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Gigabit chips: A case history of a transfer of federal technology

Description: This report discusses the need for industry/government cooperation in developing new semiconductor technology. In order to increase memory density of chips from 1M bit, it is necessary to use a process other than optical lithography for production. The technique considered here is x-ray lithography. Industry is currently found to be unwilling or unable to finance research into this technology. If US industry is to remain competitive in the world semiconductor market, it is concluded that the government must cooperate and support work in this area. 16 refs. (JDH)
Date: January 1, 1987
Creator: Marcuse, W.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Brookhaven integrated energy/economy modeling system and its use in conservation policy analysis

Description: The approach used at BNL to model the impact of the introduction of advanced energy technologies in response to increased energy prices has been to link econometric, process, and input-output models. The econometric model generates growth, employment, productivity, inflation, final demand, and price-determined input-output coefficients for a ten-sector interindustry model. The outputs from the six energy sectors are used to drive a national energy process model which supplies energy prices, fuel mix, and energy capital requirements to the econometric model. The four nonenergy final demands from the econometric model are disaggregated and used with the energy demands from the process model to drive a 110-sector input-output model. The nonenergy coefficients in the input-output model are fixed, but the energy coefficients are variable - reflecting the technologies chosen by the solution of the process model. Coefficients representing advanced-energy-technology production functions have been incorporated in the input-output structure. This approach is briefly described, and three applications of this set of linked models are presented: (1) reports the findings of a study of the effects of various levels of conservation on the rate of growth in GNP and other economic indicators; (2) describes an application of the linked models to an accelerated solar-technology scenario, focusing on the long-run macroeconomic impacts of increased solar utilization; and (3) currently in progress, examines the robustness of two policies (a supply and a demand policy) and their effect on the penetration of renewable technologies across a range of reference cases designed to capture several of the uncertainties faced by decision makers. 63 references.
Date: July 1, 1979
Creator: Groncki, P.J. & Marcuse, W.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Macroeconomic effects of accelerated implementation of renewable energy technologies in the US

Description: The original formulation of the Brookhaven energy system models was directed toward technology assessment for new and competing energy technologies. The Hudson-Jorgenson econometric model was originally formulated to identify the economic impacts of energy futures where energy-use projections departed markedly from historical trends. The two models were married so that the feedback effects of energy and nonenergy demand levels and nonenergy prices generated by the economic model could be reflected in the technology and fuel-mix-selection solutions of the energy model. In turn, the engineering-based energy costs, energy prices, and capital requirements for energy systems characterized in the energy model are used to override the econometric estimates based on historical data in the economic model. Recently, the coupled models have been used to address questions concerning the macroeconomic impacts of accelerating the implementation of renewable energy technologies in the United States. Of particular interest were the scenarios where (1) renewables were included which cost more than conventional alternatives now and in the future, and (2) some renewables that are initially more costly are characterized by a learning curve so that in time their costs come to equal conventional alternatives. A further analysis was done for the first case (renewables always more expensive) under conditions where (1) the incremental costs were paid by the government through deficit financing, and (2) the incremental costs were paid by consumers. This paper presents the formulation of the analysis using the combined energy system - economic model and the results of the study.
Date: February 1, 1980
Creator: Marcuse, W & Groncki, P J
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Validation issues: a view from the trenches

Description: Most papers on model evaluation or assessment dealing with verification and validation discuss means and mechanisms by which outside parties can perform peer review to provide verification and establish the validity of models. Little attention is paid to activities performed by the user-modeling team itself to improve the ability of the model to provide information useful in the decision-making process, and to provide confidence that the information is meaningful. This paper presents a number of case histories describing the authors' experience with this type of model improvement activity, called internal validation. They have been convinced that internal validation schemes should be incorporated in the project description and that they be used in part to answer questions of formulation. They further recommend that modelers incorporate sufficient funding in their project plans to carry out this function.
Date: January 1, 1979
Creator: Marcuse, W.; Pilati, D. & Sparrow, T.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Technology transfer significance of the International Safeguards Project Office

Description: The safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are of major importance to the non-proliferation objectives of the United States of America and other nations of the world. Assurance of safeguards effectiveness is mandatory to continued peaceful use of nuclear power. To enhance the ability of the IAEA to apply safeguards effectively, and to ensure that the IAEA does not lack technical assistance in critical areas, the US Congress has made available a special authorization for a Program for Technical Assistance to IAEA Safeguards (POTAS). This substantial program of technology transfer was initiated in 1976. The United States Departments of State and Energy, the Arms control and Disarmament Agency and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission have each accepted responsibility for parts of the Program for Technical Assistance to IAEA Safeguards. Funding is provided by state through the Foreign Assistance Act. This report provides a discussion of this program.
Date: June 1, 1988
Creator: Marcuse, W. & Waligura, A.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Hierarchical decomposition approach to environmental policy analysis

Description: This paper presents a methodology for environmental analysis that starts with the regional and national models, in this case the Multi-Regional energy System Optimization Model (M-RESOM) and the Brookhaven Energy System Optimization Model (BESOM), used in a mode for solar technology assessment. The linkage from BESOM through the National Long Term Inter-industry and Transactions Model (LTIM), also known as the Hudson-Jorgenson Model, ensures that the effect of energy prices and capital requirements on the economy is properly accounted for. Disaggregation to sectors is made through the Brookhaven Univ. of Illinois input-output model, and the national energy supply, energy demand, and non-energy sectoral outputs are calibrated (used as control totals) for the regional model. The regional model is then used for energy siting through the County Level Electric Facility Siting Model (CLEFS) and as a check on the geographic disaggregation for energy activity through the Office of the Bureau of Economic Research Service (OBERS) projections. By following either of these paths, residuals can be generated either by the National Emissions Data System (NEDS) or by allocating the regional emissions in accordance with the outcome of the siting model. Finally, the emissions now localized at the county level are fed into the emissions transport model that determines the air quality. These can be used with a damage function to determine the health impact of energy generation emissions, and with appropriate coefficients, to determine the health impacts of extraction, transport, and processing.
Date: May 1, 1978
Creator: Marcuse, W
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Solar and geothermal energy utilization n SF-2: a sensitivity analysis

Description: A sensitivity analysis was conducted of the utilization levels for Solar, Geothermal, and Advanced Energy Systems (ASGA) technologies during the 1985-2000 time period. In particular, the sensitivity of the utilization levels was tested with respet to both analytical techniques and to specific parameter assumptions. The sensitivity to analytical techniques was examined insofar as certain criteria were examined to elucidate their importance in determining the level of use of the ASGA technologies. The criteria incorporated consideration of such factors as total cost of the energy system, environmental impacts, and resource use patterns. The parameter assumptions studied included costs of ASGA costs of ASGA technologies, costs of non-renewable resources, and limitations on the use of technologies and resources. (MHR)
Date: April 5, 1977
Creator: Davitian, H.; LaSala, R. & Marcuse, W.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Internalizing the externalities of solar technology: Methodologies for incorporating externalities in the assessment of policy options and technology assessments of solar energy initiatives and R and D programs using Brookhaven models

Description: Internalizing the costs for implementing solar energy may never be, the author says. In the meantime, budget allocation decisions must be made. It is the purpose of this paper to identify capabilities currently in existence at BNL that help to provide answers to the value of increasing the contribution of solar energy. This paper presents several alternative approaches. BNL models that are useful for the economic measurement of energy related environmental damage are NEDS/REPS1 NEDS/REPS; ESNS; PRESTO; and optimization models (M-RESOM, BECOM, SOGEPH, BESOM, DESOM/TESOM/MARICAL). The approaches suggested would be much more useful if they were evaluated by certain criteria. This is the goal of most systems research on internalizing externalities. The methods described provide quantitative measures for the following criteria, although no single method provides all of them: the residuals produced with and without solar; the impact of residuals on life, property, ecosystems, and ambience; the intergenerational effects; the effect of oil imports on security; the depletion of non-renewable resources; the quantification (as far as possible) of externalities; and the appropriate level of aggregration. In most cases in this paper, examples are given. The most common criteria is that the energy demands must be driven by an economic model that in turn is driven by an energy model that produces the energy prices and the fuel mix. Solar technology implementation is particularly dependent on relative prices, economic activity, and energy demand. (MCW)
Date: May 1, 1978
Creator: Marcuse, W
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy reserves. [Summary of reserve estimates and economic supply models for exhaustible resources]

Description: There is an increasing concern about scarcity of the world's remaining natural energy resources and, in particular, the future supply of oil and natural gas. This paper summarizes recent estimates of energy reserves and economic supply models for exhaustible resources. The basic economic theory of resource exhaustion is reviewed, and recent estimates of both discovered and undiscovered energy resources are presented and compared. Domestic and world-wide reserve estimates are presented for crude oil and natural gas liquids, natural gas, coal, and uranium. Economic models projecting supply of these energy forms, given reserve estimates and other pertinent information, are discussed. Finally, a set of recent models which project world oil prices are summarized and their published results compared. The impact of energy conservation efforts on energy supply is also briefly discussed. 53 references.
Date: March 1, 1977
Creator: Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Carhart, S.C. & Marcuse, W.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy modeling and data support for the Electric Power Research Institute. Annual report, July 1977

Description: Progress for the period from July 1, 1976 to June 30, 1977 is reviewed in this second annual report in support of the Energy Modeling and Data Support program for EPRI. Reference Energy Systems were formulated for the base year 1972 and projections developed for the years 1980, 1985, and 2000 for the area serviced by the New York Power Pool. In addition, Brookhaven, EPRI, and the Tennessee Valley Authority have entered into a cooperative effort to develop demand projections for the area serviced by TVA. The RES and associated data will provide a baseline against which TVA can evaluate the effect of substituting alternate technologies and policies for one another. Development of the Dynamic Energy Systems Optimization Model is continuing, with effort this year directed toward better representation of the electrical sector within the model. The model has been reformulated such that the year is divided into three seasons and two daily divisions, thus allowing the model to choose whether a summer or winter peak will occur and better depict the yearly time dependence of demands.
Date: July 1, 1977
Creator: Abilock, H; Beller, M; Cherniavsky, E A; Hermelee, A; Juang, L L & Marcuse, W
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Survey review of models for use in market penetration analysis: utility sector focus

Description: The ultimate benefits of federal expenditures in research and development for new technologies are dependent upon the degree of acceptance of these technologies. Market penetration considerations are central to the problem of quantifying the potential benefits. These benefits are inputs to the selection process of projects competing for finite R and D funds. Market penetration is the gradual acceptance of a new commodity or technology. The Office of Coal utilization is concerned with the specialized area of market penetration of new electric power generation technologies for both replacement and new capacity. The common measure of market penetration is the fraction of the market serviced by the challenging technology for each time point considered. The methodologies for estimating market penetration are divided into three generic classes: integrated energy/economy modeling systems, utility capacity expansion models, and technology substitution models. In general, the integrated energy/economy modeling systems have three advantages: they provide internally consistent macro, energy-economy scenarios, they account for the effect of prices on demand by fuel form, and they explicitly capture the effects of population growth and the level and structure of economic activity on energy demand. A variety of deficiencies appear in most energy-economy systems models. All of the methodologies may be applied at some level to questions of market penetration of new technologies in the utility sector; choice of methods for a particular analysis must be conditioned by the scope of the analysis, data availability, and the relative cost of alternative analysis.
Date: November 1, 1980
Creator: Groncki, P.J.; Kydes, A.S.; Lamontagne, J.; Marcuse, W. & Vinjamuri, G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Utility load management and solar energy. Study background and preliminary market potential analysis

Description: The large-scale use of electrically assisted solar heating and hot water (solar/electric HHW) systems can have a substantial effect on electric utilities. Under some conditions, peak loads may be increased causing electricity generation costs to rise. However, with appropriate control and thermal storage equipment tied to the HHW system, the timing of the delivery of electricity to the HHW system can be controlled so that it is accomplished during those times of the day when utility supply costs are lowest. In this study various load management schemes for these applications are being investigated to determine their effect on the cost of generating the back-up electric power and on the cost of the required control and storage system. Solar/electric HHW systems are compared to electric-only systems for several utilities and several HHW system designs. The issues underlying the study, the methods of investigation, and the results of the first phase of the study are described. In this phase a preliminary analysis of the maximum market potential for night-time precharge electric-only hot water systems in either utilities was conducted. This analysis indicated that if about 20 to 40 percent of the residential customers used these appliances in a load managed mode, the 10 PM--8 AM valley in the utility load curve would be filled. For combined electric heating and hot water, the corresponding fraction is 6 to 12 percent. It is estimated that in each case, roughly twice the number of residential customers could be accommodated in the valley if solar/electric systems were used instead.
Date: January 1, 1978
Creator: Davitian, H; Bright, R N & Marcuse, W
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

MARKAL-MACRO: An overview

Description: MARKAL-MACRO is an experiment in model linkage. This new tool is intended as an improvement over existing methods for energy policy assessment. It is designed specifically for estimating the costs and analyzing alternative technologies and policies proposed for reducing environmental risks such as global climate change or regional air pollution. The greenhouse gas debate illustrates the usefulness of linked energy-economy models. A central issue is the coupling between economic growth, the level of energy demands, and the evolution of an energy system to supply these demands. The debate is often connected with alternative modeling approaches. The competing philosophies may be labeled [open quotes]top-down macroeconomic[close quotes] and [open quotes]bottom-up engineering[close quotes] perspectives. Do macroeconomic models, with their descriptions of effects within the total economy but few technical details on the energy system, tend to overestimate future energy demands Conversely, do engineering models, ignoring feedbacks to the general economy and non-technical market factors but containing rich descriptions of technology options, tend to take too optimistic a view of conservation and the use of renewable energy sources Or is the principal difference that the engineering models ignore new sources of energy demands, and that the macroeconomic models ignore saturation effects for old categories of demands An efficient modeling tool must have the scope and detail to match the width and depth of the policy problem being analyzed. In order to respond to major environmental risks (e.g., the possibility of global climate changes), there must be long-range, fundamental changes in the energy system. For an analysis of these changes and an understanding of their nature, the modeling tool must be able to capture the complex network of relations within the energy system, as well as the opportunities of new or improved technologies.
Date: November 12, 1992
Creator: Hamilton, L.D.; Goldstein, G.A.; Lee, J.; Marcuse, W.; Morris, S.C. (Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)); Manne, A.S. (Stanford Univ., CA (United States)) et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department