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Market barriers to energy efficiency: A critical reappraisal of the rationale for public policies to promote energy efficiency

Description: This report reviews current perspectives on market barriers to energy efficiency. Ratepayer-funded utility energy-efficiency programs are likely to change in scope, size, and nature as the deregulation process proceeds; the authors research focuses on understanding to what extent some form of future intervention may be warranted and how they might judge the success of particular interventions, especially those funded by ratepayers. They find that challenges to the existence of market barriers have, for the most part, failed to provide a testable alternative explanation for evidence suggesting that there is a substantial ``efficiency gap`` between a consumer`s actual investments in energy efficiency and those that appear to be in the consumer`s own interest. They then suggest that differences of opinion about the appropriateness of public policies stem not from disputes about whether market barriers exist, but from different perceptions of the magnitude of the barriers, and the efficacy and (possibly unintended) consequences of policies designed to overcome them. They conclude that there are compelling justifications for future energy-efficiency policies. Nevertheless, in order to succeed, they must be based on a sound understanding of the market problems they seek to correct and a realistic assessment of their likely efficacy. This understanding can only emerge from detailed investigations of the current operation of individual markets.
Date: March 1, 1996
Creator: Golove, W.H. & Eto, J.H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Savings from energy efficient windows: Current and future savings from new fenestration technologies in the residential market

Description: Heating and cooling energy lost through windows in the residential sector (estimated at two-thirds of the energy lost through windows in all sectors) currently accounts for 3 percent (or 2.8 quads) of total US energy use, costing over $26 billion annually in energy bills. Installation of energy-efficient windows is acting to reduce the amount of energy lost per unit window area. Installation of more energy efficient windows since 1970 has resulted in an annual savings of approximately 0.6 quads. If all windows utilized existing cost effective energy conserving technologies, then residential window energy losses would amount to less than 0.8 quads, directly saving $18 billion per year in avoided energy costs. The nationwide installation of windows that are now being developed could actually turn this energy loss into a net energy gain. Considering only natural replacement of windows and new construction, appropriate fenestration policies could help realize this potential by reducing annual residential window energy losses to 2.2 quids by the year 2012, despite a growing housing stock.
Date: April 1, 1993
Creator: Frost, K.; Arasteh, D. & Eto, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of PG E's residential end-use metered data to improve electricity demand forecasts

Description: It is generally acknowledged that improvements to end-use load shape and peak demand forecasts for electricity are limited primarily by the absence of reliable end-use data. In this report we analyze recent end-use metered data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company from more than 700 residential customers to develop new inputs for the load shape and peak demand electricity forecasting models used by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California Energy Commission. Hourly load shapes are normalized to facilitate separate accounting (by the models) of annual energy use and the distribution of that energy use over the hours of the day. Cooling electricity consumption by central air-conditioning is represented analytically as a function of climate. Limited analysis of annual energy use, including unit energy consumption (UEC), and of the allocation of energy use to seasons and system peak days, is also presented.
Date: June 1, 1992
Creator: Eto, J.H. & Moezzi, M.M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of Wind Power and Load Data at Multiple Time Scales

Description: In this study we develop and apply new methods of data analysis for high resolution wind power and system load time series, to improve our understanding of how to characterize highly variable wind power output and the correlations between wind power and load. These methods are applied to wind and load data from the ERCOT region, and wind power output from the PJM and NYISO areas. We use a wavelet transform to apply mathematically well-defined operations of smoothing and differencing to the time series data. This approach produces a set of time series of the changes in wind power and load (or ?deltas?), over a range of times scales from a few seconds to approximately one hour. A number of statistical measures of these time series are calculated. We present sample distributions, and devise a method for fitting the empirical distribution shape in the tails. We also evaluate the degree of serial correlation, and linear correlation between wind and load. Our examination of the data shows clearly that the deltas do not follow a Gaussian shape; the distribution is exponential near the center and appears to follow a power law for larger fluctuations. Gaussian distributions are frequently used in modeling studies. These are likely to over-estimate the probability of small to moderate deviations. This in turn may lead to an over-estimation of the additional reserve requirement (hence the cost) for high penetration of wind. The Gaussian assumption provides no meaningful information about the real likelihood of large fluctuations. The possibility of a power law distribution is interesting because it suggests that the distribution shape for of wind power fluctuations may become independent of system size for large enough systems.
Date: December 20, 2010
Creator: Coughlin, Katie & Eto, J.H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Efficiency improvements in US Office equipment: Expected policy impacts and uncertainties

Description: This report describes a detailed end-use forecast of office equipment energy use for the US commercial sector. We explore the likely impacts of the US Environmental Protection Agency`s ENERGY STAR office equipment program and the potential impacts of advanced technologies. The ENERGY STAR program encourages manufacturers to voluntarily incorporate power saving features into personal computers, monitors, printers, copiers, and fax machines in exchange for allowing manufacturers to use the EPA ENERGY STAR logo in their advertising campaigns. The Advanced technology case assumes that the most energy efficient current technologies are implemented regardless of cost.
Date: December 1, 1995
Creator: Koomey, J.G.; Cramer, M.; Piette, M.A. & Eto, J.H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The past, present, and future of U.S. utility demand-side management programs

Description: Demand-side management or DSM refers to active efforts by electric and gas utilities to modify customers` energy use patterns. The experience in the US shows that utilities, when provided with appropriate incentives, can provide a powerful stimulus to energy efficiency in the private sector. This paper describes the range and history of DSM programs offered by US electric utilities, with a focus on the political, economic, and regulatory events that have shaped their evolution. It also describes the changes these programs are undergoing as a result of US electricity industry restructuring. DSM programs began modestly in the 1970s in response to growing concerns about dependence on foreign sources of oil and environmental consequences of electricity generation, especially nuclear power. The foundation for the unique US partnership between government and utility interests can be traced first to the private-ownership structure of the vertically integrated electricity industry and second to the monopoly franchise granted by state regulators. Electricity industry restructuring calls into question both of these basic conditions, and thus the future of utility DSM programs for the public interest. Future policies guiding ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency DSM programs will need to pay close attention to the specific market objectives of the programs and to the balance between public and private interests.
Date: December 1, 1996
Creator: Eto, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency programs in a restructured electricity industry: Issues, options, and unanswered questions

Description: Regulated utilities have, in the past, been responsible for {open_quotes}Public purpose{close_quotes} programs that contribute to the general social good, such as energy-efficiency programs. In several states, continuation of these programs has become a critical issue in forging the consensus required to proceed with restructuring. As a result of reviewing the restructuring process in several states, we expect this trend to continue, but do not believe a single, generic approach can or should be defined. Instead, we expect a variety of solutions based on considerations unique to individual states or regions. To help structure these discussions in states struggling with this issue, we pose a series of questions and describe a range of possible answers: (1) We encourage state public utility commissions and legislatures to provide clear guidance on goals. (2) Close attention to the primary objectives for energy efficiency is important because the objectives influence the choices of programs and activities to be supported. (3) We advocate that states adopt a pragmatic approach to resolving the potentially contentious issue of determining whether or not utilities should continue to have primary responsibility for program administration, management, and design. The approach we propose involves assessing a utility`s past performance, its cur-rent commitment to energy-efficiency activities, and the potential conflicts of interest presented, if the utility retains a central role in administering energy-efficiency programs after restructuring. (4) A state should first assess policy options to mitigate adverse incentives and conflicts of interest in the utility before examining the possibility of having a non-utility entity assume responsibility for designing and managing energy-efficiency activities. (5) If a state does pursue non-utility administration for ratepayer-funded energy-efficiency programs, explicit attention must be paid to governance and accountability issues.
Date: August 1, 1996
Creator: Eto, J.; Goldman, C. & Kito, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Transforming the market for residential windows: design considerations for DOE's Efficient Window Collaborative

Description: Market adoption of recent, commercially available technological advances that improve the energy performance of windows will lead to immediate economic and energy savings benefits to the nation. This paper is a scoping study intended to inform the design of a major DOE initiative to accelerate market adoption of these windows in the residential sector. We describe the structure of the US residential window market and the interests of the various market players. We then briefly review five recent market transformation initiatives. Finally, we summarize our findings in a list of considerations we believe will be important for the DOE's initiative to transform the US residential window market.
Date: August 1, 1998
Creator: Eto, J.; Arasteh, D. & Selkowitz, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Financing end-use solar technologies in a restructured electricity industry: Comparing the cost of public policies

Description: Renewable energy technologies are capital intensive. Successful public policies for promoting renewable energy must address the significant resources needed to finance them. Public policies to support financing for renewable energy technologies must pay special attention to interactions with federal, state, and local taxes. These interactions are important because they can dramatically increase or decrease the effectiveness of a policy, and they determine the total cost of a policy to society as a whole. This report describes a comparative analysis of the cost of public policies to support financing for two end-use solar technologies: residential solar domestic hot water heating (SDHW) and residential rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. The analysis focuses on the cost of the technologies under five different ownership and financing scenarios. Four scenarios involve leasing the technologies to homeowners in return for a payment that is determined by the financing requirements of each form of ownership. For each scenario, the authors examine nine public policies that might be used to lower the cost of these technologies: investment tax credits (federal and state), production tax credits (federal and state), production incentives, low-interest loans, grants (taxable and two types of nontaxable), direct customer payments, property and sales tax reductions, and accelerated depreciation.
Date: September 1, 1997
Creator: Jones, E. & Eto, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Uncertainty in site inspection and tracking database estimates of savings

Description: The authors systematically analyze impact evaluation results of three commercial lighting rebate DSM programs. The research includes (1) analysis of ex ante and ex post estimates of program performance, broken down into critical program parameters: hours of operation, watts saved per measure, and measures installed per site; (2) construction of probability distributions of program performance, both in the aggregate and for these critical program parameters; and (3) use of these analyses and distributions to draw conclusions about the accuracy of savings estimates from a variety of evaluation methods. The analysis suggests that realization rates (a ratio of metered savings estimates to tracking database savings estimates) for the sample of participants they examine are subject to tremendous variability, calling into question the usefulness of a point estimate of the realization rate. Discrepancies in estimates of hours of operation are responsible for most of the uncertainty in the realization rate. Finally, the impact of shorter measure lifetimes on savings estimates suggest that persistence studies should be an evaluation priority.
Date: December 31, 1988
Creator: Sonnenblick, R. & Eto, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A new approach to estimate commercial sector end-use load shapes and energy use intensities

Description: We discuss the application of an end-use load shape estimation technique to develop annual energy use intensities (EUIs) and hourly end-use load shapes (LSs) for commercial buildings in the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) service territory. Results will update inputs for the commercial sector energy and peak demand forecasting models used by PG&E and the California Energy Commission (CEC). EUIs were estimated for 11 building types, up to 10 end uses, 3 fuel types, 2 building vintages, and up to 5 climate regions. The integrated methodology consists of two major parts. The first part is the reconciliation of initial end-use load-shape estimates with measured whole-building load data to produce intermediate EUIs and load shapes, using LBL`s End-use Disaggregation Algorithm, EDA. EDA is a deterministic hourly algorithm that relies on the observed characteristics of the measured hourly whole-building electricity use and disaggregates it into major end-use components. The end-use EUIs developed through the EDA procedure represent a snap-shot of electricity use by building type and end-use for two regions of the PG&E service territory, for the year that disaggregation is performed. In the second part of the methodology, we adjust the EUIs for direct application to forecasting models based on factors such as climatic impacts on space-conditioning EUIs, fuel saturation effects, building and equipment vintage, and price impacts. Core data for the project are detailed on-site surveys for about 800 buildings, mail surveys ({approximately}6000), load research data for over 1000 accounts, and hourly weather data for five climate regions.
Date: August 1, 1994
Creator: Akbari, H.; Eto, J.; Konopacki, S.; Afzal, A.; Heinemeier, K. & Rainer, L.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

DSM shareholder incentives: Current designs and economic theory

Description: This report reviews recent DSM shareholder incentive designs and performance at 10 US utilities identifies opportunities for regulators to improve the design of DSM shareholder incentive mechanisms to increase the procurement of cost-effective DSM resources. We develop six recommendations: (1) apply shared-savings incentives to DSM resource programs; (2) use markup incentives for individual programs only when net benefits are difficult to measure, but are known to be positive; (3) set expected incentive payments based on covering a utility`s {open_quotes}hidden costs,{close_quotes} which include some transitional management and risk-adjusted opportunity costs; (4) use higher marginal incentives rates than are currently found in practice, but limit total incentive payments by adding a fixed charge; (5) mitigate risks to regulators and utilities by lowering marginal incentive rates at high and low performance levels; and (6) use an aggregate incentive mechanism for all DSM resource programs, with limited exceptions (e.g., information programs where markups are more appropriate).
Date: January 1, 1995
Creator: Stoft, S.; Eto, J. & Kito, S.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The national energy requirements of residential windows in the U.S.: Today and tomorrow

Description: This paper describes an end-use analysis of the national energy requirements of US residential window technologies. The authors estimate that the current US stock of 19 billion square feet of residential windows is responsible for 1.7 quadrillion BTUs (or quads) per year of energy use--1.3 quads of heating and 0.4 quads of cooling energy--which represents about 2% of total US energy consumption. They show that national energy use due to windows could be reduced by 25% by the year 2010 through accelerated adoption of currently available, advanced window technologies such as low-e and solar control low-e coatings, vinyl and wood frames, and superwindows. The authors evaluate the economics of the technologies regionally, considering both climatic and energy price variations, and find that the technologies would be cost effective for most consumers.
Date: March 1, 1996
Creator: Frost, K.; Eto, J.; Arasteh, D. & Yazdanian, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

A scoping study on energy-efficiency market transformation by California Utility DSM Programs

Description: Market transformation has emerged as a central policy objective for future publicly-funded energy-efficiency programs in California. California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Decision 95-12-063 calls for public funding to shift to activities designed to transform the energy-efficiency market. The CPUC envisions that funding {open_quotes}would only be needed for specific and limited periods of time to cause the market to be transformed{close_quotes}. At the same time, the CPUC also acknowledges that {open_quotes}there are many definitions of market transformation{close_quotes} ... and does {open_quotes}not attempt to refine those definitions today{close_quotes}. We argue that a definition of market transformation is essential. The literature is now replete with definitions, and an operational definition is needed for the CPUC to decide on which programs should be supported with public funds. The CPUC decision initially indicated a preference for programs that do not provide financial assistance 4-efficiency programs that rely on financial assistance to customers. However, energy customers have traditionally accounted for a substantial portion of California utility`s DSM programs, so the CPUC`s direction to use ratepayer funds to support programs that will transform the market raises critical questions about how to analyze what has happened in order to plan effectively for the future: Which utility energy-efficiency programs, including those that provide financial assistance to customers, have had market transforming effects? To what extent do current regulatory rules and practices encourage or discourage utilities from running programs that are designed to transform the market? Should the rules and programs be modified, and, if so, how, to promote market transformation?
Date: July 1, 1996
Creator: Eto, J.; Prahl, R. & Schlegel, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Grid reliability management tools

Description: To summarize, Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS) is engaged in a multi-year program of public interest R&D to develop and prototype software tools that will enhance system reliability during the transition to competitive markets. The core philosophy embedded in the design of these tools is the recognition that in the future reliability will be provided through market operations, not the decisions of central planners. Embracing this philosophy calls for tools that: (1) Recognize that the game has moved from modeling machine and engineering analysis to simulating markets to understand the impacts on reliability (and vice versa); (2) Provide real-time data and support information transparency toward enhancing the ability of operators and market participants to quickly grasp, analyze, and act effectively on information; (3) Allow operators, in particular, to measure, monitor, assess, and predict both system performance as well as the performance of market participants; and (4) Allow rapid incorporation of the latest sensing, data communication, computing, visualization, and algorithmic techniques and technologies.
Date: October 1, 2000
Creator: Eto, J.; Martinez, C.; Dyer, J. & Budhraja, V.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Integrated estimation of commercial sector end-use load shapes and energy use intensities, Phase 2

Description: This report is comprised of the appendices for report number LBL-- 30401 Part 1 of 2 by the same name. One appendix includes a memorandum with detailed data of end use EUIs and load shapes for small and large office buildings and small and large retail buildings. It includes replacement tables for LBL--27512. Other appendices are the DOE-Z BDL prototype input files, summarizes of LRD, figures and results of load-temperature regressions, and THI matrices for cooling. (BM)
Date: January 1, 1991
Creator: Akbari, H.; Rainer, L. & Eto, J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

CERTS Microgrid Laboratory Test Bed

Description: CERTS Microgrid concept captures the emerging potential of distributed generation using a system approach. CERTS views generation and associated loads as a subsystem or a 'microgrid'. The sources can operate in parallel to the grid or can operate in island, providing UPS services. The system can disconnect from the utility during large events (i.e. faults, voltage collapses), but may also intentionally disconnect when the quality of power from the grid falls below certain standards. CERTS Microgrid concepts were demonstrated at a full-scale test bed built near Columbus, Ohio and operated by American Electric Power. The testing fully confirmed earlier research that had been conducted initially through analytical simulations, then through laboratory emulations, and finally through factory acceptance testing of individual microgrid components. The islanding and resynchronization method met all Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Standard 1547 and power quality requirements. The electrical protection system was able to distinguish between normal and faulted operation. The controls were found to be robust under all conditions, including difficult motor starts and high impedance faults.
Date: June 8, 2010
Creator: Lasseter, R. H.; Eto, J. H.; Schenkman, B.; Stevens, J.; Volkmmer, H.; Klapp, D. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

CERTS Microgrid Laboratory Test Bed

Description: The objective of the CERTS Microgrid Test Bed project was to enhance the ease of integrating energy sources into a microgrid. The project accomplished this objective by developing and demonstrating three advanced techniques, collectively referred to as the CERTS Microgrid concept, that significantly reduce the level of custom field engineering needed to operate microgrids consisting of generating sources less than 100kW. The techniques comprising the CERTS Microgrid concept are: 1 a method for effecting automatic and seamless transitions between grid-connected and islanded modes of operation, islanding the microgrid's load from a disturbance, thereby maintaining a higher level of service, without impacting the integrity of the utility's electrical power grid; 2 an approach to electrical protection within a limited source microgrid that does not depend on high fault currents; and 3 a method for microgrid control that achieves voltage and frequency stability under islanded conditions without requiring high-speed communications between sources.
Date: June 8, 2010
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Evaluation of commercial lighting programs: A DEEP assessment

Description: In this paper, we present key findings from a Database on Energy Efficiency Programs (DEEP) report on commercial lighting programs. In the DEEP report, which is the first in a series, we examine the measured performance of 20 utility-sponsored, demand-side management (DSM), lighting efficiency programs in the commercial and industrial sectors. We assess the performance of the lighting programs based on four measures: the total resource costs of the programs, participation rates, energy savings per participant, and utility costs per participant. At an average cost of 3.9 C/kWh, these programs are judged to be cost-effective when compared to avoided costs in their areas. We critically examine participation rates, energy savings per participant, and utility costs per participant in order to understand precisely what aspects of program performance they measure. Finally, we summarize some of the primary difficulties in collecting DSM data in a consistent and comprehensive fashion, and offer some solutions to this challenging problem.
Date: August 1, 1994
Creator: Vine, E.L.; Eto, J.; Shown, L.; Sonnenblick, R. & Payne, C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Office equipment energy use and trends

Description: Office information technologies are using an increasing amount of energy in commercial buildings. During recent forecasting hearings in California, the office equipment end use has been a major source of differences among forecasts of commercial sector energy use. Not only are there major differences in forecasted load growth resulting from the energy use of office equipment, but there are also differences in interpretations of historical and base-year estimates. Understanding office equipment energy use is particularly important because office equipment is widely believed to be the fastest growing electrical end use in the fastest growing sector. This report describes the development and application of a spreadsheet to estimate current and future energy use by office equipment. We define the term office equipment'' to mean information processing technologies used in buildings. The seven categories of office equipment relate to categories found in our analysis of utility surveys and industry sales reports. These seven categories of equipment are examined for eleven types of commercial buildings.
Date: September 1, 1991
Creator: Piette, M.A.; Eto, J.H. & Harris, J.P.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

An R and D Agenda to enhance electricity system reliability by increasing customer participation in emerging competitive markets

Description: Recent electricity price spikes are painful reminders of the value that meaningful demand-side responses could bring to the restructuring US electricity system. Review of the aggregate offers made by suppliers confirms that even a modest increase demand elasticity could dramatically reduce these extremes in price volatility. We submit that dramatically increased customer participation in these markets to enhance system reliability and reduce price volatility is sorely needed. Indeed, allowing customers to manage their loads in response to system conditions might be thought of as the ultimate reliability resource. Most would agree that meaningful demand-side responses to price are the hallmark of a well-functioning competitive market (Kirby and Kueck 1999). Yet, in today's markets for electricity, little or no such response is evident. In effect, today's markets are incomplete; they represent only half of what a truly competitive market requires. The reason is simple: customers currently do not experience directly the time-varying costs of their consumption decisions. Consequently, they have no incentive to modify these decisions in ways that might enhance system reliability or improve the efficiency of the markets in which electricity is traded. We submit that increased customer participation is a necessary step in the evolution toward more efficient markets for electricity and ancillary services. Toward this end, this paper outlines an agenda for public-interest R&D in support of this objective.
Date: October 1, 2000
Creator: Eto, J.; Marnay, C.; Goldman, C.; Kueck, J.; Kirby, B.; Dagle, J. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Utility DSM Rebates for electronic ballasts: National estimates and assessment of market impact (1992 - 1997)

Description: In this report we present national estimates of utility Demand-Side Management (DSM) rebates for electronic fluorescent lamp ballasts during the period of 1992 - 1997. We then compare these trends with developments in the fluorescent ballast market from 1993 - 1998. The analysis indicates that DSM rebates for electronic ballasts peaked in the mid-1990s and declined sharply in 1996 and 1997. In a parallel trend, electronic ballast sales and market share both increased significantly during 1993 - 1994 and increased more slowly in 1996 -1997.
Date: June 30, 2000
Creator: Busch, C.B.; Atkinson, B.A.; Eto, J.H.; Turiel, I. & McMahon, J.E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department