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Informatics requirements for a restructured competitive electric power industry

Description: The electric power industry in the United States is undergoing a slow but nonetheless dramatic transformation. It is a transformation driven by technology, economics, and politics; one that will move the industry from its traditional mode of centralized system operations and regulated rates guaranteeing long-run cost recovery, to decentralized investment and operational decisionmaking and to customer access to true spot market prices. This transformation will revolutionize the technical, procedural, and informational requirements of the industry. A major milestone in this process occurred on December 20, 1995, when the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approved its long-awaited electric utility industry restructuring decision. The decision directed the three major California investor-owned utilities to reorganize themselves by the beginning of 1998 into a supply pool, at the same time selling up to a half of their thermal generating plants. Generation will be bid into this pool and will be dispatched by an independent system operator. The dispatch could potentially involve bidders not only from California but from throughout western North America and include every conceivable generating technology and scale of operation. At the same time, large customers and aggregated customer groups will be able to contract independently for their supply and the utilities will be required to offer a real-time pricing tariff based on the pool price to all their customers, including residential. In related proceedings concerning competitive wholesale power markets, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has recognized that real-time information flows between buyers and sellers are essential to efficient equitable market operation. The purpose of this meeting was to hold discussions on the information technologies that will be needed in the new, deregulated electric power industry.
Date: August 1, 1996
Creator: Pickle, S.; Marnay, C. & Olken, F.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

Description: This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C. & Richey, R.C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Wind Generation in the Future Competitive California Power Market

Description: The goal of this work is to develop improved methods for assessing the viability of wind generation in competitive electricity markets. The viability of a limited number of possible wind sites is assessed using a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the cost of development, and Elfin, an electric utility production costing and capacity expansion model, to estimate the possible revenues and profits of wind farms at the sites. This approach improves on a simple profitability calculation by using a site-specific development cost calculation and by taking the effect of time varying market prices on revenues into account. The first component of the work is to develop data characterizing wind resources suitable for use in production costing and capacity expansion models, such as Elfin, that are capable of simulating competitive electricity markets. An improved representation of California wind resources is built, using information collected by the California Energy Commission (CE C) in previous site evaluations, and by using a GIS approach to estimating development costs at 36 specific sites. These sites, which have been identified as favorable for wind development, are placed on Digital Elevation Maps (DEMs) and development costs are calculated based on distances to roads and transmission lines. GIS is also used to develop the potential capacity at each site by making use of the physical characteristics of the terrain, such as ridge lengths. In the second part of the effort, using a previously developed algorithm for simulating competitive entry to the California electricity market, the Elfin model is used to gauge the viability of wind farms at the 36 sites. The results of this exercise are forecasts of profitable development levels at each site and the effects of these developments on the electricity system as a whole. Under best guess assumptions, including prohibition of new nuclear and ...
Date: March 1, 1998
Creator: Sezgen, O.; Marnay, C. & Bretz, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Spot pricing of electricity and ancillary services in a competitive California market

Description: Typically, in competitive electricity markets, the vertically integrated utilities that were responsible for ensuring system reliability in their own service territories, or groups of territories, cease to exist. The burden falls to an independent system operator (ISO) to ensure that enough ancillary services (AS) are available for safe, stable, and reliable operation of the grid, typically defined, in part, as compliance with officially approved engineering specifications for minimum levels of AS. In order to characterize the behavior of market participants (generators, retailers, and an ISO) in a competitive electricity market with reliability requirements, spot markets for both electricity and AS are modeled. By assuming that each participant seeks to maximize its wealth and that all markets clear, we solve for the optimal quantities of electricity and AS traded in the spot market by all participants, as well as the market clearing prices for each.
Date: November 1, 2000
Creator: Siddiqui, A.S.; Marnay, C. & Khavkin, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Estimating carbon emissions avoided by electricity generation and efficiency projects: A standardized method (MAGPWR)

Description: This paper describes a standardized method for establishing a multi-project baseline for a power system. The method provides an approximation of the generating sources that are expected to operate on the margin in the future for a given electricity system. It is most suitable for small-scale electricity generation and electricity efficiency improvement projects. It allows estimation of one or more carbon emissions factors that represent the emissions avoided by projects, striking a balance between simplicity of use and the desire for accuracy in granting carbon credits.
Date: July 1, 2000
Creator: Meyers, S.; Marnay, C.; Schumacher, K. & Sathaye, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Power supply expansion and the nuclear option in Poland

Description: Poland is in the process of liberalizing and modernizing its electric power system. Given its heavy reliance on coal and a consequent history of often severe environmental externalities associated with power production, the nature of capacity expansion in Poland has important environmental and social implications. To better understand capacity expansion in Poland, we constructed a data set of the Polish power sector for use with the Elfin capacity expansion planning model. Using Elfin, we derived four scenarios and several sensitivities for new generating capacity construction. These scenarios simulate choices among several generic generating technologies made to achieve the lowest overall net present cost of operating the power system through 2015. We find that natural gas is a highly desirable fuel for future power generation in Poland, but primarily as a peaking resource. As the current system is inflexible and peaking capacity appears to be the most pressing need, this result is not surprising. However, when nuclear power is included as a generation option, natural gas is less desirable than the Polish Power Grid Company (PPGCo) has suggested, and, despite the PPGCo`s claims to the contrary, nuclear power cannot be ruled out in Poland on economic grounds alone. In the unconstrained Elfin scenarios, using PPGCo assumptions, nuclear power is attractive, especially after 2010. The attractiveness of nuclear generation proves sensitive to certain input variables, however, notably fixed operating and maintenance cost, and possible carbon taxes. Moreover, we find that the effectiveness of conservation efforts designed to reduce airborne emissions is limited under scenarios in which nuclear generation is adopted. 23 refs., 11 figs., 5 tabs.
Date: June 1, 1997
Creator: Marnay, C. & Pickle, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Contracts for dispatchable power

Description: Competitive bidding for electric power is maturing. Increasing numbers of utilities are soliciting proposals from private suppliers. The amount of capacity being sought is increasing, and potential suppliers appear to be abundant. Analysis of these developments still remains limited. Evidence on the behavior of this market is scarce and sketchy. The underlying economic principles that are shaping the market have not clearly been articulated. In this report we examine the economics of competitive bidding both empirically and analytically. Previous study of this market has focused on the evaluation criteria specified in Requests for Proposals (RFPs), and highly aggregated summary statistics on participation and results. We continue the examination of RFPs, but also survey the details of long term contracts that have emerged from competitive bidding. Contracts provide a new level of specific detail that has not been previously available. 68 refs., 13 figs., 25 tabs.
Date: October 1, 1990
Creator: Kahn, E.P.; Stoft, S.; Marnay, C. & Berman, D.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Estimating the environmental and economic effects of widespread residential PV adoption using GIS and NEMS

Description: This paper describes a study of the national effects of widespread adoption of grid-connected residential rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. A Geographic Information System (GIS) model is used to estimate potential PV system adoption and PV electricity generation and the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used to estimate the national effects of PV electricity generation. Adoption is assumed to occur if levelized PV system cost is less than the local average retail electricity rate at the country level. An estimate of the current {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} scenario (defined by a 6.5% real interest rate, 30-year loan life, $6{sub 1994}/W system cost, and $4{sub 1994}/month voluntary premium) results in no adoption. Several scenarios designed to stimulate PV adoption are modeled. As an example, if PV system costs are instead assumed to be $3{sub 1994}/W, rooftop systems are found to be cost effective in 16% of detached single-family households in the U.S. by 2015 (assuming full adoption of 4-kW systems), this results in 82.1 TWh of annual PV electricity generation, 170 TWh of avoided electricity transmission, distribution, and generation losses, 6 Mt/a of avoided carbon emissions, 50 kt/a of avoided NOx emissions, and 27.3 GW of avoided electricity generating capacity in place.
Date: October 1, 1997
Creator: Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C. & Mahler, S.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ancillary services market in California

Description: This report includes sections on the following topics: (1) California restructured electricity system overview; (2) Reliability criteria; (3) Design of the California ISO ancillary services market; (4) Operation of ancillary services markets; (5) Ancillary services markets redesign; and (6) Conclusions.
Date: July 1, 1999
Creator: Gomez, T.; Marnay, C.; Siddiqui, A.; Liew, L. & Khavkin, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Transmission grid access and pricing in Norway, Spain, and California: A comparative study

Description: The openness of the transmission grid and the incentives given by transmission pricing form the foundation for retail and wholesale competition in the electricity market. The deregulated markets of Norway, Spain, and California all have introduced retail access and wholesale competition, although with different approaches to pricing of transmission grid services. This paper will briefly describe the three different solutions, and discuss some of their implications. Of the three electricity systems, Norway was the first to open the grid to competition in electricity trade. The Norwegian Energy Law of 1990 introduced open competition to wholesale and retail trade starting January 1991. In Spain, the Electricity Law of 1997 came into force early in 1998. Wholesale and retail markets in California were opened for competition on April 1, 1998, following the passage of Assembly Bill 1890, in August 1996. Introducing competition in electricity markets also implies introducing Third Party Access to the transmission grid. All potential competitors have to be given access to the grid in order to compete, no matter who owns the actual wires. This principle raises several challenges, notably, how to price transmission services. Who is to pay for which transmission services? The Norwegian grid is divided into three levels depending on its function. The transmission grid includes all parts of the national grid having a transmission function, meaning that some lower voltage levels also are included. In Spain, the definition of the transmission grid is similar, including the 400 kV and 220 kV national grid as well as lower voltage installations that could affect transmission operation or generation dispatch. For historic reasons, wholesale electricity transactions in the US are regulated by the federal government through the FERC. However, operations of utility systems within one state fall primarily under state jurisdiction. Because the utility systems in California generally ...
Date: September 1, 1999
Creator: Gronli, H.; Gomez San Ramon, T. & Marnay, C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

Description: The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Date: June 1, 2012
Creator: Hostick, D.; Belzer, D.B.; Hadley, S.W.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C. & Kintner-Meyer, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

An R and D Agenda to enhance electricity system reliability by increasing customer participation in emerging competitive markets

Description: Recent electricity price spikes are painful reminders of the value that meaningful demand-side responses could bring to the restructuring US electricity system. Review of the aggregate offers made by suppliers confirms that even a modest increase demand elasticity could dramatically reduce these extremes in price volatility. We submit that dramatically increased customer participation in these markets to enhance system reliability and reduce price volatility is sorely needed. Indeed, allowing customers to manage their loads in response to system conditions might be thought of as the ultimate reliability resource. Most would agree that meaningful demand-side responses to price are the hallmark of a well-functioning competitive market (Kirby and Kueck 1999). Yet, in today's markets for electricity, little or no such response is evident. In effect, today's markets are incomplete; they represent only half of what a truly competitive market requires. The reason is simple: customers currently do not experience directly the time-varying costs of their consumption decisions. Consequently, they have no incentive to modify these decisions in ways that might enhance system reliability or improve the efficiency of the markets in which electricity is traded. We submit that increased customer participation is a necessary step in the evolution toward more efficient markets for electricity and ancillary services. Toward this end, this paper outlines an agenda for public-interest R&D in support of this objective.
Date: October 1, 2000
Creator: Eto, J.; Marnay, C.; Goldman, C.; Kueck, J.; Kirby, B.; Dagle, J. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department