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Probabilistic Approach to Site Characterization: MIU site, Tono Region, Japan

Description: Geostatistical simulation is used to extrapolate data derived from site characterization activities at the MIU site into information describing the three-dimensional distribution of hydraulic conductivity at the site and the uncertainty in the estimates of hydraulic conductivity. This process is demonstrated for six different data sets representing incrementally increasing amounts of characterization data. Short horizontal ranges characterize the spatial variability of both the rock types (facies) and the hydraulic conductivity measurements. For each of the six data sets, 50 geostatistical realizations of the facies and 50 realizations of the hydraulic conductivity are combined to produce 50 final realizations of the hydraulic conductivity distribution. Analysis of these final realizations indicates that the mean hydraulic conductivity value increases with the addition of site characterization data. The average hydraulic conductivity as a function of elevation changes from a uniform profile to a profile showing relatively high hydraulic conductivity values near the top and bottom of the simulation domain. Three-dimensional uncertainty maps show the highest amount of uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity distribution near the top and bottom of the model. These upper and lower areas of high uncertainty are interpreted to be due to the unconformity at the top of the granitic rocks and the Tsukyoshi fault respectively.
Date: February 1, 2001
Creator: MCKENNA, SEAN A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Predictive Modeling of MIU3-MIU2 Interference Tests

Description: The goal of this project is to predict the drawdown that will be observed in specific piezometers placed in the MIU-2 borehole due to pumping at a single location in the MIU-3 borehole. These predictions will be in the form of distributions obtained through multiple forward runs of a well-test model. Specifically, two distributions will be created for each pumping location--piezometer location pair: (1) the distribution of the times to 1.0 meter of drawdown and (2) the distribution of the drawdown predicted after 12 days of pumping at a discharge rates of 25, 50, 75 and 100 l/hr. Each of the steps in the pumping rate lasts for 3 days (259,200 seconds). This report is based on results that were presented at the Tono Geoscience Center on January 27th, 2000, which was approximately one week prior to the beginning of the interference tests. Hydraulic conductivity (K), specific storage (S{sub s}) and the length of the pathway (L{sub p}) are the input parameters to the well-test analysis model. Specific values of these input parameters are uncertain. This parameter uncertainty is accounted for in the modeling by drawing individual parameter values from distributions defined for each input parameter. For the initial set of runs, the fracture system is assumed to behave as an infinite, homogeneous, isotropic aquifer. These assumptions correspond to conceptualizing the aquifer as having Theis behavior and producing radial flow to the pumping well. A second conceptual model is also used in the drawdown calculations. This conceptual model considers that the fracture system may cause groundwater to move to the pumping well in a more linear (non-radial) manner. The effects of this conceptual model on the drawdown values are examined by casting the flow dimension (F{sub d}) of the fracture pathways as an uncertain variable between 1.0 (purely linear flow) ...
Date: February 1, 2001
Creator: MCKENNA, SEAN A. & ROBERTS, RANDALL M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Predictive Modeling of MIU3-MIU2 Interference Tests

Description: The goal of this project is to predict the drawdown that will be observed in specific piezometers placed in the MIU-2 borehole due to pumping at a single location in the MIU-3 borehole. These predictions will be in the form of distributions obtained through multiple forward runs of a well-test model. Specifically, two distributions will be created for each pumping location--piezometer location pair: (1) the distribution of the times to 1.0 meter of drawdown and (2) the distribution of the drawdown predicted after 12 days of pumping at a discharge rates of 25, 50, 75 and 100 l/hr. Each of the steps in the pumping rate lasts for 3 days (259,200 seconds). This report is based on results that were presented at the Tono Geoscience Center on January 27th, 2000, which was approximately one week prior to the beginning of the interference tests. Hydraulic conductivity (K), specific storage (S{sub s}) and the length of the pathway (L{sub p}) are the input parameters to the well-test analysis model. Specific values of these input parameters are uncertain. This parameter uncertainty is accounted for in the modeling by drawing individual parameter values from distributions defined for each input parameter. For the initial set of runs, the fracture system is assumed to behave as an infinite, homogeneous, isotropic aquifer. These assumptions correspond to conceptualizing the aquifer as having Theis behavior and producing radial flow to the pumping well. A second conceptual model is also used in the drawdown calculations. This conceptual model considers that the fracture system may cause groundwater to move to the pumping well in a more linear (non-radial) manner. The effects of this conceptual model on the drawdown values are examined by casting the flow dimension (F{sub d}) of the fracture pathways as an uncertain variable between 1.0 (purely linear flow) ...
Date: February 1, 2001
Creator: MCKENNA,SEAN A. & ROBERTS,RANDALL M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Determining Optimal Location and Numbers of Sample Transects for Characterization of UXO Sites

Description: Previous work on sample design has been focused on constructing designs for samples taken at point locations. Significantly less work has been done on sample design for data collected along transects. A review of approaches to point and transect sampling design shows that transects can be considered as a sequential set of point samples. Any two sampling designs can be compared through using each one to predict the value of the quantity being measured on a fixed reference grid. The quality of a design is quantified in two ways: computing either the sum or the product of the eigenvalues of the variance matrix of the prediction error. An important aspect of this analysis is that the reduction of the mean prediction error variance (MPEV) can be calculated for any proposed sample design, including one with straight and/or meandering transects, prior to taking those samples. This reduction in variance can be used as a ''stopping rule'' to determine when enough transect sampling has been completed on the site. Two approaches for the optimization of the transect locations are presented. The first minimizes the sum of the eigenvalues of the predictive error, and the second minimizes the product of these eigenvalues. Simulated annealing is used to identify transect locations that meet either of these objectives. This algorithm is applied to a hypothetical site to determine the optimal locations of two iterations of meandering transects given a previously existing straight transect. The MPEV calculation is also used on both a hypothetical site and on data collected at the Isleta Pueblo to evaluate its potential as a stopping rule. Results show that three or four rounds of systematic sampling with straight parallel transects covering 30 percent or less of the site, can reduce the initial MPEV by as much as 90 percent. The amount ...
Date: January 1, 2003
Creator: BILISOLY, ROGER L. & MCKENNA, SEAN A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Long-Term Pumping Test at MIU Site, Toki, Japan: Hydrogeological Modeling and Groundwater Flow Simulation

Description: A conceptual model of the MIU site in central Japan, was developed to predict the groundwater system response to pumping. The study area consisted of a fairly large three-dimensional domain, having the size 4.24 x 6 x 3 km{sup 3} with three different geological units, upper and lower fractured zones and a single fault unit. The resulting computational model comprised of 702,204 finite difference cells with variable grid spacing. Both steady-state and transient simulations were completed to evaluate the influence of two different surface boundary conditions: fixed head and no flow. Steady state results were used for particle tracking and also serving as the initial conditions (i.e., starting heads) for the transient simulations. Results of the steady state simulations indicate the significance of the choice of surface (i.e., upper) boundary conditions and its effect on the groundwater flow patterns along the base of the upper fractured zone. Steady state particle tracking results illustrate that all particles exit the top of the model in areas where groundwater discharges to the Hiyoshi and Toki rivers. Particle travel times range from 3.6 x 10{sup 7} sec (i.e., {approx}1.1 years) to 4.4 x 10{sup 10} sec (i.e., {approx}1394 years). For the transient simulations, two pumping zones one above and another one below the fault are considered. For both cases, the pumping period extends for 14 days followed by an additional 36 days of recovery. For the pumping rates used, the maximum drawdown is quite small (ranging from a few centimeters to a few meters) and thus, pumping does not severely impact the groundwater flow system. The range of drawdown values produced by pumping below the fault are generally much less sensitive to the choice of the boundary condition than are the drawdowns resulted from the pumping zone above the fault.
Date: March 1, 2003
Creator: ELIASSI, MEHDI & MCKENNA, SEAN A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Syndrome Surveillance Using Parametric Space-Time Clustering

Description: As demonstrated by the anthrax attack through the United States mail, people infected by the biological agent itself will give the first indication of a bioterror attack. Thus, a distributed information system that can rapidly and efficiently gather and analyze public health data would aid epidemiologists in detecting and characterizing emerging diseases, including bioterror attacks. We propose using clusters of adverse health events in space and time to detect possible bioterror attacks. Space-time clusters can indicate exposure to infectious diseases or localized exposure to toxins. Most space-time clustering approaches require individual patient data. To protect the patient's privacy, we have extended these approaches to aggregated data and have embedded this extension in a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) framework. The real-time and sequential nature of health data makes the SPRT an ideal candidate. The result of space-time clustering gives the statistical significance of a cluster at every location in the surveillance area and can be thought of as a ''health-index'' of the people living in this area. As a surrogate to bioterrorism data, we have experimented with two flu data sets. For both databases, we show that space-time clustering can detect a flu epidemic up to 21 to 28 days earlier than a conventional periodic regression technique. We have also tested using simulated anthrax attack data on top of a respiratory illness diagnostic category. Results show we do very well at detecting an attack as early as the second or third day after infected people start becoming severely symptomatic.
Date: November 1, 2002
Creator: KOCH, MARK W.; MCKENNA, SEAN A. & BILISOLY, ROGER L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

On the late-time behavior of tracer test breakthrough curves

Description: The authors investigated the late-time (asymptotic) behavior of tracer test breakthrough curves (BTCs) with rate-limited mass transfer (e.g., in dual or multi-porosity systems) and found that the late-time concentration, c, is given by the simple expression: c = t{sub ad} (c{sub 0}g {minus} m{sub 0}{partial_derivative}g/{partial_derivative}t), for t >> t{sub ad} and t{sub a} >> t{sub ad} where t{sub ad} is the advection time, c{sub 0} is the initial concentration in the medium, m{sub 0} is the 0th moment of the injection pulse; and t{sub a} is the mean residence time in the immobile domain (i.e., the characteristic mass transfer time). The function g is proportional to the residence time distribution in the immobile domain, the authors tabulate g for many geometries, including several distributed (multirate) models of mass transfer. Using this expression they examine the behavior of late-time concentration for a number of mass transfer models. One key results is that if rate-limited mass transfer causes the BTC to behave as a power-law at late-time (i.e., c {approximately} t{sup {minus}k}), then the underlying density function of rate coefficients must also be a power-law with the form a{sup k{minus}}, as a {r_arrow}0. This is true for both density functions of first-order and diffusion rate coefficients. BTCs with k < 3 persisting to the end of the experiment indicate a mean residence time longer than the experiment and possibly infinite, and also suggest an effective rate coefficient that is either undefined or changes as a function of observation time. They apply their analysis to breakthrough curves from Single-Well Injection-Withdrawal tests at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, New Mexico.
Date: June 12, 2000
Creator: HAGGERTY,ROY; MCKENNA,SEAN A. & MEIGS,LUCY C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of Tracer Tests with Multirate Diffusion Models: Recent Results and Future Directions within the WIPP Project

Description: A series of single-well injection-withdrawal (SWIW) and two-well convergent-flow (TWCF) tracer tests were conducted in the Culebra dolomite at the WIPP site in late 1995 and early 1996. Modeling analyses over the past year have focused on reproducing the observed mass-recovery curves and understanding the basic physical processes controlling tracer transport in SWIW and TWCF tests. To date, specific modeling efforts have focused on five SWIW tests and one TWCF pathway at each of two different locations (H-11 and H-19 hydropads). An inverse parameter-estimation procedure was implemented to model the SWIW and TWCF tests with both traditional and multirate double-porosity formulations. The traditional model assumes a single diffusion rate while the multirate model uses a first-order approximation to model a continuous distribution of diffusion coefficients. Conceptually, the multirate model represents variable matrix block sizes within the Culebra as observed in geologic investigations and also variability in diffusion rates within the matrix blocks as observed with X-ray imaging in the laboratory. Single-rate double-porosity models cannot provide an adequate match to the SWIW data. Multirate double-porosity models provide excellent fits to all five SWIW mass-recovery curves. Models of the TWCF tests show that, at one location, the tracer test can be modeled with both single-rate and multirate double-porosity models. At the other location, only the multi-rate double-porosity model is capable of explaining the test results.
Date: October 1, 1999
Creator: ALTMAN, SUSAN J.; HAGGERTY, ROY; MCKENNA, SEAN A. & MEIGS, LUCY C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department