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Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

Description: This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling app… more
Date: June 1, 2009
Creator: Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J. & Thompson, Sandra E.
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
open access

Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in the BPA Control Area

Description: This report investigated the uncertainties with the operations of the power system and their contributions to tail events, especially under high penetration of wind. A Bayesian network model is established to quantify the impact of these uncertainties on system imbalance. The framework is presented for a decision support tool, which can help system operators better estimate the need for balancing reserves and prepare for tail events.
Date: October 31, 2010
Creator: Lu, Shuai; Brothers, Alan J.; McKinstry, Craig A.; Jin, Shuangshuang & Makarov, Yuri V.
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
open access

Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in BPA Control Area: Task 2 Report

Description: Task report detailing low probability tail event analysis and mitigation in BPA control area. Tail event refers to the situation in a power system when unfavorable forecast errors of load and wind are superposed onto fast load and wind ramps, or non-wind generators falling short of scheduled output, causing the imbalance between generation and load to become very significant.
Date: September 18, 2009
Creator: Lu, Shuai; Makarov, Yuri V.; McKinstry, Craig A.; Brothers, Alan J. & Jin, Shuangshuang
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
open access

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Description: Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the informatio… more
Date: September 30, 2005
Creator: Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A. & Chin, George
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
open access

Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Enhancing a Facility-Level Model for Proliferation Resistance Assessment of a Nuclear Enegry System

Description: The Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment project (PL09-UtilSocial) investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessments, including nonproliferation assessments, Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about a host State and its posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system (NES) to an u… more
Date: October 26, 2009
Creator: Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Olson, Jarrod & Thompson, Sandra E.
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
open access

Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

Description: This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval … more
Date: September 29, 2011
Creator: Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Wood, Thomas W.; Daly, Don S.; Brothers, Alan J. et al.
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
open access

Utility of Social Modeling in Assessment of a State’s Propensity for Nuclear Proliferation

Description: This report is the third and final report out of a set of three reports documenting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Security Administration (NASA) Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program that investigates how social modeling can be used to improve proliferation assessment for informing nuclear security, policy, safeguards, design of nuclear systems and research decisions. Social modeling has not to have be… more
Date: June 1, 2011
Creator: Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Dalton, Angela C.; Olson, Jarrod; White, Amanda M. et al.
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
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