climate change model. An extensive literature review and data collection has been done to establish the database with breakdown of mobility, intensity, distance, and fuel mix of all transportation modes. Energy consumption was estimated and compared with aggregated transport consumption reported in IEA India transportation energy data. Different scenarios were estimated based on different assumptions on freight road mobility. Based on the bottom-up analysis, we estimated that the energy consumption from 1990 to 2000 increased at an annual growth rate of 7% for the mid-range road freight growth case and 12% for the high road freight growth case corresponding to the scenarios in mobility, while the IEA data only shows a 1.7% growth rate in those years.
Date: May 1, 2009
Creator: Zhou, Nan & McNeil, Michael A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

Description: The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.
Date: August 1, 2010
Creator: Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst & McNeil, Michael A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Enduse Global Emissions Mitigation Scenarios (EGEMS): A New Generation of Energy Efficiency Policy Planning Models

Description: This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the coming decades. This is a necessary next step for energy analysts and policy makers in assessment of mitigation potentials. The modelling system developed at LBNL over the past 3 years takes advantage of experience in end use demand and in forecasting markets for energy-consuming equipment, in combination with known technology-based efficiency opportunities and policy types. A particular emphasis has been placed on modelling energy growth in developing countries. Experiences to date include analyses covering individual countries (China and India), end uses (refrigerators and air conditioners) and policy types (standards and labelling). Each of these studies required a particular effort in data collection and model refinement--they share, however, a consistent approach and framework which allows comparison, and forms the foundation of a comprehensive analysis system leading to a roadmap to address the greenhouse gas mitigation targetslikely to be set in the coming years.
Date: May 29, 2009
Creator: McNeil, Michael A.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane & McMahon, James E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards for Residential General Service Lighting in Chile

Description: Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (MEPS) have been chosen as part of Chile's national energy efficiency action plan. As a first MEPS, the Ministry of Energy has decided to focus on a regulation for lighting that would ban the sale of inefficient bulbs, effectively phasing out the use of incandescent lamps. Following major economies such as the US (EISA, 2007) , the EU (Ecodesign, 2009) and Australia (AS/NZS, 2008) who planned a phase out based on minimum efficacy requirements, the Ministry of Energy has undertaken the impact analysis of a MEPS on the residential lighting sector. Fundacion Chile (FC) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) collaborated with the Ministry of Energy and the National Energy Efficiency Program (Programa Pais de Eficiencia Energetica, or PPEE) in order to produce a techno-economic analysis of this future policy measure. LBNL has developed for CLASP (CLASP, 2007) a spreadsheet tool called the Policy Analysis Modeling System (PAMS) that allows for evaluation of costs and benefits at the consumer level but also a wide range of impacts at the national level, such as energy savings, net present value of savings, greenhouse gas (CO2) emission reductions and avoided capacity generation due to a specific policy. Because historically Chile has followed European schemes in energy efficiency programs (test procedures, labelling program definitions), we take the Ecodesign commission regulation No 244/2009 as a starting point when defining our phase out program, which means a tiered phase out based on minimum efficacy per lumen category. The following data were collected in order to perform the techno-economic analysis: (1) Retail prices, efficiency and wattage category in the current market, (2) Usage data (hours of lamp use per day), and (3) Stock data, penetration of efficient lamps in the market. Using these data, PAMS calculates the costs and benefits of efficiency standards ...
Date: June 1, 2011
Creator: Letschert, Virginie E.; McNeil, Michael A.; Leiva Ibanez, Francisco Humberto; Ruiz, Ana Maria; Pavon, Mariana & Hall, Stephen
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in India

Description: This study seeks to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with actionable information towards a road map for reducing energy consumption cost-effectively. We focus on individual end use equipment types (hereafter referred to as appliance groups) that might be the subject of policies - such as labels, energy performance standards, and incentives - to affect market transformation in the short term, and on high-efficiency technology options that are available today. the high efficiency or Business Case scenario is constructed around a model of cost-effective efficiency improvement. Our analysis demonstrates that a significant reduction in energy consumption and emissions is achievable at net negative cost, that is, as a profitable investment for consumers. Net savings are calculated assuming no additional costs to energy consumption such as carbon taxes. Savings relative to the base case as calculated in this way is often referred to as “economic savings potential”. So far, the Indian market has responded favorably to government efficiency initiatives, with Indian manufacturers producing a higher fraction of high-efficiency equipment than before program implementation. This study highlights both the financial benefit and the scope of potential impact for adopting this equipment, all of which is already readily available on the market. The approach of the study is to assess the impact of short-term actions on long-term impacts. “Short-term” market transformation is assumed to occur by 2015, while “long-term” energy demand reduction impacts are assessed in 2030. In the intervening years, most but not all of the equipment studied will turn over completely. The Business Case concentrates on technologies for which cost-effectiveness can be clearly demonstrated.
Date: December 2, 2011
Creator: McNeil, Michael A.; Ke, Jing; Can, Stephane de la Rue du; Letschert, Virginie E. & McMahon, James E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in the United States

Description: This study seeks to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with actionable information towards a road map for reducing energy consumption in the most cost-effective way. A major difference between the current study and some others is that we focus on individual equipment types that might be the subject of policies - such as labels, energy performance standards, and incentives - to affect market transformation in the short term, and on high-efficiency technology options that are available today. The approach of the study is to assess the impact of short-term actions on long-term impacts. “Short term” market transformation is assumed to occur by 2015, while “long-term” energy demand reduction impacts are assessed in 2030. In the intervening years, most but not all of the equipment studied will turn over completely. The 15-year time frame is significant for many products however, indicating that delay of implementation postpones impacts such as net economic savings and mitigation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Such delays would result in putting in place energy-wasting technologies, postponing improvement until the end of their service life, or potentially resulting in expensive investment either in additional energy supplies or in early replacement to achieve future energy or emissions reduction targets.
Date: June 1, 2011
Creator: Bojda, Nicholas; Ke, Jing; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; E. Letschert, Virginie; E. McMahon, James & McNeil, Michael A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook

Description: This report provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis ofenergy consumption in China. It recalibrates official Chinese governmentstatistics by reallocating primary energy into categories more commonlyused in international comparisons. It also provides an analysis of trendsin sectoral energy consumption over the past decades. Finally, itassesses the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020,based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity,availability of energy services, and energy intensities. The followingare some highlights of the study's findings: * A reallocation of sectorenergy consumption from the 2000 official Chinese government statisticsfinds that: * Buildings account for 25 percent of primary energy, insteadof 19 percent * Industry accounts for 61 percent of energy instead of 69percent * Industrial energy made a large and unexpected leap between2000-2005, growing by an astonishing 50 percent in the 3 years between2002 and 2005. * Energy consumption in the iron and steel industry was 40percent higher than predicted * Energy consumption in the cement industrywas 54 percent higher than predicted * Overall energy intensity in theindustrial sector grew between 2000 and 2003. This is largely due tointernal shifts towards the most energy-intensive sub-sectors, an effectwhich more than counterbalances the impact of efficiency increases. *Industry accounted for 63 percent of total primary energy consumption in2005 - it is expected to continue to dominate energy consumption through2020, dropping only to 60 percent by that year. * Even assuming thatgrowth rates in 2005-2020 will return to the levels of 2000-2003,industrial energy will grow from 42 EJ in 2005 to 72 EJ in 2020. * Thepercentage of transport energy used to carry passengers (instead offreight) will double from 37 percent to 52 percent between 2000 to 2020,.Much of this increase is due to private car ownership, which willincrease by a factor of 15 from 5.1 million in 2000 to 77 million in2020. * ...
Date: October 4, 2007
Creator: Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.; Fridley, David; Lin, Jiang; Price,Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Acting Globally: Potential Carbon Emissions Mitigation Impacts from an International Standards and Labelling Program

Description: This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of an international initiative designed to support and promote the development and implementation of appliances standards and labelling programs throughout the world. As part of previous research efforts, LBNL developed the Bottom Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS), an analysis framework that estimates impact potentials of energy efficiency policies on a global scale. In this paper, we apply this framework to an initiative that would result in the successful implementation of programs focused on high priority regions and product types, thus evaluating the potential impacts of such an initiative in terms of electricity savings and carbon mitigation in 2030. In order to model the likely parameters of such a program, we limit impacts to a five year period starting in 2009, but assume that the first 5 years of a program will result in implementation of 'best practice' minimum efficiency performance standards by 2014. The 'high priority' regions considered are: Brazil, China, the European Union,India, Mexico and the United States. The products considered are: refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting (both fluorescent and incandescent), standby power (for consumer electronics) and televisions in the residential sector, and air conditioning and lighting in commercial buildings. In 2020, these regions and enduses account for about 37percent of global residential electricity and 29percent of electricity in commercial buildings. We find that 850Mt of CO2 could be saved in buildings by 2030 compared to the baseline forecast.
Date: May 29, 2009
Creator: McNeil, Michael A; Letschert, Virginie E.; de la Rue du Can, Stephane & Egan, Christine
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in China

Description: This study seeks to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with actionable information towards a road map for reducing energy consumption cost-effectively. We focus on individual end use equipment types (hereafter referred to as appliance groups) that might be the subject of policies - such as labels, energy performance standards, and incentives - to affect market transformation in the short term, and on high-efficiency technology options that are available today. As the study title suggests, the high efficiency or Business Case scenario is constructed around a model of cost-effective efficiency improvement. Our analysis demonstrates that a significant reduction in energy consumption and emissions is achievable at net negative cost, that is, as a profitable investment for consumers. Net savings are calculated assuming no additional costs to energy consumption such as carbon taxes. Savings relative to the base case as calculated in this way is often referred to as 'economic savings potential'. Chinese energy demand has grown dramatically over the last few decades. While heavy industry still plays a dominant role in greenhouse gas emissions, demand from residential and commercial buildings has also seen rapid growth in percentage terms. In the residential sector this growth is driven by internal migration from the countryside to cities. Meanwhile, income in both urban and rural subsectors allows ownership of major appliances. While residences are still relatively small by U.S. or European standards, nearly all households own a refrigerator, a television and an air conditioner. In the future, ownership rates are not expected to grow as much as in other developing countries, because they are already close to saturation. However, the gradual turnover of equipment in the world's largest consumer market provides a huge opportunity for greenhouse gas mitigation. In addition to residences, commercial floor space has expanded rapidly in recent years, and construction continues at ...
Date: August 18, 2011
Creator: McNeil, Michael A.; Bojda, Nicholas; Ke, Jing; Qin, Yining; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Fridley, David et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department