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Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

Description: Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Sezgen, O. & Koomey, J.G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

Description: This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C. & Richey, R.C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Magnetic fluorescent ballasts: Market data, market imperfections, and policy success

Description: Many economists have strongly questioned engineering-economic studies aimed at demonstrating anomalously slow diffusion of energy-efficient technology and the benefits of regulations to promote such technology. One argument against such studies is that standard techniques of engineering-economics are either inappropriate for or are routinely misapplied in assessing the performance of the market for energy efficiency. This paper presents engineering-economic evidence on the diffusion of energy efficiency improvements that takes account of such critiques. The authors examine the engineering and economic characteristics of standard and energy-efficient magnetic ballasts for fluorescent lighting. Efficient magnetic ballasts represented an excellent investment for 99% of the commercial building floor stock, and a moderately good investment for 0.7% of the commercial floor stock. Still, these ballasts were only being adopted in the 1980s at a rate commensurate with the enactment of appliance efficiency standards in various states. In this case, there is solid empirical evidence for skepticism about the effectiveness of the market mechanism in promoting cost-effective energy efficiency improvements as well as evidence of the benefits of regulation to counteract this shortcoming.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Sanstad, A.H. & Shown, L.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Efficiency improvements in US Office equipment: Expected policy impacts and uncertainties

Description: This report describes a detailed end-use forecast of office equipment energy use for the US commercial sector. We explore the likely impacts of the US Environmental Protection Agency`s ENERGY STAR office equipment program and the potential impacts of advanced technologies. The ENERGY STAR program encourages manufacturers to voluntarily incorporate power saving features into personal computers, monitors, printers, copiers, and fax machines in exchange for allowing manufacturers to use the EPA ENERGY STAR logo in their advertising campaigns. The Advanced technology case assumes that the most energy efficient current technologies are implemented regardless of cost.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Cramer, M.; Piette, M.A. & Eto, J.H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

Description: In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Sezgen, O. & Koomey, J.G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Interactions between lighting and space conditioning energy use in U.S. commercial buildings

Description: Reductions in lighting energy have secondary effects on cooling and heating energy consumption. In general, lighting energy reductions increase heating and decrease cooling requirements of a building. The net change in a building`s annual energy requirements, however, is difficult to quantify and depends on the building characteristics, operating conditions, and climate. This paper characterizes the effects of lighting/HVAC interactions on the annual heating/cooling requirements of prototypical US commercial buildings through computer simulations using the DOE-2.1E building energy analysis program. Twelve building types of two vintages and five climates are chosen to represent the US commercial building stock. For each combination of building type, vintage, and climate, a prototypical building is simulated with varying lighting power densities, and the resultant changes in heating and cooling loads are recorded. These loads are used together with market information on the saturation of the different HVAC equipment in the commercial buildings to determine the changes i energy use and expenditures for heating and cooling. Results are presented by building type for the US as a whole. Therefore, the data presented in this paper can be utilized to assess the secondary effects of lighting-related federal policies with widespread impacts, like minimum efficiency standards. Generally, in warm climates the interactions will induce monetary savings and in cold climates the interactions will induce monetary penalties. For the commercial building stock in the US, a reduction in lighting energy that is well distributed geographically will induce neither significant savings nor significant penalties from associated changes in HVAC primary energy and energy expenditures.
Date: April 1, 1998
Creator: Sezgen, O. & Koomey, J.G.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Preliminary evaluation of the lifecycle costs and market barriers of reflective pavements

Description: The objective of this study is to evaluate the life cycle costs and market barriers associated with using reflective paving materials in streets and parking lots as a way to reduce the urban heat island effect. We calculated and compared the life cycle costs of conventional asphalt concrete (AC) pavements to those of other existing pavement technologies with higher reflectivity-portland cement concrete (PCC), porous pavements, resin pavements, AC pavements using light-colored chip seals, and AC pavements using light-colored asphalt emulsion additives. We found that for streets and parking lots, PCC can provide a cost-effective alternative to conventional AC when severely damaged pavements must be completely reconstructed. We also found that rehabilitating damaged AC streets and intersections with thin overlays of PCC (ultra-thin white topping) can often provide a cost-effective alternative to standard rehabilitation techniques using conventional AC. Chip sealing is a common maintenance treatment for low-volume streets which, when applied using light-colored chips, could provide a reflective pavement surface. If the incremental cost of using light-colored chips is low, this chip sealing method could also be cost-effective, but the incremental costs of light-colored chips are as of yet uncertain and expected to vary. Porous pavements were found to have higher life cycle costs than conventional AC in parking lots, but several cost-saving features of porous pavements fell outside the boundaries of this study. Resin pavements were found to be only slightly more expensive than conventional AC, but the uncertainties in the cost and performance data were large. The use of light-colored additives in asphalt emulsion seal coats for parking lot pavements was found to be significantly more expensive than conventional AC, reflecting its current niche market of decorative applications. We also proposed two additional approaches to increasing the reflectivity of conventional AC, which we call the chipping and aggregate methods, ...
Date: November 21, 2001
Creator: Ting, M.; Koomey, J.G. & Pomerantz, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

Description: This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E. & Richey, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Energy data sourcebook for the US residential sector

Description: Analysts assessing policies and programs to improve energy efficiency in the residential sector require disparate input data from a variety of sources. This sourcebook, which updates a previous report, compiles these input data into a single location. The data provided include information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment efficiency; historical and current appliance and equipment market shares; appliances and equipment efficiency and sales trends; appliance and equipment efficiency standards; cost vs. efficiency data for appliances and equipment; product lifetime estimates; thermal shell characteristics of buildings; heating and cooling loads; shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings; baseline housing stocks; forecasts of housing starts; and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. This report is the essential sourcebook for policy analysts interested in residential sector energy use. The report can be downloaded from the Web at http://enduse.lbl. gov/Projects/RED.html. Future updates to the report, errata, and related links, will also be posted at this address.
Date: September 1, 1997
Creator: Wenzel, T.P.; Koomey, J.G. & Sanchez, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Technology data characterizing space conditioning in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

Description: In the US, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of space conditioning end uses in terms of specific technologies is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and heating and cooling plants is very large. Second, the properties of the building envelope are an integral part of a building`s HVAC energy consumption characteristics. Third, the characteristics of commercial buildings vary greatly by building type. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. This report describes the process by which the authors collected space-conditioning technology data and then mapped it into the COMMEND 4.0 input format. The data are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Sezgen, O.; Franconi, E.M.; Koomey, J.G.; Greenberg, S.E.; Afzal, A. & Shown, L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Recommended Ventilation Strategies for Energy-Efficient Production Homes

Description: This report evaluates residential ventilation systems for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) ENERGY STAR{reg_sign} Homes program and recommends mechanical ventilation strategies for new, low-infiltration, energy-efficient, single-family, ENERGY STAR production (site-built tract) homes in four climates: cold, mixed (cold and hot), hot humid, and hot arid. Our group in the Energy Analysis Department at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab compared residential ventilation strategies in four climates according to three criteria: total annualized costs (the sum of annualized capital cost and annual operating cost), predominant indoor pressure induced by the ventilation system, and distribution of ventilation air within the home. The mechanical ventilation systems modeled deliver 0.35 air changes per hour continuously, regardless of actual infiltration or occupant window-opening behavior. Based on the assumptions and analysis described in this report, we recommend independently ducted multi-port supply ventilation in all climates except cold because this strategy provides the safety and health benefits of positive indoor pressure as well as the ability to dehumidify and filter ventilation air. In cold climates, we recommend that multi-port supply ventilation be balanced by a single-port exhaust ventilation fan, and that builders offer balanced heat-recovery ventilation to buyers as an optional upgrade. For builders who continue to install forced-air integrated supply ventilation, we recommend ensuring ducts are airtight or in conditioned space, installing a control that automatically operates the forced-air fan 15-20 minutes during each hour that the fan does not operate for heating or cooling, and offering ICM forced-air fans to home buyers as an upgrade.
Date: December 1, 1998
Creator: Roberson, J.; Brown, R.; Koomey, J.; Warner, J. & Greenberg, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Lighting market sourcebook for the US

Description: Throughout the United States, in every sector and building type, lighting is a significant electrical end-use. Based on the many and varied studies of lighting technologies, and experience with programs that promote lighting energy-efficiency, there is a significant amount of cost-effective energy savings to be achieved in the lighting end use. Because of such potential savings, and because consumers most often do not adopt cost-effective lighting technologies on their own, programs and policies are needed to promote their adoption. Characteristics of lighting energy use, as well as the attributes of the lighting marketplace, can significantly affect the national pattern of lighting equipment choice and ownership. Consequently, policy makers who wish to promote energy-efficient lighting technologies and practices must understand the lighting technologies that people use, the ways in which they use them, and marketplace characteristics such as key actors, product mix and availability, price spectrum, and product distribution channels. The purpose of this report is to provide policy-makers with a sourcebook that addresses patterns of lighting energy use as well as data characterizing the marketplace in which lighting technologies are distributed, promoted, and sold.
Date: December 1, 1997
Creator: Vorsatz, D.; Shown, L.; Koomey, J.; Moezzi, M.; Denver, A. & Atkinson, B.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Projected regional impacts of appliance efficiency standards for the U.S. residential sector

Description: Minimum efficiency standards for residential appliances have been implemented in the US for a large number of residential end-uses. This analysis assesses the potential energy, dollar, and carbon impacts of those standards at the state and national levels. In this assessment, the authors use historical and projected shipments of equipment, a detailed stock accounting model, measured and estimated unit energy savings associated with the standards, estimated incremental capital costs, demographic data, and fuel price data at the finest level of geographic disaggregation available. Energy savings from the standards are substantial. Total primary energy savings will peak in 2004 at about 0.7 exajoules/year (1 exajoule = 10{sup 18} joules {approx} 1 quadrillion Btu = 10{sup 15} Btus). Cumulative primary energy savings during the 1990 to 2010 period total 10.6 exajoules. Efficiency standards in the residential sector have been a highly cost-effective policy instrument for promoting energy efficiency. Projected cumulative present-values dollar savings after subtracting out the additional cost of the more efficient equipment are about $33 billion from 1990 to 2010. Average benefit/cost ratios for these standards are about 3.5 for the US as a whole. Projected carbon reductions are approximately 9 million metric tons of carbon/year from 2000 through 2010, an amount roughly equal to 4% of carbon emissions in 1990. Because these standards save energy at a cost less than the price of that energy, the resulting carbon emission reductions are achieved at negative net cost to society. Minimum efficiency standards reduce pollution and save money at the same time.
Date: February 1, 1998
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Mahler, S.A.; Webber, C.A. & McMahon, J.E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Office technology energy use and savings potential in New York. Final report

Description: This report discusses energy use by office equipment in New York State and the energy savings potential of energy-efficient equipment. A model containing equipment densities and energy-use characteristics for major categories of office equipment has been developed. The model specifies power requirements and hours of use for three modes of average operation for each device: active, standby, and suspend. The energy-use intensity for each device is expressed as a function of the average device density (number of units/1,000 sq ft), the hours of operation in each mode, and the average power requirements in each mode. Output includes an estimate of total energy use (GWh) for each device by building type. Three scenarios are developed. First is a business-as-usual efficiency baseline. Second is a future with increased use of power-managed devices projected under the current Energy Star Computers program sponsored by the US EPA. Third is a scenario that examines energy savings from greater use of products that go well beyond the standard Energy Star products. A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore uncertainties in model inputs. The business-as-usual baseline forecast confirms that office equipment energy use has been rising over the past decade, and may continue to increase for the next decade and beyond. Office equipment currently consumes about 2,900 GWh/year in the State of New York. Under the business-as-usual baseline forecast, this load may increase to 3,300 GWh/year by the year 2000, and approximately double again before 2010. Widespread use of power management technologies adopted with the promotion of the Energy Star program could reduce this load growth by about 30% by the year 2000. Use of more advanced energy-efficient technology could reduce total energy use by office equipment to about 1,900 GWh/year in 2010, which is less than current consumption.
Date: June 1995
Creator: Piette, M. A.; Cramer, M.; Eto, J. & Koomey, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department