10 Matching Results

Search Results

Advanced search parameters have been applied.

Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results

Description: The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) model is a bottom-up, market penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of photovoltaics (PV) on residential and commercial rooftops in the continental United States through 2030. NREL developed SolarDS to examine the market competitiveness of PV based on regional solar resources, capital costs, electricity prices, utility rate structures, and federal and local incentives. The model uses the projected financial performance of PV systems to simulate PV adoption for building types and regions then aggregates adoption to state and national levels. The main components of SolarDS include a PV performance simulator, a PV annual revenue calculator, a PV financial performance calculator, a PV market share calculator, and a regional aggregator. The model simulates a variety of installed PV capacity for a range of user-specified input parameters. PV market penetration levels from 15 to 193 GW by 2030 were simulated in preliminary model runs. SolarDS results are primarily driven by three model assumptions: (1) future PV cost reductions, (2) the maximum PV market share assumed for systems with given financial performance, and (3) PV financing parameters and policy-driven assumptions, such as the possible future cost of carbon emissions.
Date: September 1, 2009
Creator: Denholm, P.; Drury, E. & Margolis, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Modeling the U.S. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market

Description: Global rooftop PV markets are growing rapidly, fueled by a combination of declining PV prices and several policy-based incentives. The future growth, and size, of the rooftop market is highly dependent on continued PV cost reductions, financing options, net metering policy, carbon prices and future incentives. Several PV market penetration models, sharing a similar structure and methodology, have been developed over the last decade to quantify the impacts of these factors on market growth. This study uses a geospatially rich, bottom-up, PV market penetration model--the Solar Deployment Systems (SolarDS) model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory--to explore key market and policy-based drivers for residential and commercial rooftop PV markets. The identified drivers include a range of options from traditional incentives, to attractive customer financing options, to net metering and carbon policy.
Date: September 1, 2010
Creator: Drury, E.; Denholm, P. & Margolis, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Impact of Different Economic Performance Metrics on the Perceived Value of Solar Photovoltaics

Description: Photovoltaic (PV) systems are installed by several types of market participants, ranging from residential customers to large-scale project developers and utilities. Each type of market participant frequently uses a different economic performance metric to characterize PV value because they are looking for different types of returns from a PV investment. This report finds that different economic performance metrics frequently show different price thresholds for when a PV investment becomes profitable or attractive. Several project parameters, such as financing terms, can have a significant impact on some metrics [e.g., internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and benefit-to-cost (B/C) ratio] while having a minimal impact on other metrics (e.g., simple payback time). As such, the choice of economic performance metric by different customer types can significantly shape each customer's perception of PV investment value and ultimately their adoption decision.
Date: October 1, 2011
Creator: Drury, E.; Denholm, P. & Margolis, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Sensitivity of Rooftop PV Projections in the SunShot Vision Study to Market Assumptions

Description: The SunShot Vision Study explored the potential growth of solar markets if solar prices decreased by about 75% from 2010 to 2020. The SolarDS model was used to simulate rooftop PV demand for this study, based on several PV market assumptions--future electricity rates, customer access to financing, and others--in addition to the SunShot PV price projections. This paper finds that modeled PV demand is highly sensitive to several non-price market assumptions, particularly PV financing parameters.
Date: January 1, 2013
Creator: Drury, E.; Denholm, P. & Margolis, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Resource Planning Model: An Integrated Resource Planning and Dispatch Tool for Regional Electric Systems

Description: This report introduces a new capacity expansion model, the Resource Planning Model (RPM), with high spatial and temporal resolution that can be used for mid- and long-term scenario planning of regional power systems. Although RPM can be adapted to any geographic region, the report describes an initial version of the model adapted for the power system in Colorado. It presents examples of scenario results from the first version of the model, including an example of a 30%-by-2020 renewable electricity penetration scenario.
Date: January 1, 2013
Creator: Mai, T.; Drury, E.; Eurek, K.; Bodington, N.; Lopez, A. & Perry, A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Grid Modeling for the SunShot Vision Study

Description: This document describes the use of production cost modeling in the SunShot Vision study, including methods used to create the SunShot Vision scenarios, their implementation in the Gridview model, and assumptions regarding transmission system and operation of each generator type. It also describes challenges and limitations of modeling solar generation technologies in production cost models, and suggests methods for improving their representation in current models.
Date: February 1, 2012
Creator: Brinkman, G.; Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Ela, E.; Mai, T.; Margolis, R. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Use of Solar and Wind as a Physical Hedge against Price Variability within a Generation Portfolio

Description: This study provides a framework to explore the potential use and incremental value of small- to large-scale penetration of solar and wind technologies as a physical hedge against the risk and uncertainty of electricity cost on multi-year to multi-decade timescales. Earlier studies characterizing the impacts of adding renewable energy (RE) to portfolios of electricity generators often used a levelized cost of energy or simplified net cash flow approach. In this study, we expand on previous work by demonstrating the use of an 8760 hourly production cost model (PLEXOS) to analyze the incremental impact of solar and wind penetration under a wide range of penetration scenarios for a region in the Western U.S. We do not attempt to 'optimize' the portfolio in any of these cases. Rather we consider different RE penetration scenarios, that might for example result from the implementation of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to explore the dynamics, risk mitigation characteristics and incremental value that RE might add to the system. We also compare the use of RE to alternative mechanisms, such as the use of financial or physical supply contracts to mitigate risk and uncertainty, including consideration of their effectiveness and availability over a variety of timeframes.
Date: August 1, 2013
Creator: Jenkin, T.; Diakov, V.; Drury, E.; Bush, B.; Denholm, P.; Milford, J. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Potential Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Enabling High Renewables Scenarios in the United States

Description: This work describes the analysis of concentrating solar power (CSP) in two studies -- The SunShot Vision Study and the Renewable Electricity Futures Study -- and the potential role of CSP in a future energy mix.
Date: October 1, 2012
Creator: Denholm, P.; Hand, M.; Mai, T.; Margolis, R.; Brinkman, G.; Drury, E. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 2: Renewable Electricity Generation and Storage Technologies

Description: The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Date: June 1, 2012
Creator: Augustine, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.; Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Hall, D.G. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

2008 Solar Technologies Market Report

Description: The focus of this report is the U.S. solar electricity market, including photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of global and U.S. installation trends. Chapter 2 presents production and shipment data, material and supply chain issues, and solar industry employment trends. Chapter 3 presents cost, price, and performance trends. Chapter 4 discusses policy and market drivers such as recently passed federal legislation, state and local policies, and developments in project financing. Chapter 5 provides data on private investment trends and near-term market forecasts. Highlights of this report include: (1) The global PV industry has seen impressive growth rates in cell/module production during the past decade, with a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% and a 5-year CAGR of 56% through 2008. (2) Thin-film PV technologies have grown faster than crystalline silicon over the past 5 years, with a 10-year CAGR of 47% and a 5-year CAGR of 87% for thin-film shipments through 2008. (3) Global installed PV capacity increased by 6.0 GW in 2008, a 152% increase over 2.4 GW installed in 2007. (4) The United States installed 0.34 GW of PV capacity in 2008, a 63% increase over 0.21 GW in 2007. (5) Global average PV module prices dropped 23% from $4.75/W in 1998 to $3.65/W in 2008. (6) Federal legislation, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA, October 2008) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, February 2009), is providing unprecedented levels of support for the U.S. solar industry. (7) In 2008, global private-sector investment in solar energy technology topped $16 billion, including almost $4 billion invested in the United States. (8) Solar PV market forecasts made in early 2009 anticipate global PV production and demand to increase fourfold ...
Date: January 1, 2010
Creator: Price, S.; Margolis, R.; Barbose, G.; Bartlett, J.; Cory, K.; Couture, T. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department